England face Senegal in an international friendly at the City Ground in Nottingham. While the Three Lions are clear favourites, there are signs that this may not be a straightforward outing. Their recent 1–0 win over Andorra, despite generating 3.35 xG to Andorra’s 0.30, revealed worrying signs of lethargy and a lack of urgency.
Manager Thomas Tuchel did not hold back post-match, admitting the performance fell short of expectations and hinting at changes for the upcoming fixture. With the domestic season just wrapped up, it is no surprise that energy levels are low, and Tuchel is expected to rotate heavily and hand opportunities to fringe players.
That said, England’s form since they last faced Senegal at the 2022 World Cup remains impressive. They have returned W22-D9-L2, scoring 52 goals and conceding only 12—a record that underlines both their consistency and defensive strength. Senegal, ranked 19th in the FIFA standings, are unlikely to pose the same threat they did in Qatar. Manager Thiaw Pape Bouna has named a much-changed, experimental squad, with only two starters remaining from their recent World Cup qualifying win over Togo starting against Ireland. With cohesion and attacking threat likely reduced, the West Africans may struggle to break down England’s typically well-organised defence.
All signs point to a professional but likely low-key performance from England. A narrow win with a clean sheet looks the most plausible outcome, especially given their conservative approach in recent friendlies. While England should come out on top, this fixture has all the markings of a slow-paced, end-of-season friendly where efficiency—not fireworks—will define the outcome.
How the bookies view it: Hosts should win it
Bookmakers have England priced at 2/5 to win Tuesday’s friendly against Senegal, implying a 71% chance of victory. The draw is available at 4/1, while Senegal are 15/2 outsiders, reflecting just an 11% implied chance of an upset. Despite England’s flat 1–0 performance against Andorra, the odds clearly favour their superior squad and overall consistency.
Both Teams to Score is offered at 10/11, showing the market is split on whether Senegal will find the net. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 8/13, implying around a 61% chance of three or more goals in the match.
Head to head: Three Lions hold slight advantage
England and Senegal have faced each other only once in their history, with England securing a comfortable 3–0 victory in the Round of 16 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Goals from Jordan Henderson, Harry Kane, and Bukayo Saka sealed the win in a dominant display, highlighting the Three Lions’ quality and control in that match. As they prepare to meet again in a friendly on 10 June 2025, England hold the clear upper hand in the head-to-head record, with no goals conceded and a clean sheet from their only previous encounter.
Predicted line-ups
England (4-3-3): Henderson; Alexander-Arnold, Colwill, Konsa, Lewis-Skelly; Jones, Rice; Eze, Gibbs-White, Gordon; Toney.
Senegal (4-3-3): Mendy; Mendy, Koulibaly, Diallo, Jakobs; Gueye, Sarr, Camara; Sarr, Ndiaye, Jackson
Players to watch: Ndiaye to cause England back line problems
is one of Senegal’s brightest attacking hopes heading into the friendly against England. While he didn’t manage a shot in their recent 1–1 draw with the Republic of Ireland, he has enjoyed a solid season at Everton, registering 35 shots in 29 starts—highlighting his intent and ability to get into shooting positions. Likely to start as one of the wide forwards in Senegal’s front three, Ndiaye should find opportunities to strike at goal, particularly against a rotated and somewhat experimental England back line at the City Ground. While the other Senegal forwards look unbackable at the current prices, Ndiaye offers some value in goal scorer or shots-based markets, especially given his form, fitness, and role in the team’s attacking structure.
Anything else catch the eye?
England have shown a consistent ability to generate corners under Thomas Tuchel, averaging 8.67 corners per match since he took charge. Across their last nine matches overall, the Three Lions have averaged 7.44 corners, reinforcing the trend. They have recorded four, 10, and 12 corners under Tuchel specifically, and three, four, and eight first-half corners in those same games. Following a lethargic showing against Andorra, Tuchel will be expecting a much sharper performance—and England are likely to respond with a more aggressive, front-foot approach, even if the rotated line up brings some inconsistency.
Lining up in a 4-3-3, England’s natural width should encourage frequent attacks down the flanks, increasing the chances of corner-winning situations. Supporting this, Ireland won eight corners—including five in the first half—against Senegal last week, exposing some vulnerability out wide. With that context, England over two first-half corners and over four match corners looks a strong angle for those targeting set-piece-based value.
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