World Cup qualifying continues on Monday as Gibraltar welcome the Faroe Islands to the Europa Sports Park. The two sides are both outsiders in Group L, but this fixture is an important opportunity to collect points in what is otherwise a tough section alongside Croatia, Czech Republic and Montenegro.
Gibraltar arrive on the back of four straight defeats in the group, conceding heavily to Croatia and Czechia while at least finding a goal in Montenegro. They have not kept a clean sheet in qualifying so far and their xPTS tally sits at the bottom of the group. Their xG output has been very low, often under 0.5 per game, which underlines how difficult they find creating chances against organised defences.
Domestically, several players have remained constant in the squad, but long-serving figures like Roy Chipolina are edging towards the end of their international careers, with Liam Walker now wearing the armband. There has been little turnover otherwise, meaning continuity but also a lack of fresh impact.
The Faroe Islands, meanwhile, make the trip with greater optimism. They edged Gibraltar 2-1 when the sides met in Torshavn in June, and their Nations League form last autumn showed resilience with results against Armenia, Latvia and North Macedonia. Their expected points tally in that group was higher than Gibraltar’s, reflecting a side capable of competing in tight games.
Under Viljormur Davidsen’s captaincy, they have a settled back line and a midfield that works hard to restrict opponents. With no major absentees reported, they look well placed to repeat their June success.
How the bookies view it: Faroe Islands favourites
Gibraltar are priced at 11/2 (implied probability of 15.4%) to claim their first win over the Faroe Islands, with the draw at 14/5 (26.3%). The Faroes remain firm favourites at 61/100 (62.1%), reflecting their superior record in this fixture.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is available at 6/4 (40%), while both teams to score is priced at 31/20 (39.2%), suggesting the bookmakers expect a competitive game but still lean towards the Faroes keeping control.
Head to Head: Visitors strong
The head-to-head record between Gibraltar and the Faroe Islands clearly favours the Faroes, who have won two of the three meetings and remain unbeaten in the fixture. Their most recent clash came in June 2025 World Cup qualifying, when the Faroes claimed a 2-1 victory in Torshavn.
The sides had previously met in a goalless friendly in March 2022, while the first encounter back in 2014 ended in a convincing 4-1 win for the Faroes. Overall, the Faroes have scored seven goals across these matches compared to just two for Gibraltar, underlining the gap that has existed whenever the nations have faced each other.
Players to watch: Arni should be backed
Arni Frederiksberg looks a strong candidate in the anytime scorer market for the Faroe Islands against Gibraltar. He has already found the net in this qualifying campaign, scoring the opener when these sides met in Torshavn in June. His role is central to the Faroes’ attacking output, operating high on the left where he constantly looks to cut inside or deliver from wide areas.
In just three qualifiers he has produced four shots, two on target, and attempted 20 crosses, highlighting how frequently he is involved in their final-third play. Gibraltar’s defence has been fragile, conceding at least twice in three of their four group matches so far. With Frederiksberg’s combination of shooting volume and set-piece threat, he has a realistic chance of getting on the scoresheet again against opponents he already punished once.
Predicted line-ups
Gibraltar (4-4-1-1): Banda; Ronan, Annesley, Lopes, Britto; Scanlon, Torrilla, Walker, Bent; Richards; De Barr
Faroe Islands (3-4-3): Reynatrod; Faero, Vatnhamar, Edmundsson; Danielsen, Benjaminsen, Olsen, Davidsen; Frederiksberg, Johannesen, Justinussen
Anything else catch the eye?
The most logical way into this game from a betting perspective is to back a Faroe Islands victory with over 1.5 match goals. The Faroes have shown a consistent ability to score against teams at Gibraltar’s level, registering in eight of their last 10 competitive fixtures. Against Gibraltar in June they had 17 shots, six on target and created four big chances, evidence of their capacity to generate opportunities rather than relying on set pieces or luck.
In contrast, Gibraltar allow a high volume of efforts. Across their last six competitive games they have faced an average of 15 shots per match, with over five on target. That pressure tells: they have conceded 18 goals in that period, and only once avoided letting in two or more. The xG against figures are particularly striking, averaging above 2.0 per match in this qualifying campaign. That defensive fragility makes the overs line a natural fit.
The Faroes are also more efficient in turning pressure into goals. Their Nations League campaign saw them average 1.25 xG per game and 4.5 shots on target. While they rarely run up huge scores, they consistently find a way to score more than once against weaker sides. Gibraltar, by contrast, have scored in just one of their last six qualifiers and their xG for has been below 0.4 per game.
When combining the Faroes’ attacking consistency with Gibraltar’s defensive openness, the bet covers both angles: a Faroes win looks likely, and with Gibraltar so often conceding multiple times, over 1.5 goals strengthens the case.
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