Diego Simeone must be feeling some pressure after his Atletico won only one of their six fixtures in all competitions this season. Fortunately for Los Colchoneros, Rayo Vallecano are in a similar state and haven’t won away at Atletico since 2006.
After losing to Liverpool in stoppage time a week ago, Atletico’s bad run continued on the road at Mallorca, where they missed a penalty and finished the game with 10 men to a 1-1 stalemate. Simeone has every reason to be frustrated with his players, as they lost points because of goals after the 80th minute on three occasions this season. And their effectiveness in the final third has been below standard despite dominating possession and creating dozens of chances.
This is a huge year for Rayo Vallecano, who reached UEFA’s competitions for only the second time in their history and the first since the 2000/21 season. Los Franjirrojos finished 7th last season through a five-match unbeaten streak to end the campaign, but their good form is long gone, as they haven’t won in La Liga since the opening round a month ago.
How the bookies view it: Atletico to remain unbeaten at home
While bookies lean towards Atletico Madrid and the difference is significant, the odds are not that low and still make sense for bets. You can pick Los Colchoneros at 1/2, the draw at 33/10, or Rayo Vallecano at 5/1.
Recent head-to-head: Undefeated for 12 years
To call this rivalry one-sided would be an understatement, as Atletico Madrid have been unbeaten since 2013 when Rayo last won at home. As for away wins, Los Franjirrojos last beat Atletico in 2006, which should give the hosts a lot of confidence. Since 2013, the teams have met a total of 18 times and Atletico won 14 of them. Last season’s edition of the same fixture ended in a 3-0 win for the hosts.
Players to watch: Alvarez can be so much better
Diego Simeone’s strikers and wingers have collectively been underperforming this season, hence the bad results and low number of goals scored. No one has stood out, although there are plenty of world-class players in the squad, making it hard to trust a player with our bets. But if there is one player who’s consistently been above average, it is Julian Alvarez, and we will back him to score against Rayo Vallecano again after his performance in the same fixture last season.
Probable line-ups
Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Hancko, Lenglet, Le Normand, Llorente, Koke, Barrios, Simeone, Gallagher, Raspadori, Alvarez
Rayo Vallecano: Batalla, Espino, Lejeune, Ciss, Ratiu, Diaz, Valentin, Palazon, De Frutos, Garcia, Camello
Anything else catch the eye?
Regardless of how inconsistent Atletico Madrid are, it is impossible to back the visitors in this clash. Historically, the hosts have dominated the rivalry and won nine of the last 10 matches at home. Playing at the Metropolitano is a difficult task for even the best teams in the world, and Rayo Vallecano are not the team to change that.
Nevertheless, we can imagine some action on both ends, including a possible goal from Rayo Vallecano, mainly due to Atletico’s unconvincing defensive performance. Real Madrid and Barcelona are 7 and 9 points ahead, so the time to act is now.
GambleAware