Orlando City welcome CF Montreal to Inter & Co Stadium on Saturday in MLS as both teams head into the second half of the season with very different ambitions. Orlando sit fifth in the table, boasting one of the league’s strongest underlying numbers, while Montreal find themselves bottom and searching for a way to climb out of trouble.
At home, Orlando have been consistent and entertaining. They have scored in nine of their ten home games and kept three clean sheets, with eight of those matches producing at least three goals. Their home xG is 1.96, showing they create plenty of quality chances, and they have conceded just 1.01 xGA, underlining a strong defensive base.
Orlando have lost only three of their last eighteen games, though it is worth noting all three of those defeats have come in their last six matches. Montreal’s away form is much shakier. They have failed to score in nearly half of their road games, kept only two clean sheets, and their away xG and xGA figures suggest they concede more and create less than their hosts. Currently sitting 15th in the league, they have been slightly unlucky based on xPTS but still rank well below Orlando in that metric too.
Orlando have also shown better form in recent weeks overall, tightening up at the back with a run of clean sheets. Montreal, on the other hand, continue to concede heavily and have struggled to impose themselves in away fixtures. The numbers and results point strongly toward the hosts having the upper hand in this one.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Orlando are strong favourites for this match, priced at 17/40, which implies around a 71% chance of a home win. The draw is offered at 4/1, suggesting about a 20% chance, while Montreal are clear outsiders at 13/2. The market also leans toward a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals priced at 4/7, reflecting about a 64% likelihood, and both teams to score available at 4/5, implying around 56%. These odds reflect Orlando’s superior form and attacking output at home alongside Montreal’s struggles on the road but also acknowledge the possibility of an open game with goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head record between Orlando City and CF Montreal is remarkably balanced, with Orlando wining 11, Montreal winning 10 and six ending in draws. Orlando have scored 37 goals, while Montreal have scored 36, underlining how evenly matched they have been over the years. However, recent form has favoured Orlando, with Montreal failing to win any of the last five encounters. Matches between the two tend to be open, averaging 2.78 goals per game, and just over half of them have gone over 2.5 goals.
In Orlando, though, the home side has held the advantage, winning seven times compared to Montreal’s four away victories.
Players to watch: Freeman to fire in the shots
Alex Freeman looks a good candidate to take two or more shots in this match given his consistent involvement going forward and the way Montreal defend on the road. Freeman has already taken 20 shots in 16 appearances this season, including 10 in nine home games, showing he is comfortable getting into advanced areas even from deeper positions. He has managed two or more shots in five of his 16 games overall, including two of his eight home starts. Montreal concede an average of nearly 13 shots per away game, which suggests Orlando will have plenty of opportunities to test the keeper. With Orlando likely to dominate possession and Freeman’s willingness to join attacks, another two-shot game is well within reach.
Predicted line-ups
Orlando City (4-2-3-1) Gallese; Freeman, Brekalo, Jansson, Smith; Araujo, Atuesta; Ojeda, Pasalic, Thorhallsson; Muriel
CF Montreal (4-3-3) Sirois; Bugaj, Pearce, Craig, Bugaj; Piette, Loturi, Petrasso; Clark, Sealy, Owusu
Anything else catch the eye?
Orlando to win and over 2.5 goals looks a good bet because their home games are rarely dull, and Montreal tend to collapse defensively when under pressure. Orlando have been able to open up opponents, and they rarely settle for narrow wins. Montreal’s habit of conceding at least two goals on the road while offering little threat of their own often turns their matches into open, one-sided affairs.
Even when Montreal do score, their defence almost guarantees chances for the other team. Orlando have players capable of exploiting that space and sustaining pressure throughout the match. Their ability to keep pushing even when ahead makes the over a strong complement to the win. The visitors’ inconsistency away from home, combined with Orlando’s willingness to attack, suggests this could be another high-scoring game in which the home side take all three points.
GambleAware