The Estadio do Dragao hosts the first O Classico of the Primeira Liga season on Sunday evening as Porto welcome Benfica. It is the headline fixture of the Portuguese calendar, and this edition comes with both sides unbeaten in the league and carrying plenty of early-season narrative.
Porto arrive in immaculate form. They have won all seven league matches under Francesco Farioli, scoring 19 goals and conceding only once. Their defensive record is extraordinary, giving up just 12 shots on target across the entire campaign.
That base of control is reflected in the xPTS table, where Porto sit first on 15.4 expected points, slightly outperforming but backed by strong underlying data. Their away win at Sporting in August underlined their big-game credentials, while comprehensive victories over Arouca, Rio Ave and Casa Pia showed they can dominate against weaker opponents as well.
Benfica enter the clasico under new management, with Jose Mourinho taking charge in September. His opening games have been mixed: organised wins over AVS and Gil Vicente, a draw with Rio Ave, and a narrow Champions League defeat at Chelsea.
His side look compact, conceding just three goals in four matches, but have been less fluent in attack, creating only six goals in that period. On the season as a whole they sit third for xPTS on 14.3, also running a little ahead of their numbers, and their 21 big chances created is notably fewer than Porto’s 29.
The rivalry ensures intensity regardless of form, but the profiles are clear. Porto are efficient and ruthless at both ends, while Benfica are still bedding into Mourinho’s more conservative style. The Dragao has historically been a tough venue for them, and the league leaders will expect to assert themselves again in front of their own fans.
How the bookies view it: Hosts slight favourites
Porto are slight favourites at 11/10, which implies a 47.6% chance of victory, while Benfica are 11/4 outsiders at 26.7% and the draw is 5/2 at 28.6%. The goals markets suggest a balanced outlook, with over 2.5 priced at 1/1 (50%) and both teams to score at 4/5 (55.6%). That aligns with the underlying data: Porto have been clinical, creating 29 big chances with a 17% conversion rate, while Benfica rely on high box volume with 243 touches but have been less efficient.
Head-to-head games at the Dragao average 2.69 goals, so the market’s split between a controlled Porto win and a more open contest with goals reflects both teams’ profiles.
Head to Head: Porto hold the edge
Across the last 20 meetings between Porto and Benfica, Porto hold the edge with 11 wins, two draws and seven defeats, scoring 32 goals to Benfica’s 23 at an average of 2.75 goals per game. The clasico has often produced decisive results rather than stalemates, with just two draws in that span.
Recent seasons underline the volatility: Benfica won 4-1 at the Dragao in April 2025 and 4-1 at home in November 2024, but Porto recorded a thumping 5-0 win in March 2024 and a 3-0 victory in December 2021.
Matches are usually competitive, averaging 1.6 goals for Porto and 1.15 for Benfica, but momentum can swing sharply, making this rivalry unpredictable despite Porto’s narrow statistical superiority.
Players to watch: Sainz to score
Borja Sainz has been one of Porto’s most consistent attacking outlets this season and looks a strong candidate to deliver in O Classico. He has attempted 22 shots across seven league games, averaging over three per match, and hit the target nine times.
That reliability makes at least one shot on target a high-percentage play, particularly given his tendency to cut inside and test the goalkeeper from both wings. His underlying numbers back this up: 1.8 xG and 20 shot-creating actions show he is constantly involved in Porto’s final-third play, while he has already scored twice and added two assists.
Against Benfica, who average over 14 fouls a game and often struggle to contain direct wide players, Sainz should get opportunities to shoot both from open play and set-piece situations. With Porto in ruthless form and creating 29 big chances this season, Sainz is a good bet to multiply shots and find the net.
Predicted line-ups
FC Porto (4-3-3): Costa, Fernandes, Bednarek, Kiwior, Moura, Froholdt, Varela, Veiga, Pepe, Aghehowa, Sainz
Benfica (4-2-3-1): Trubin, Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl, Barrenechea, Rios, Lukebakio, Sudakov, Aursnes, Pavlidis
Anything else catch the eye?
For betting purposes, Porto double chance, Porto to score, over 1.5 match goals and Porto over two corners all carry strong statistical support.
Starting with the match outcome, Porto are unbeaten this season and their underlying numbers back that run. They have generated 6.3 shots on target per game, second highest in the league, and rank second for shot conversion at 17 percent. Benfica, by contrast, average 5.9 shots on target but convert at a lower 12 percent. Porto’s edge in attacking efficiency makes the double chance a safer route in a fixture where home advantage has often mattered.
On goals, over 1.5 looks secure. O Classico matches at the Dragao average 2.69 goals across the last 13, and Porto themselves average 2.71 goals for per league game this season. Even with Mourinho’s emphasis on structure, Benfica’s matches have still cleared 1.5 in three of his first four outings. Porto’s volume of 29 big chances created also points strongly towards at least one home goal.
Corners are another angle to consider. At home this season Porto average 6.3 corners won per match, never dropping below five. Benfica away average just 2.3, leaving them with a -1.67 supremacy on the road. Porto’s aggressive wide play and higher possession share at home makes them far more likely to rack up set-piece opportunities.
Even though odds are not yet available and markets for O Classico cards are sometimes limited, if they do appear then several angles stand out. Benfica 3+ cards has been a consistent winner, landing in 10 of their last 12 league visits to the Dragao and averaging 4.4 per game across the last 13 in Porto.
Over 0.5 first-half cards is a near-certainty in this fixture, with 15 of the last 20 clasico meetings producing at least two bookings before the break. Both sides over 1.5 cards each is also strong, hitting regularly given that Porto average 13.7 fouls per game and Benfica 14.3.
Finally, the second half almost always explodes in terms of discipline: over 2.5 second-half cards has landed in 19 of the last 20 clashes, with over 3.5 hitting in 16. If the lines are offered, these are historically the most reliable bets on the card markets.
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