World Cup qualifying resumes on Thursday night at the Stade de Luxembourg as the hosts welcome Northern Ireland in a Group C clash.
Luxembourg arrive under pressure after a disappointing Nations League campaign where they finished bottom of their group with three draws and three defeats. They scored just three times in six games, and while they drew 2-2 at home to Northern Ireland, that was the only match in which they managed more than one goal.
Ranked 92nd by FIFA, Luxembourg’s recent record is patchy. They did enjoy a morale-boosting friendly win over Sweden in March, but goalless draws against the Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria underline their lack of cutting edge. The absence of Gerson Rodrigues, who has been central to their attacking play in recent years, leaves them light in forward areas.
Northern Ireland come into this with confidence after topping their Nations League group. They won three of their six games, scoring 11 times and conceding only three, with standout wins including 5-0 at home to Bulgaria. Their away form remains a concern, with no competitive away wins in five matches, but they have looked more dangerous under Michael O’Neill’s latest spell in charge.
The likes of Conor Bradley and Shea Charles have stepped up as leaders, while experienced names like Jonny Evans have retired, giving the squad a fresher, more youthful feel. With promotion secured and momentum behind them, they will expect to take advantage of Luxembourg’s struggles.
How the bookies view it: Norn Iron favourites
Northern Ireland are priced at 5/4, which implies a 44% chance of victory, while Luxembourg are 3/1 outsiders at 25% and the draw is 21/10, giving it a 32% chance. The market clearly sees the visitors as favourites, though not by a wide margin, with the draw considered a strong possibility. Goals are expected to be limited, with over 2.5 goals at 2/1 equating to just a 33% chance, while both teams to score is 7/5, or around 42%.
Head to Head: Visitors hold the upper hand
Northern Ireland and Luxembourg have met six times since 2012, with Northern Ireland winning three, Luxembourg taking one victory, and two games ending level. Luxembourg’s only success came in September 2013 when they claimed a famous 3-2 World Cup qualifying win at home.
Since then, Northern Ireland have had the upper hand, winning three of the last four meetings, including a 2-0 Nations League victory in September 2024 and a 3-1 friendly in Luxembourg in 2022. The most recent clash finished 2-2 in Luxembourg last November, showing the hosts can still trouble them. Overall, Northern Ireland have scored 11 goals to Luxembourg’s seven in this fixture, and they have managed two or more goals in three of the last four encounters.
Players to watch: McCann to make numerous fouls
Ali McCann looks a strong candidate to commit at least two fouls when Northern Ireland face Luxembourg. His playing style is combative and his numbers back it up. For Preston last season he committed 43 fouls in 28 games, averaging 1.54 per match, and he has already made seven fouls in four league games this season.
Internationally the rate is even higher. In the Nations League campaign, he made 10 fouls in just 281 minutes, which equates to over three per 90. Crucially, when these sides met in November 2024, McCann committed four fouls in 75 minutes, showing how he can struggle against Luxembourg’s technical midfield.
With Northern Ireland unlikely to dominate possession in Luxembourg City, McCann’s defensive workload will increase, and his track record suggests fouls are inevitable.
Predicted line-ups
Luxembourg (4-4-2): Moris; Dzogovic, Korac, Carlson, Jans; Bohnert, Barreiro, Moreira, V. Thill; Sanches, Sinani
Northern Ireland (3-4-2-1): Peacock-Farrell; McConville, McNair, Hume; Bradley, McCann, S. Charles, Saville; Galbraith, Price; D. Charles
Anything else catch the eye?
Northern Ireland -0.25 on the Asian Handicap looks the smart play given the contrast in underlying numbers between these two sides. Luxembourg’s last six competitive home games have produced just five goals, and in that spell, they have averaged 0.65 xG per match. Their shot volume is also modest: fewer than nine attempts per game, with only 2.7 on target. Without Gerson Rodrigues, who contributed five goals in the last World Cup qualifying cycle, they lack a reliable threat.
Northern Ireland, by contrast, have been creating chances consistently. In their Nations League group they generated 11 goals from 9.1 xG, while limiting opponents to only 0.5 xG per game – one of the best defensive records at League C level. They also averaged 13.8 shots per match, of which 4.6 were on target, and they carved out 14 big chances across the six games. Those figures suggest they should find ways to open Luxembourg up.
The head-to-head also leans their way. They beat Luxembourg 2-0 at Windsor Park and were the better side in the 2-2 draw in Luxembourg despite conceding late. Luxembourg have not beaten a side ranked inside FIFA’s top 100 at home in a competitive fixture since 2013, and their xPTS across the Nations League was just 3.6 which was comfortably the lowest in their group.
Northern Ireland’s away record is not flawless, but against a team who fail to score in half of their games, the numbers point toward value on the visitors with the -0.25AH line.
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