AC Milan ended Napoli’s 16-match domestic unbeaten run and the champions need to bounce back as soon as they face Genoa, as the title race this season already feels a lot more competitive.
A De Bruyne-Hojlund masterclass led Napoli to their first Champions League win of the season, also extending their undefeated streak at home to 14 matches. The Partenopei have to work on their away performances, as defending the title will be impossible otherwise. They needed a boost in confidence after losing two out of three and giving AC Milan the leading position in the table.
But Genoa have often made Napoli’s life miserable in recent years, although it seems less likely this time. The Red-Blues are yet to win a Serie A match this season and the tensions must be high after the recent 3-0 defeat at home to Lazio. The only positive so far is their performance in Coppa Italia, where they qualified for the 1/8 finals. Patrick Vieira needs a win to relieve some of the tension, as this 2-point tally after five rounds is up there with the team’s worst season start of the 21st century.
How the bookies view it: The Partenopei are firm favourites
The Partenopei have always been betting favourites against Genoa, but the odds are seriously one-sided this time. You can back Napoli at 1/2, the draw at 3/1, or Genoa at 7/1.
Recent head-to-head: Napoli are unbeaten in 15 home H2Hs
While Genoa last beat Napoli nearly half a decade ago, they have been a tough nut to crack and managed to reach three draws in the last five H2Hs. But the overall stats favour Napoli, as that win 4.5 years ago was Genoa’s only triumph in the last 24 H2Hs.
Players to watch: De Bruyne has arrived
Seeing Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Hojlund together in Napoli was on nobody’s bingo card but they’ve created a deadly tandem in just a couple of months. And while we can’t yet pick Hojlund with confidence, we can definitely back De Bruyne to get on the scoresheet with a goal or an assist again. He’s been phenomenal for club and country this season, and will have a lot of freedom against Genoa’s confused defence line.
Probable line-ups
Napoli: Meret, Di Lorenzo, Spinazzola, Jesus, Beukema, Lobotka, Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay, Hojlund
Genoa: Leali, Norton-Cuffy, Ostigard, Martin, Vasquez, Masini, Frendrup, Ellertsson, Malinovskyi, Vitinha, Colombo
Anything else catch the eye?
While Genoa are the current lowest-scoring side in Serie A, the last few H2Hs suggest we could see some action. The last four, in particular, featured goals from both sides. Antonio Conte’s side looked much better at the start of the campaign, but conceded at least one goal in each of the last five matches. Moreover, they conceded 2+ goals in three out of five games.
With this in mind, we believe that Napoli will find their way to the win, but adding BTTS to the mix could bring us great profit. Alternatively, we can play it safe with Napoli & Over 1.5 goals, but we’re chasing real wins here and the odds are almost too good to be true.
GambleAware