Serie A serves up a Tuscan derby on Monday as Pisa host Fiorentina at the Arena Garibaldi. Both sides are still without a win this season, and with early pressure building at the bottom of the table, the stakes are already high.
Pisa arrive in 19th place with just one point from four matches. They earned a respectable 1–1 draw away at Atalanta on the opening weekend but have since lost to Roma, Udinese, and Napoli. Encouragingly, they scored twice away to the champions in Naples last time out, showing their attack is starting to click. Underlying numbers back that up: they have generated 4.3 xG, placing them mid-table, and have created nine big chances which is the sixth-highest in Serie A. Their problem is finishing, converting only three goals. xPTS suggests they should have close to five points rather than one, underlining how costly that wastefulness has been.
Fiorentina are only marginally better off, sitting 17th with two points from four games. They started with away draws at Cagliari and Torino but have since fallen to home defeats against Napoli and Como. The Viola’s xPTS total is 4.4, so they are roughly where performances suggest they deserve to be. Defensive fragility has been their undoing, conceding 6.7 xGA, one of the worst in the league.
Both clubs are in transition: Pisa are adjusting to life back in the top flight, while Fiorentina are under scrutiny after a poor start that has fuelled questions about their attacking identity. With neither side convincing, this derby feels like a chance to change momentum. Pisa need to turn their chance creation into goals, while Fiorentina must tighten up at the back. The setting, the rivalry, and the table make this an important clash so early in the campaign.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Fiorentina go into Monday’s Tuscan derby as slight favourites at 13/10, which implies a 43.5% chance of victory. Pisa are priced at 12/5, a 29.4% probability, while the draw is 23/10, equal to 30.3%. That spread highlights how evenly matched these sides look after four winless games each. The goals markets also point towards caution. Over 2.5 goals is set at 13/10, or a 43.5% chance, suggesting bookmakers expect a tight contest rather than an open one. Both teams to score is offered at evens, implying 50%, reflecting the fact both sides have managed only three goals so far. With margins so narrow and no clear form advantage, the market leans towards a low-scoring derby where either side could finally edge a first win.
Head to Head: First meeting in 35 years
Fiorentina have historically held the upper hand in this Tuscan derby, with comfortable wins including back-to-back 4–0 victories in the 1990/91 season and a 3–0 success in 1989. Pisa’s highlight came in November 1987 with a 2–1 home win, while draws were a recurring theme at the Arena Garibaldi in the 1980s, including 0–0 stalemates in 1983, 1984, and 1988.
Fiorentina also enjoyed success in the 1968/69 campaign, winning 3–1 at home and 1–0 away, and edged Pisa 2–1 in Florence in 1983. Overall, while Fiorentina’s dominance is clear, Pisa’s record on home soil shows they have often managed to frustrate their neighbours, with several tight contests balancing out the history of heavier defeats in Florence.
Players to watch: Back Mandragora to test Pisa
Rolando Mandragora looks a good option for 1+ shot on target in Fiorentina’s upcoming match. The midfielder has quietly built a useful record across four games this season, landing four shots on target from ten attempts.
He has already scored twice, including strikes against Cagliari and Como, showing a willingness to step into advanced positions despite starting from central areas. His xG total of 0.8 is solid for a midfielder, and he has attempted at least one shot in every start. Mandragora also contributes with ball progression, recording 77 carries and eight progressive passes, which helps him arrive on the edge of the box.
Fiorentina’s attack has been blunt overall, but Mandragora has been a rare bright spot, ranking among their more reliable shooters. With consistent involvement and a proven ability to test goalkeepers, 1+ shot on target looks a sensible and data-backed play.
Predicted line-ups
Pisa (3-5-2): Semper, Caracciolo, Canestrelli, Marin, Leris, Akinsanmiro, Nzola, Aebischer, Moreo, Lusuardi, Bonfanti
Fiorentina (4-4-2): De Gea, Fortini, Pongracic, Ranieri, Gosens, Mandragora, Nicolussi Caviglia, Fazzini, Kean, Piccoli
Anything else catch the eye?
Fiorentina on the double chance, under five total goals, and over five corners combine into a strong bet supported by the numbers.
Starting with the result, Fiorentina have been more resilient away than at home. They drew 0–0 at Torino and 1–1 at Cagliari, conceding only once across those matches. Pisa, by contrast, have lost both home fixtures without scoring. The underlying data reflects this pattern: Fiorentina allow an average of 13.25 shots per game on the road but only 2.9 xG. Pisa have produced just 1.1 xG at home and remain goalless in front of their supporters. That makes the Viola the safer side to avoid defeat.
The goals market also leans low. Pisa have scored three in four games, Fiorentina the same, both ranking bottom five for shot conversion. Fiorentina have created only five big chances, Pisa nine, yet neither side is finishing. Across their combined eight matches, six have ended under 2.5 goals. With neither attack clinical, backing under five in a bet builder is supported by process and outcomes.
Corners provide the final leg. Pisa games average 11 total corners, hitting double figures in half of their fixtures. Fiorentina’s average sits lower at nine, but they have already had matches reach 10 and 13. Pisa’s defensive style concedes pressure they allow seven corners against per game ensuring totals are often pushed up. Over five corners is a modest line and has landed in every match either side has played this season.
Put together, the double chance on Fiorentina, under five goals, and over five corners gives balanced exposure: Fiorentina’s road resilience, two blunt attacks, and Pisa’s corner profile all point toward value.
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