Scandinavian matchups often produce highlights but the 0-0 draw in the first leg last week left much to be desired. Neither Malmo nor Copenhagen did enough even to deserve the win, leaving the door open for the second leg.
With 0.11 xG for Malmo and 0.58 xG for Copenhagen, last week's match must have felt like a waste of time for viewers. Neither team came close to scoring, with Copenhagen having a single shot on goal in 90 minutes of play. Malmo didn't even hit the target once. Then, both sides suffered defeats in their domestic competitions during the weekend, which makes predicting this rematch even harder.
On paper, both sides are in form. Copenhagen had five wins in a row before the first leg, while Malmo were riding a streak of seven wins in a row. And on paper, both sides are very attack-minded and usually score 2+ goals per game. All hell could break loose if either side comes out with a riskier tactic, so we have higher expectations for the rematch.
How the bookies view it: Copenhagen to finish their business
Bookmakers were not impressed by Malmo's performance in the first leg and priced them as high as 5/1 ahead of the rematch. Copenhagen have a massive betting advantage at 13/20, while the draw is available at 11/4.
Recent head to head: An uneventful 0-0 with zero chances
Copenhagen and Malmo have some history between them and this will be their fourth meeting in an official setting. They met in the Europa League group stage in 2019, when the first leg in Sweden ended level before Malmo won 1-0 away in Denmark. So, the Blue Ones already have some experience beating Copenhagen at Parken Stadium, although it was a long time ago.
Players to watch: Larsson to finally show his domestic form in the CL
Several players have left a mark in Copenhagen and Malmo's recent games, but only Jordan Larsson has shown some consistency since the start of the season. The Swedish striker scored in Copenhagen's last three domestic games but is still to appear in the scoresheets in the Champions League. Keep in mind that this is a risky pick, especially in a high-profile rematch, but it is the best we've got.
Probable line-ups
Copenhagen: Kotarski, Huescas, Pereira, Hatzidiakos, Meling, Lerager, Mattsson, Robert, Larsson, Claesson, Moukoko
Malmo: Olsen, Rosler, Jansson, Duric, Busanello, Larsen, Johnsen, Rosengren, Haksabanovic, Sigurosson, Ali
Anything else catch the eye?
Despite the high expectations, we envision a conservative game in terms of goals. The stakes are too high for risks, and Malmo showed nothing in front of the goal in the first leg. Copenhagen's defence has been close to errorless since the start of the season, with the team maintaining a clean sheet in five out of seven competitive games.
Of course, Scandinavian derbies can be explosive, but we don't imagine more than a couple of goals in this case. We will back the Lions to reach the next stage, possibly through a minimal 1-0, especially if Malmo come out with the same strategy. Copenhagen couldn't find the goal in the first leg but it will be a matter of time if we see a repeat of the same performance from the visitors.
GambleAware