Mexico head into the quarterfinals as strong favourites after topping Group A on goal difference, finishing unbeaten with two wins and a draw. Their 0-0 draw with Costa Rica to close out the group was controlled rather than conservative, they won the xG 1.16 vs 0.35 and looked composed throughout.
Over the three games, they scored five, conceded two, and posted strong metrics across the board: 3.9 xG and just 1.3 xGA, which shows they have managed both ends of the pitch effectively.
They opened with a 2-0 win over Suriname, restricting them to just 0.18 xG, and followed it up with a 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic in a match where the scoreline flattered their opponents. Mexico managed 1.45 xG in that game and never looked like losing control. Javier Aguirre’s team have rotated players, kept shape, and shown they can adapt their style based on the opponent. With Montes threatening on set pieces and the defence consistently limiting big chances, they look well set for a knockout run.
Saudi Arabia come into this as underdogs after finishing second in Group D. Their numbers are not poor: 3.9 xG and 2.0 xGA, but they have only managed two goals from three matches. A narrow 1-0 loss to the USA saw them register just one shot on target, and despite a dominant xG showing against Trinidad, they only came away with a draw. Their approach is organised and compact, but they have yet to show the quality needed to take advantage of their spells of control.
Mexico have the tactical structure and attacking edge to punish wastefulness, and unless Saudi Arabia are significantly more clinical, this should be a match Mexico manage on their terms.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Bookmakers have priced Mexico at 10/21 to win in 90 minutes, which implies around a 67% chance. The draw is 31/10, while Saudi Arabia are out at 6/1, reflecting their clear underdog status.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is available at 11/10, indicating that a high-scoring game is seen as slightly less likely than not. Both teams to score is priced at 127/100, which also leans toward “no” being favoured.
These odds suggest bookies expect a relatively controlled performance from Mexico, with Saudi Arabia likely struggling to score.
Recent head-to-head: Mexico hold the upper hand
Mexico have never lost to Saudi Arabia. The only draw was in June 1998 (0‑0). They have won five out of six, including a tight 2‑1 World Cup win in November 2022 and thrashing them twice in Confederations Cups (5‑0 and 5‑1).
Players to watch: Raul rampant
Raul Jimenez has quietly put together a strong tournament. Across the three group matches, he has recorded 1.4 xG from just 142 minutes of action, showing he is consistently getting into high-value positions. That works out to a rate of over 0.9 xG per 90 minutes, which is elite output, even in a limited sample.
He is averaging 3.38 shots per 90 and has hit the target four times already, giving him a shots on target rate of roughly 2.5 per 90. Despite not playing a full match yet, he scored against Dominican Republic and continues to be heavily involved whenever he is on the pitch.
With Mexico expected to dominate the ball and create chances against a Saudi Arabia side that allowed 2.30 xGA to Trinidad, Jimenez should have more opportunities in this quarter-final. If he starts, which looks likely, he should play longer minutes and lead the line as the primary goal threat.
Given his current output, markets like two or more shots on target or over 2.5 total shots hold clear value. He is getting chances, pulling the trigger regularly, and has already been rewarded once. Against a defence that will sit deep and invite pressure, the volume should be there again.
Predicted line-ups
Mexico (4-3-3): Malagon; Reyes, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Alvarez, Ruiz, Alvarado; Vega, Jimenez, Quinones
Saudi Arabia (4-3-3): Alaqidi; Majrashi, Al Amri, Madu, Boushal; Al Johani, Al Hassan, Abudulhamid; Al Buraikan, Al Obood, Al Sahafi
Anything else catch the eye?
Mexico to win to nil looks like a strong angle in this quarter-final given the balance of recent performances and underlying metrics. Across the group stage, Mexico conceded just two goals and allowed only 1.3 xGA in total, with their most disciplined showing coming in a 0-0 draw against Costa Rica, where they restricted them to just 0.35 xGA. They also shut out Suriname with minimal fuss, allowing only one shot on target and 0.18 xGA.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, have struggled to convert their limited attacking output into goals. They have scored just twice in the tournament, one against Haiti and one in a 1-1 draw with Trinidad & Tobago, despite facing some fairly modest defences. They failed to score against the USA, managing just three shots and one on target in that match, and generated only 0.30 xG. That is a clear warning sign heading into a match against a better organised and more physical Mexico side.
Tactically, Saudi Arabia will likely sit deep and try to hit on the counter, but Mexico have shown the patience and structure needed to control these types of games. If they score first, they are more than capable of closing it down. Given the match-up and current odds, backing Mexico to win without conceding offers clear value.
GambleAware