Botafogo are sitting pretty at the Club World Cup and need just a point from their final Group B game with Atletico Madrid to top the section against the odds.
The Brazilian side stunned European champions PSG with a 1-0 victory in the early hours of Friday morning and that made it two wins from two after beating Seattle Sounders in their opener.
Like most people, I fancied PSG to beat Botafogo but thankfully my two other bets came up as Igor Jesus scored the winner in a match where the French side racked up 10 corners.
It was assumed the two European giants would finish in the top two of this section but Botafogo are now in command. Wins for PSG and Atletico in the last round of fixtures would see all three sides finish on nine points, though, meaning the group will be decided on the head-to-heads then goal difference.
Atletico's 4-0 loss to PSG in their opening game could end up being costly and Diego Simeone's side now need to go for goals in this one, unless Seattle spring a surprise and take something from Luis Enrique's men.
The Spanish side were more like themselves when they beat Seattle 3-1 on Thursday night, with a corner bet salvaging something for Slips Tips. Now Diego Simeone's men need to go on a scoring spree as they bid to make up a four-goal deficit on the Brazilians and a five-goal gap to PSG.
How the bookies view it: Botafogo still long odds
Despite sitting top of the group after stunning PSG, Botafogo are outsiders for this one at 15/4 with BoyleSports. Atletico Madrid are 4/6 favourites and the draw pays 5/2.
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Head to head: First-time foes
These sides have never faced off before, which shouldn't come as a surprise as this is the first time either of them have graced a Club World Cup.
Players to watch: Pablo overpriced at 8/1.
Pablo Barrios heads into this game on a high after scoring a double for Atletico Madrid in their win over Seattle Sounders. The midfielder is a whopping 8/1 for anytime scorer at BoyleSports, which looks overpriced after his last outing. He's also 11/1o at Bet365 just to have an effort on target.
It's hard to look past Igor Jesus for a Botafogo goal after the striker, who has been linked with Nottingham Forest, netted in the first two group game. He's 11/4 at BoyleSports for another strike here, which looks a bit generous.
Probable line-ups
With Atletico needing goals, Simeone might be tempted to play Antoine Griezmann alongside strikers Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth. Clement Lenglet is available again after serving a ban for his red card against PSG.
Botafogo know a similar performance to the one against PSG should take them through so the Brazilians should be unchanged.
Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Lenglet, Le Normand, Galan, De Paul, Gallagher, Barrios, Sorloth, Alvarez, Griezmann.
Botafogo: John, Vitinho, J Cunha, Barboza, Telles, Gregore, Allan, Freitas, Artur, Jesus, Savarino.
Anything else catch the eye?
Botafogo will set up to frustrate Atletico as they know even a narrow defeat will be enough to take them through. The onus is on Atletico to attack so the corner count should rack up in their favour.
Over 5.5 Atletico corners looks good at 26/25 with Unibet, while backing the Spaniards at -2 in the corner handicap pays 59/50 with the same firm.
This one could be spicy and plenty of Club World Cup games have seen a high card count so far. Over 4.5 cards looks decent at 10/11 with Bet365 while Botafogo offer some value for most cards at 6/5 with the same firm.
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