Aston Villa and Crystal Palace meet in the Premier League at Villa Park on Sunday evening, with both sides searching for their first win of the new campaign. Villa ended last season in sixth place, just short of the Champions League, but their start to 2025/26 has been flat. They have taken only one point from two matches and are yet to score a goal, extending a run of three league games without finding the net. The underlying data has been equally concerning, with a bottom-six xPTS profile and the lowest attacking xG in the division so far.
Unai Emery’s team dominated possession at Brentford last time out, recording 76% of the ball and 17 shots, but only two of those tested the goalkeeper. Their play was ponderous, predictable, and lacking the spark that drove last season’s progress. The arrival of forward Evann Guessand, who showed flashes on his debut, is intended to sharpen the attack, but more reinforcements are expected before the transfer deadline.
Palace arrive unbeaten but not entirely convincing. Oliver Glasner’s men have drawn both league fixtures, scoring once and conceding once. Their xPTS profile sits in the lower mid-table range, reflecting balanced but unspectacular performances. They created only one big chance in those games, with much of their shot volume coming from distance.
The summer was shaped by change, with Eberechi Eze sold to Arsenal after being responsible for a fifth of Palace’s attempts last season. That left a creative void, though Ismaila Sarr stepped up against Forest with an energetic display and a goal. Captain Marc Guehi remains at the club despite transfer speculation, but Glasner’s squad looks thin, particularly with Europa Conference League commitments stretching his resources.
Both teams, then, head into Sunday under pressure: Villa to end a goal drought, Palace to show they can evolve without their talisman.
How the bookies view it: Villa strong at home
Aston Villa are priced at 19/20, which implies a 51.3% chance of victory, while the draw at 27/10 carries a 27% probability and Crystal Palace at 16/5 is given just a 23.8% chance. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 26/25, equating to a 49% chance, while both teams to score is 17/20, implying 54.1%. The odds suggest Villa’s strong home record from last season is still being factored in despite their poor attacking start, with Palace seen as outsiders even though they are unbeaten. The both teams to score market reflects Villa Park’s 74% rate of both teams scoring last year and Palace’s 58% away figure, while over 2.5 goals is effectively a coin flip given both sides’ early-season low-scoring trends.
Head to Head: Palace hold the upper hand
Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Crystal Palace have had the edge over Aston Villa with 10 wins to Villa’s seven and three draws, scoring 30 goals to Villa’s 22 at an average of 2.6 goals per game. The recent trend is heavily in Palace’s favour, with four wins in the last five clashes including emphatic victories of 5–0, 4–1 and 3–0, while Villa’s only success in that run came at home in September 2023 with a 3–1 win. Since then, Palace have taken points from both league and cup visits to Villa Park, underlining how momentum has shifted.
The last five encounters alone have produced 19 goals, 14 of them scored by Palace, showing how one-sided the fixture has been recently despite Villa’s historically stronger home record. Adding further weight, Oliver Glasner has won four of the last five tactical battles with Unai Emery, with the aggregate score across those games reading 17–4 in favour of the Austrian.
Players to watch: Hughes in the thick of it
Will Hughes is already averaging a yellow card per game this season, with two bookings in two appearances, and he collected 12 yellows across 33 matches last season at a rate of 0.51 per 90 minutes. The market has reacted to his combative style by making him just 1/2 to commit two fouls against Villa, which offers little value given the price.
A more appealing route is taking him to be booked at 12/5. That line looks generous when you consider his history: Hughes committed at least one foul in nearly three-quarters of his league outings last year and has been cautioned in both matches so far in 2025/26. With Villa likely to dominate possession at Villa Park, he will spend long spells chasing the ball in midfield, increasing the chances of tactical fouls and mistimed challenges. Backing him to collect his third yellow card of the campaign looks the smarter play at the bigger price.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez, Cash, Mings, Torres, Digne, Kamara, Onana, Rogers, McGinn, Tielemans, Watkins
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Richards, Lacroix, Guehi, Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell, Sarr, Mateta, Devenny
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks a strong angle in this fixture given the statistical profiles of Villa and Palace. Despite Villa’s current goal drought, their games consistently produce the kind of underlying numbers that point toward action at both ends. Last season at Villa Park, they finished with the fourth-best home record, but also conceded in 74% of their matches, the joint-highest BTTS rate in the division. They allowed just over 5.5 shots inside their box per game at home, but clean sheets were rare, with only four across 19 games.
Palace, meanwhile, carried one of the best away xPTS returns outside the top six last season, showing resilience and organisation, but their matches still offered balance. They conceded 25 goals in 19 away fixtures and saw both teams to score land in 58% of those. Their ability to keep games close is reflected in their xG differential of +0.13 away from home, but their negative shots-in-box ratio of 49.3% hints at vulnerability when opponents sustain pressure.
This season, Palace have averaged eight shots on target per match at an accuracy of 62.5%, among the best in the league. While many efforts have been from outside the box, they still work goalkeepers regularly. Villa, for all their possession-heavy play, are generating enough volume to expect regression toward goals. Against Brentford, they had 17 attempts and controlled 76% of possession, suggesting it is a matter of execution rather than chance creation.
Add in Palace’s European travel in midweek, which could sap defensive concentration late on, and the ingredients are there for both sides to register. With Villa desperate to break their barren run and Palace
GambleAware