World Cup qualification continues in Group I with England facing Andorra at Villa Park in Birmingham this Saturday. It is top versus bottom in the group, but Thomas Tuchel will be conscious of the scrutiny after his side laboured to a 1–0 win in Barcelona against the same opponents earlier in the campaign.
England arrive in strong shape overall. They lead the section with three wins from three, defeating Albania 2–0, Latvia 3–0, and Andorra 1–0. Their xPTS of 8.6 reflects a side doing their job efficiently. Defensively they have been excellent, conceding none and limiting opponents to 1.1 xG across the three matches. The question is at the other end. England have scored six goals from 39 shots, well below their 8.4 xG, suggesting wastefulness in front of goal.
Tuchel continues to shuffle his pack, giving Jordan Henderson a start in Barcelona and trialling Morgan Gibbs-White prominently during the friendly with Senegal. Injuries to Phil Foden and Cole Palmer have restricted his attacking combinations, while Harry Kane remains the main source of threat.
Andorra, by contrast, sit bottom after defeats to Latvia and Albania and the narrow reverse against England. Their xPTS of 0.7 highlights the uphill battle they face. They have mustered just four shots on target in three qualifiers, with a combined xG of 0.5. Veteran defender Marc Vales anchors a team whose focus is damage limitation rather than ambition.
The gulf in quality is clear, but the focus for England is to sharpen their cutting edge, deliver a more convincing performance at Villa Park, and keep their perfect record intact.
How the bookies view it: England strong favourites
England go into the qualifier as overwhelming favourites at 1/33, which carries an implied probability of 97.1%, while the draw is priced at 50/1 (about 2%) and Andorra are huge outsiders at 160/1 (around 0.6%).
The gulf in quality is further highlighted by over 2.5 goals at 1/7, implying a 87.5% chance of at least three goals in the game. Both teams to score is 5/1, which suggests only a 16.7% likelihood that Andorra will find the net against England.
Head to Head: Huge gulf in class for England
England and Andorra have met three times in recent World Cup qualifying campaigns, with England winning all three without conceding. In September 2021, Gareth Southgate’s side cruised to a 4–0 victory at Wembley before following it up a month later with a 5–0 win in Andorra la Vella.
Their most recent clash came in June 2025, when Thomas Tuchel’s team were far less convincing but still claimed a 1–0 victory, Harry Kane scoring the decisive goal. Across the three games England have scored 10 goals to Andorra’s none, underlining the gulf in class between the two nations.
Players to watch: Eze to get a start and goal
Eberechi Eze appeals in the anytime goal scorer market given his recent record with England. In just 185 minutes across five internationals, he has attempted 10 shots, averaging one every 18 minutes. That includes a goal against Latvia in March, when he came off the bench for half an hour and found the net with one of his two efforts. He also looked sharp in the 1–0 win away to Andorra, registering two shots with one on target despite only 26 minutes on the pitch.
Even against stronger opposition like Senegal he remained involved, playing the full 90 minutes and drifting into advanced areas. His numbers suggest Tuchel is trusting him higher up the pitch, often in a free role behind Kane. With Andorra likely to sit deep, Eze’s ability to generate volume in limited minutes makes him strong value to score at any time.
Predicted line-ups
England (4-2-3-1): Henderson; Konsa, Stones, Guehi, Livramento; Henderson, Anderson; Bowen, Eze, Madueke; Kane.
Andorra (5-4-1): Alvarez; Borra, Olivera, Llovera, San Nicolas, Garcia; Martinez, Vales, Rebes, Cervos; Fernandez
Anything else catch the eye?
England to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong selection in this qualifier. Tuchel’s side have controlled every game in the group, but goals have not flowed freely. Their three matches so far have finished 2–0, 3–0, and 1–0. All were comfortable wins, and all came in under the 4.5 line.
The numbers support the angle. England average 13 shots per game but only 4.3 on target. They have created four big chances across three qualifiers, with Harry Kane accounting for half of them. They dominate possession but often face low blocks that restrict space in the area.
Andorra’s games are rarely open. Their three qualifiers ended 0–1, 0–3, and 0–1. They average just 29% possession and less than one shot on target per game. Even in heavy defeats, the overall goal tally stays modest, as they break up play and keep numbers behind the ball.
England’s defence adds security. Tuchel’s side have faced only 17 shots in total across qualifying, with five on target. Their xGA sits at 0.36 per game, pointing strongly towards another clean sheet. With attacking injuries limiting fluency and the recent evidence that England are not racking up huge score lines, the most realistic range is 2–0 or 3–0.
Backing England to win and under 4.5 goals looks a pragmatic way to side with the favourites while factoring in the lack of high-scoring games.
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