The Europa Conference League group stage brings together Dynamo Kyiv and Crystal Palace in Lublin on Thursday evening. Kyiv cannot play in Ukraine due to the conflict, so Arena Lublin again serves as their European “home.”
Dynamo arrive unbeaten in the Ukrainian Premier League, sitting second with four wins and three draws from seven matches. They have scored 21 goals, the highest in the league, but defensive issues persist with 10 conceded. Their domestic games are wide open, averaging over four goals per match, and their last three have all ended level in high-scoring draws.
In Europe, the picture is less encouraging. Dynamo were knocked out of Champions League qualifying by Pafos and fell short in the Europa League play-off against Maccabi Tel Aviv. They have won only four of their last 14 European games, almost all against lower-tier opposition, and conceded nearly two goals per match in that run.
Crystal Palace, by contrast, are unbeaten in the Premier League under Oliver Glasner. Three wins and three draws from six games have been built on defensive solidity, with just three goals conceded. Their attack has underdelivered, scoring eight goals from an expected return of over 11, but that suggests their finishing is more likely to improve than regress further. Their xPTS tally of 11.7 is level with Arsenal and above their actual points return, underlining the strength of their performances.
Palace are without major injury concerns and will see this as a chance to put down a marker in their first European campaign. Dynamo have the pedigree but recent results suggest Palace arrive with the more reliable structure, making this one of the standout fixtures of the night.
How the bookies view it: Eagles favourites
The bookmakers make Crystal Palace clear favourites for their Europa Conference League trip to Lublin. Palace are priced at 13/20 to take all three points, reflecting an implied probability of around 60.6%.
Dynamo Kyiv, despite being unbeaten in the Ukrainian Premier League, are outsiders here. They are listed at 9/2, which translates to a 18.2% chance of victory. The draw sits at 13/4, or 23.5% in implied terms.
For goals markets, the numbers suggest a reasonably open contest. Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5 (55.6%), while both teams to score trades at the same price, also carrying a 55.6% probability. That aligns with Dynamo’s domestic record, where their last six league games have all gone over the 2.5 line and seen both sides score.
Head to Head: First meeting
Crystal Palace are making their first ever appearance in European competition this season, so they have not faced Dynamo Kyiv or any other Ukrainian side before.
Players to watch: Sarr on fire
Ismaila Sarr shapes up as a strong anytime scorer option against Dynamo Kyiv. He has four goals in his first seven appearances of the season, making him Crystal Palace’s most reliable attacking outlet. What stands out is his efficiency: just eight shots, with four on target, have produced those four goals, highlighting his clinical edge.
The underlying numbers back him up too, with 2.7 xG across 615 minutes, showing he consistently gets into scoring positions rather than relying on low-percentage efforts. He has also delivered in big moments, scoring against both Aston Villa and Liverpool in recent weeks. Facing a Dynamo side that has conceded in all of their last six league games and average over 1.4 goals against domestically, Sarr looks well placed to extend his run in Europe.
Predicted line-ups
Dynamo Kyiv (4-1-2-3): Morgun, Karavaev, Bilovar, Thiare, Dubinchak, Brazhko, Pikhalyonok, Shaparenko, Voloshyn, Blanuta, Ogundana
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson, Guehi, Lacroix, Richards, Munoz, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell, Pino, Sarr, Mateta
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Crystal Palace to win and under 4.5 goals looks a strong angle for this clash. Palace’s numbers in the Premier League point to controlled performances rather than chaos. They have conceded only three goals in six games, keeping half of those opponents to nil, and no match has produced more than three goals. Their fixtures average just 1.83 goals, the second-lowest in the division.
Palace’s defensive profile is underpinned by restricting chances. They have allowed 73 shots across six matches, but just 28 on target, and the average shot quality faced is modest. Only one opponent has generated more than 1.0 xG against them. That ability to keep games tight contrasts sharply with Dynamo Kyiv’s domestic style, and suggests Palace can keep the hosts in check.
In attack, Palace are due an upswing. They have scored eight from 11.4 xG and hit the target with 28 efforts, indicating finishing variance rather than a lack of creation. Importantly for this market, even if their attack sharpens, it has not produced the kind of volume that points to five-goal contests.
Kyiv’s European results also support the bet. In their last 14 continental matches, 12 finished under 4.5 goals, including 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 defeats to sides of Premier League calibre. They rarely get thrashed, but neither do they turn these fixtures into shootouts. Their average shots tally in Europe is just over 10 per match, well down on their Ukrainian numbers.
Put together, Palace’s efficient defensive structure, their underperforming but steady attack, and Dynamo’s modest European output combine to make Palace to win and under 4.5 goals an appealing, data-driven selection.
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