Argentina v Switzerland
Argentina

Argentina vs Switzerland

, KO: 02:00 , Arrowhead Stadium
Switzerland

Argentina couldn't have had an easier path to this stage, and yet, they came dangerously close to elimination twice already. Now enter Switzerland, whose defence has only improved since the group stage. 

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Too much can be said about Argentina's performance against Egypt and Cape Verde, but La Albiceleste made it through, even if we saw some questionable calls in the process. 

The main issue is that the upcoming matches will only get harder, as the level of the opposition increases. Switzerland are the first Top 20 national team that Argentina will face, and should they succeed, they will face either Norway or England next. 

Switzerland beat Colombia through exceptional defence and Murat Yakin's tactical genius. They didn't impress with creativity in the final third, and finished the 120 minutes with just seven shots (two on target). 

This style is not going to work against Argentina. Sooner or later, La Albiceleste break through and start scoring, just like we saw against Egypt. They were two goals down until the 79th minute and by the 92nd, it was already 3-2.

How the bookies view it: Argentina’s biggest trial

While Switzerland are stronger than all of Argentina's previous opponents, at least on paper, we were surprised by the odds. We expected a greater advantage for the world champions, but the bookmakers price them at around 7/10. 

A draw in regular time is priced at 13/5, while Switzerland's odds revolve around 9/2. Curiously, bettors are clearly putting money on the Red Crosses, as Switzerland's odds have dropped significantly since their official release. You can find the best available options using our best mobile apps for world cup betting.

Recent head-to-head: La Albiceleste are undefeated in seven

This will be the third time Argentina face Switzerland at a World Cup after 1966 and 2014. What matters is that La Albiceleste are undefeated against the Red Crosses in seven matches (W5, D2). 

Switzerland have often struggled against South American nations at World Cups, winning only twice in ten attempts. However, one of their two wins was against Colombia earlier this week, and this may boost their confidence.

Players to watch: It’s not if, but when Messi will score 

Just like we said in our Argentina vs Egypt preview, almost nothing happens without Lionel Messi's involvement. And we were absolutely right, as La Albiceleste struggled for 79 minutes before he switched gears. 

Yes, he missed the penalty in the first half, but gave the assist for the first goal and then scored the equaliser four minutes later. 

As obvious as it is, we can't skip the 9/10 for Messi to score against Switzerland. Unless the Red Crosses aim for a 0-0 draw and never leave their side of the pitch, Messi should have his chances again.

Probable line-ups 

Argentina: E. Martinez, L. Martinez, Tagliafico, Romero, Molina, De Paul, Mac Allister, Paredes, Fernandez, Messi, Martinez

Switzerland: Kobel, Rodriguez, Akanji, Elvedi, Zakaria, Freuler, Xhaka, Jashari, Ndoye, Vargas, Embolo

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Argentina win & under 2.5 goals

Argentina to win and under 2.5 goals is the standout bet in this quarter-final. Lionel Scaloni's side have produced the strongest underlying numbers of any remaining team, with a tournament xGD of +9.67 and an outstanding defensive record of just 0.59 xGA per game. My model gives Argentina an 89.8% chance of reaching the semi-finals, while Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez have all scored during the knockout stage.

Switzerland needed penalties to eliminate Colombia despite generating only 0.39 xG over 120 minutes. Colombia controlled the underlying data but failed to progress, highlighting how fine the margins have been in Switzerland's run. Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo provide quality, but Switzerland's average of 1.73 xG per game meets the tournament's strongest defence.

My model gives Argentina a 60.8% chance of reaching the final and a 31.2% chance of winning the World Cup. Combined with the historical trend of under 2.5 goals landing in 80% of World Cup quarter-finals, Argentina to win and under 2.5 goals is the strongest play.

Anything else catch the eye?

Switzerland have to try and score first, or their chances will be minimal. No one can survive 90 minutes against Argentina with just defending. Sooner or later, they will find the back of the net. 

And exactly because we expect Switzerland to try and fight back, this clash may turn out easier for La Albiceleste than their previous ones. Theoretically, they will have more space, which is all they need to succeed. 

And because of that, we find Over 6.5 goal kicks for Switzerland to be a solid pick as well. For example, Cape Verde finished the match with eight (seven in regular time), and Egypt with 13.

Argentina vs Switzerland Betting Tips & Predictions
Argentina to win
7/10
Bet365
Lionel Messi to score
9/10
Bet365
Over 6.5 Switzerland goal kicks
1/2
Bet365
Further Reading
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