The Premier League weekend closes with a heavyweight clash at Anfield on Sunday as Liverpool host Manchester United. These two giants are in very different places both in form and structure, with Arne Slot’s side looking strong at home while Ruben Amorim continues to search for consistency away from Old Trafford.
Liverpool’s record at Anfield remains exceptional. They have lost only three of their last 60 Premier League home games, winning 45 and drawing 12, and have scored in every home fixture this season.
Despite that dominance, Slot’s preparations have been hit by a string of injury problems. Ibrahima Konate remains side lined with a thigh issue, while Alisson and Giovanni Leoni are long-term absentees. There are also fresh doubts over Wataru Endo’s availability after missing international duty, and Ryan Gravenberch was substituted with a minor hamstring concern while playing for the Netherlands.
Manchester United have their own challenges. Under Amorim they have won just 10 of 34 Premier League games, including only three away victories against Fulham, Leicester and Manchester City. On the road their record reads W3-D5-L9, with just two clean sheets and an average of 2.76 match goals per game.
Despite that, Amorim will welcome back some key players with Matheus Cunha, Mason Mount and Diogo Dalot all returning to training, and Noussair Mazraoui could feature after missing the last outing.
Liverpool will look to exploit United’s fragile defence and maintain their superb home record. Amorim’s side will try to counter with pace and pressing, but history is against them as their last visit ended in a heavy defeat. With both managers navigating fitness concerns and tactical uncertainty, Anfield is set for another fierce instalment of this long-standing rivalry.
How the bookies view it: Hosts are big favourites
Liverpool are 8/13 favourites to beat Manchester United, which implies a 62% chance of a home win. The draw at 18/5 gives a 21% probability, while United’s 4/1 price suggests only a 20% chance of victory at Anfield.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 13/25, implying a 66% likelihood of a high-scoring game, and both teams to score at 3/5 points to a 62% chance that each side finds the net.
Those odds fit the recent pattern between these clubs. Eight of the last nine league meetings have seen both sides pick up cards, and goals are rarely in short supply when they meet. Liverpool have scored in every home league match this season, while United’s 17 away games under Amorim have averaged 2.76 goals, with both teams scoring in more than half of them. An open, competitive match looks likely.
Head to Head: Reds hold the advantage
Liverpool and Manchester United have met 20 times since October 2016, with Liverpool holding a clear edge in recent seasons. Across those matches, Liverpool have recorded seven wins, 10 draws, and only three defeats, scoring 40 goals and conceding 18 which is a goal difference of +22, or an average of +1.10 per game.
The last meeting in January 2025 ended 2-2 at Anfield, following a 3-0 Liverpool victory at Old Trafford earlier in the season. In fact, United have beaten Liverpool just once in their last 10 encounters across all competitions. The Reds have often dominated these fixtures, particularly at home, where they have scored 23 goals in the last 7 league meetings at Anfield, including the 7-0 win in March 2023.
Despite occasional close contests, the trend heavily favours Liverpool, who typically control possession, create higher xG, and limit United’s chances effectively in this fixture.
Players to watch: Gravenberch to keep run going
Ryan Gravenberch 1+ shot combined with Liverpool to win and over 1.5 goals looks a strong, data-driven selection. The Dutch midfielder has taken at least one shot in five of his six Premier League appearances, missing out only against Arsenal.
He continues to play a progressive midfield role, averaging seven progressive carries and over 65 touches per match, which regularly puts him in advanced shooting positions around the edge of the box and he has had 10 shots in his six games this term.
Liverpool should control territory and tempo at Anfield, where they have scored two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 home league games. Manchester United’s defensive record under Ruben Amorim remains poor and across 20 Premier League away matches, they have kept only two clean sheets and conceded two or more goals in 10.
With Liverpool expected to create plenty and Gravenberch regularly getting shots away from central areas, this combined bet has clear statistical backing and multiple ways to land.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mamardashvili; Bradley, Van Dijk, Gomez, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Gakpo, Isak.
Manchester Utd (4-4-2): Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, De Ligt, Shaw; Casemiro, Fernandes, Amad; Cunha, Mbeumo, Sesko.
Anything else catch the eye?
Liverpool double chance, over 2.5 goals and both teams to be carded looks a strong combination at Anfield. Slot’s side have been close to unbeatable at home, losing only three of their last 60 league matches, while they have found the net in all of them.
United’s away record under Amorim is weak by comparison with just three wins from 17 league trips and only two clean sheets. Those games have averaged 2.76 goals, with United conceding two or more in eight.
The numbers point firmly to a home-dominated match. Liverpool’s attacking process at Anfield remains one of the best in Europe, producing over 1.9 xG per game and ranking top-three for shots and shots on target in the league. United, by contrast, concede high-quality chances away from home, allowing 14.5 shots and 5.3 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Amorim’s side also give up around 1.37 xG per match on the road. Liverpool have kept only two clean sheets across 11 games in all competitions this season and are giving up 1.09 xGA at Anfield, whilst Utd have just one clean sheet in the Premier League this term.
Cards add further value to this angle. Eight of the last nine meetings between these clubs have seen both teams carded, and referee Michael Oliver, who averages 2.16 cards per game this season, rarely lets high-intensity fixtures pass without discipline. He has taken charge of this fixture five times before and averages 5.14 cards. Both teams rank in the league’s top half for fouls and yellow cards per game.
With Liverpool’s attacking depth and Anfield dominance, even with injuries to Konate and Alisson, they should at least avoid defeat. United’s front line, boosted by the return of Mount and Cunha, should create moments of threat, ensuring the over 0.5 goal line is comfortably cleared.
The rivalry, intensity, and recent discipline trends make both teams to be carded a realistic outcome, completing what looks a data-backed, well-balanced betting combination.
Liverpool vs Manchester Utd Betting Tips & Predictions
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