MANCHESTER CITY are the Champions League favourites but they could find Atletico Madrid a tough nut to crack when they take on the Spanish champions in the quarter-finals.
Having lost out in last year's final to Chelsea, the bookies think Pep Guardiola's men will finally get their hands on Europe's biggest prize this season, with McBookie making them just 15/8 in the outrights.
Atletico are as big as 22/1 but Diego Simeone's men have made a habit of upsetting the odds and have a better recent Champions League record than City, having reached the final in 2014 and 2016.
They also won in Manchester in the last 16, beating United 1-0 at Old Trafford to justify my faith in them, and have hit form at the ideal time, winning their last six in all competitions.
So I'm surprised to see Manchester City as such heavy favourites to qualify, although some of their performances in the Champions League have been pretty impressive this season.
A thumping 5-0 win away to Sporting Lisbon in the last 16 summed up how dangerous Guardiola's men can be when they hit top gear but they also lost to PSG and RB Leipzig in the group stage.
So the Premier League champions will have to make sure they are on top of their game if they want to see off Simeone's street fighters.
How the bookies view it
Atletico Madrid have been pretty much written off, with the La Liga champions 3/1 at Bet365 to qualify and a whopping 9/1 with SBK for a win at the Etihad. Manchester City's best price to reach the semi-finals is just 1/4 at Paddy Power and they are a tiny 3/8 with SBK for a victory in this first leg. The draw pays a best 41/10 with the same firm.
Head to head
These sides have never faced off in European competition but Man City's record against Spanish opposition is patchy, winning eight and losing nine of their 21 matches. They can take heart from last season's quarter-finals, where they saw off Real Madrid, winning 2-1 at the Etihad (below) after a triumph by the same score at the Etihad.
Players to watch
Raheem Sterling has been back to his best this season, with the England winger netting 16 times for club and country. I backed him for a goal at the weekend only for the City star to provide two assists instead against Burnley. Sterling is 32/19 with SBK for anytime scorer here while Paddy Power price him at 13/5 for another assist.
Joao Felix was Atletico's most dangerous player in the win at Old Trafford and Atletico will rely on his pace and dribbling to give them an outlet at the Etihad. The Portuguese star netted twice in the weekend win over Alaves and is a bit overpriced at 26/5 with SBK for a goal here.
Anything else catch the eye?
I'd expect Simeone to park the bus and frustrate Guardiola's free-flowing side. How the game pans out will depend on if City can make an early breakthrough but I'd be surprised if we saw a lot of goals. Under 2.5 strikes pays 19/17 with SBK and that looks like the smartest bet.
Backing Manchester City for a win to nil also stands a decent chance and that pays a best 23/20 with Unibet. The corner market is also worth a look with Atletico defending deep and backing City to win over 7.5 corners pays 31/20 with the same firm.
Simeone is a master of the dark arts so betting on cards is another good option. I've yet to see any markets for cards but Unibet are offering 7/10 on over 11.5 Atletico fouls and that looks good for accas. They also have some interesting player bets and the 11/10 on offer for Jack Grealish having a shot on target is tempting if the playmaker starts.
This UEFA Champions League match between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid will be played on Apr 5, 2022 and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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