RB Salzburg vs LiverpoolUEFA Champions League, KO: 17:55 Dec 10, 2019, Red Bull Arena
Calculators at the ready! It looks like it’s going to be a night of high drama in Group E on Tuesday.
Arguably, Napoli are in the box seat. Although a point behind Liverpool, the Italians just need to avoid defeat at home, to the weakest team in the group, Genk to ensure a their passage to the last 16.
But things are a bit more complicated for Liverpool and Red Bull Salzburg. The defending champions will go through if they avoid defeat in Austria, or if Napoli lose at home to bottom side Genk.
Salzburg will go through if they win against Liverpool and Napoli don’t beat Genk. If Napoli win, Salzburg must beat Liverpool by a better scoreline than the 4-3 by which they lost against them on Matchday 2.
Clear as mud? OK, let’s go.
I had the pleasure of recording a Champions League Podcast with Greg on Monday and this match was one we previewed, primarily focusing on goals, as you would expect.
Salzburg have netted 16 times already this season in Group F including three at Anfield in that aforementioned match. Domestically they’ve now scored 64 in 17 league matches and boast an unbeaten start to their campaign.
Liverpool have also found a bit of goalscoring form in their last few matches. It’s hard to be critical of Liverpool, they’ve been relentless so far this season in the league, but they hadn’t been putting teams away – prior to the Merseyside derby seven of their last eight league wins were by a single goal and they’d only scored more than two in one of those wins (3-1 v Man City).
But they’ve now struck eight in the last two and will need to have their shooting boots on in Austria to reach the last 16.
Salzburg are 29/10 to win the match but I don’t think there’ll be many takers at that price, despite their tremendous home form and impressive showing in the Champions League so far.
It’s almost inconceivable for Liverpool to exit the competition at this stage but the issue for us punters is that a draw will suffice, so the 4/5 odds on an away are a lot less attractive than they’ve normally be.
So it’s all about goals for the main bet, and Over 3.5 still looks reasonable value at 19/20, having already been 1/1 earlier on Monday. Four of Salzburg’s five group matches saw that bet land. And since they may need to better a 4-3 scoreline they'll need to go for this, which could leave them exposed at the oher end of the park.
It would be remiss of me no to mention Erling Braut Håland. The 19-year-old has broken all sorts of Champions League records already and on Tuesday has the chance to score in all six group matches. He’s 9/2 to open the scoring.
This UEFA Champions League match between RB Salzburg and Liverpool will be played on Dec 10, 2019 and kick off at 17:55