The Europa League returns to De Kuip on Thursday night as Feyenoord host Aston Villa in a clash that could shape the group. Both sides began their campaigns in contrasting fashion, with Villa edging past Bologna while Feyenoord fell short away to Braga.
Feyenoord arrive top of the Eredivisie, unbeaten after seven matches. They have taken 19 points from a possible 21 and lead the league on xPTS too, underlining the strength of their performances. Their xG difference is the best in the division, fuelled by consistent attacking outputs of around two xG per game. That said, their European record tells a different story. Braga held them to 0.68 xG, limiting them to just eight attempts, and their Champions League qualifier against Fenerbahçe showed defensive vulnerability, conceding five in Istanbul.
At De Kuip, they remain strong, but recent games hint at some imbalance. Against Heerenveen they conceded 1.2 xGA despite taking the points, and the 3-3 draw at AZ underlined how their back line can be opened up when the pressure rises. News around the club remains positive though, with young talents like Quinten Timber central to their domestic form and the fanbase buoyant about their title chances.
Villa come in off the back of a 1-0 win over Bologna in which they produced steady attacking numbers. Unai Emery has steadied them after a patchy August, with a recent 3-1 league win over Fulham showing more cutting edge. Their European away form under Emery has been mixed, but their compact shape and ability to adapt tactically should serve them well here.
This promises to be a real contrast: Feyenoord’s free-flowing Eredivisie side against Villa’s measured Premier League unit. Both clubs know this fixture could set the tone for the rest of their group stage campaign.
How the bookies view it: Villa to nick it
The market prices the home side at 15/8 (34.8% implied), Villa 6/4 (40%) and the draw 5/2 (28.6%), showing just how evenly matched this contest looks. The goals markets lean towards action, with over 2.5 at 10/11 (52.4%) and both teams to score at 8/11 (57.9%), but the underlying data paints a more cautious picture.
Head to Head: Only second meeting
Feyenoord and Aston Villa have only met once before, a pre-season friendly played in July 2010, which ended in a 3-1 win for Villa. UEFA records show no previous meetings in European competition, so this week’s clash at De Kuip will be their first competitive encounter under UEFA sanction.
Players to watch: McGinn to register a shot
John McGinn has started the season with a clear willingness to shoot from midfield, making him a strong candidate for at least one effort on target. In the Premier League he has registered six shots with two on target in six appearances, including three efforts and a goal against Fulham. His underlying numbers show he is averaging a shot per match despite often being deployed deeper, and he ranks well for shot-creating actions, with 17 across those games.
In Europe he has already delivered, scoring the winner against Bologna on Matchday One of the Conference League with his only shot, which was on target. That brings his total to seven shots, three on target and two goals in all competitions this season.
With his ability to arrive late in the box and test goalkeepers from range, McGinn looks well placed to land 1+ shot on target again.
Predicted line-ups
Feyenoord (4-3-3): Wellenreuther; Read, Watanabe, Jeng, Bos; Targhalline, Timber, Valente; Hadj Moussa, Ueda, Sauer.
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Bogarde; Rogers, Elliott, Guessand; Watkins.
Anything else catch the eye?
The draw-no-bet angle on Aston Villa looks a strong play in this match when weighing up the underlying numbers. While Feyenoord’s Eredivisie record appears impressive, their European data has been underwhelming. In their opener against Braga they managed only five shots, two on target, and posted the lowest xG of any team in the round at 0.27. Despite having 55% possession, they were unable to turn control into real threat.
Villa’s performance metrics paint a different picture. Their first Europa League game against Bologna yielded 17 shots, seven on target, and 1.24 xG. They forced their opponents into two bookings and won a penalty, highlighting how often their forwards draw fouls in advanced areas. That blend of volume and pressure tends to tell over 90 minutes.
In broader terms, Villa’s defensive stability is another factor in their favour. They limited Bologna to 1.2 xG despite ceding phases of possession, showing how well their structure protects the penalty area. Feyenoord’s reliance on box entries rather than volume may struggle against this set-up. Villa have also been creating more big chances domestically, outpacing Feyenoord in shots on target ratio and shots inside the box per game.
On expected points, Feyenoord are overperforming in the Eredivisie by four points, while Villa’s Premier League standing is more in line with their underlying data. That suggests Feyenoord’s results have been flattered by efficient finishing and some favourable variance at the back.
With Villa offering the stronger shot metrics, greater ability to win set pieces and penalties, and a compact defensive structure, siding with them on the draw-no-bet line provides cover against a level game while capitalising on their superior underlying performance. It is the smarter side of the market here.
GambleAware