Marseille host Ajax in the second round of the UCL League Phase after both sides lost their opening games to Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Having met in the Europa League group stage in 2023 and producing back-to-back thrillers with 13 goals total, you have every right to expect this match to be full of highlights.
Despite losing their opening match, Marseille achieved back-to-back domestic triumphs over Strasbourg and PSG since then and should feel confident. Moreover, losing to Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu is nothing out of the ordinary, and the Olympians weren’t playing bad at all. There are other causes for concern, however, as Marseille have not had much success in the Champions League in recent years. In fact, they won only one of their last 19 group stage fixtures, losing 16 times.
A regular in UEFA’s competitions, Ajax have not played in the CL since 2022/23, when they barely finished third in their group. But exactly like their opponents, the Sons of the Gods can boast a strong domestic form, where they remain unbeaten after seven Eredivisie rounds. However, their good form only extends to the home matches, as Ajax are yet to win away from home this season, having had three draws.
How the bookies view it: The Olympians to claim the points
Although Ajax have more Champions League experience overall, bookies lean heavily towards Marseille, giving them just 1/2 to win on Tuesday. The draw is priced at 7/2, while you can back Ajax at 19/4.
Recent head-to-head: Best rivalry of 2023
The last couple of clashes between Marseille and Ajax were quite extraordinary. Their rivalry dates back to the early 70s in the same competition, but they last met in 2023/24 in the Europa League group stage. The first match ended 3-3 in Amsterdam, before Marseille snatched the three points in the rematch with a stoppage time winner for 4-3. Another important stat is that every single encounter has featured goals from both sides. And in total, the seven matches between them produced 32 goals.
Players to watch: Aubameyang punished Ajax five times
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang returned to Marseille after one season in Saudi Arabia and will be stoked to meet Ajax again. At 36 years old, he is no longer as consistent in his performances, but has already scored three goals for Marseille in five appearances in Ligue 1.
We will back Aubameyang to score against Ajax due to his experience against this rival. Back in 2023/24 when the teams met, he scored five of Marseille’s seven goals across the two legs. First, he scored a brace in Amsterdam, and then a hat-trick at Stade Velodrome. He played only 30 minutes against Strasbourg last week and scored a goal, so we expect him to be back in the starting line-up this time.
Probable line-ups
Marseille: Rulli, Palmieri, Medina, Balerdi, Pavard, Hojbjerg, O’Riley, Weah, Gomes, Greenwood, Aubameyang
Ajax: Jaros, Wijndal, Baas, Sutalo, Gaaei, Klaassen, Taylor, McConnell, Edvardsen, Werghorst, Godts
Anything else catch the eye?
Marseille’s Champions League record is against them, whether we look at the percentage of wins or the number of goals they conceded. For instance, the Olympians kept their sheet clean only once in their last 20 CL games. This and Ajax’s goalscoring abilities influenced us to pick BTTS for this fixture. But we also expect Marseille to find the net more times and claim the three points, mainly due to Ajax’s bad away form.
GambleAware