While Canada have already secured their place in the play-offs, Honduras and Curacao meet in a decisive fixture for the other spot in the CONCACAF Gold Cup knockout stages.
As the group stage comes to a close, only one point separates Honduras and Curacao, and both sides seem almost completely equal. But the two sides need different outcomes to reach their goals. Honduras will be happy even with a draw, as they are in front ahead of this match. Curacao, in turn, need the three points at all costs.
Honduras began their participation with a discouraging 6-0 defeat to Canada, but immediately responded with a resounding victory over El Salvador. Curacao produced a tasteless 0-0 with El Salvador and fought their way to a 1-1 with Canada, thus remaining unbeaten in the competition. Los Catrachos boast a solid form, having lost only one official match this year, while Curacao are in similar shape, having lost only one of their last 10 fixtures since September 2024.
How the bookies view it: The symbolic hosts have a clear advantage
Since Honduras are simply the symbolic hosts in this matchup, there is no home advantage to consider here, and bookmakers evaluated the two teams entirely based on form and capabilities. The end result: Honduras are the betting favourites with 5/4, while the draw and Curacao's win are both available at 23/10.
Recent head to head: An exchange of wins
This will be the fourth clash between Honduras and Curacao in the last six years, as the teams met in the same competition in 2019 and twice in the CONCACAF Nations League in 2022. Curacao have the advantage with two wins to one.
Players to watch: Kastaneer needs more playtime
Picking a suitable goalscorer is a tough assignment in this matchup, as both national teams have few players who play in strong leagues or display noteworthy form. Curacao's Gervane Kastaneer will be our pick, but we don't recommend placing any bets before you see the official starting line-ups. Kastaneer has scored seven goals in his last 10 appearances for his country, including four this month in the WC qualifiers. But he played only four minutes against Canada, so he may not make the starting 11 again. But you should definitely watch out for him, especially if he comes out as an early sub.
Probable line-ups
Honduras: Menjivar, Rosales, Martinez, Maldonado, Crisanto, Flores, Arriaga, Rodriguez, Alvarez, Quioto, Benguche
Curacao: Room, Floranus, Eijma, Gaari, Brenet, Roemeratoe, Comenencia, Margaritha, Gorre, Antoniess, Locadia
Anything else catch the eye?
To say the least, both sides lack the firepower to achieve anything in the final stages of the tournament. But they also lack in defence, and we expect to see some action between them. Honduras don't necessarily need the win, especially knowing that Canada will probably pass straight through El Salvador. So, we expect them to score and possibly go back and try to defend the lead.
Curacao will be far more desperate to win the three points, which means we expect a bit more from them than the odds suggest. But their efforts could also leave more space for Honduras' forwards. All in all, we envision at least a goal from both sides and a potential draw.
GambleAware