World Cup qualification in Group K continues on Tuesday evening as Albania host Latvia at the Arena Kombetare in Tirana. It’s an important fixture for both sides with England setting the pace at the top and Serbia pushing strongly in second.
Albania, currently sitting mid-table, know this home clash is a must-win if they are to stay in contention for qualification. Sylvinho’s team arrive on the back of a mixed run. They earned a creditable 0–0 draw at home to Serbia but followed that with a disappointing 1–1 away draw in Riga. Wins over Andorra and Gibraltar have steadied things, but the lack of cutting edge in front of goal has been a concern.
Their xPTS tally suggests they should be slightly higher in the group standings, reflecting strong defensive numbers at home. With players like Armando Broja and Jasir Asani returning from injury setbacks, the attack should offer more threat, while stalwarts such as Thomas Strakosha in goal give them security.
Latvia come into this after a narrow 1–0 loss to Serbia, where they defended doggedly but still conceded twenty shots and 1.39 xG. That result left them with four points from four games, earned mainly through their win in Andorra and a point against Albania.
Paolo Nicolato’s side have struggled for consistency, relying on set plays and counterattacks for chances. Their expected points tally underlines how limited they have been, with negative differentials in nearly every metric.
Squad news is also significant. Albania have recalled experienced full-back Elseid Hysaj, while Latvia continue to lean on Vladislavs Gutkovskis for goals. The overall picture points to a contest where Albania’s stronger squad depth and home form will be crucial, but Latvia’s resilience should not be underestimated.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Albania are 2/5 favourites, which carries an implied probability of about 71%, while the draw at 7/2 is around 22% and Latvia at 10/1 is just 9%. The goals markets show over 2.5 at 6/5, implying roughly 45%, and both teams to score at 13/8, which is about 38%. Both goal angles look ambitious given Albania’s tendency to control games and Latvia’s struggles in attack. Thirteen of Albania’s last 20 home matches have gone under 2.5 and Latvia have failed to score in half of their last 20 away games.
Head to Head: Albania undefeated in six
Albania and Latvia have met six times, with Albania winning twice, Latvia never winning, and four games ending in draws. All three competitive meetings in World Cup qualifying have finished level, including the most recent 1–1 in Riga in June 2025, while Albania’s two victories came in friendlies in 2007 and 2010. The other fixture of note was a 2–2 draw at the Rothmans Tournament in 1998. Overall, Latvia have yet to beat Albania, and the head-to-head history suggests these matches are usually tight and low scoring.
Players to watch: Manaj the main man
Rey Manaj looks a strong option in the anytime scorer market given his recent output for Albania. He has started all five of their World Cup qualifiers and Nations League games across the past year, producing two goals and an assist. Against Andorra he struck twice, showing he can punish weaker opposition, and he has averaged three shots per game in this run with almost half of them on target.
He also carries penalty responsibility, underlined by his spot-kick against Serbia, which only adds to his scoring potential. Manaj is Albania’s focal point in the final third, playing centrally in a 4-3-3 and linking with Broja and Hoxha. With his volume of efforts and set-piece duty, he stands out as a reliable anytime scorer bet.
Predicted line-ups
Albania (3-5-2): Strakosha, Balliu, Hysaj, Kumbulla, Mitaj, Asllani, Shehu, Laci, Broja, Manaj, Hoxh
Latvia (4-5-1): Zviedris, Jagodinskis, Balodis, Cernomordijs, Jurkovskis, Ciganiks, Varslavans, Penkevics, Saveljevs, Zelenkovs, Gutkovskis.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Albania to win with under 3.5 goals in the match looks an appealing angle, and the data supports it.
Albania’s recent home matches show a clear trend of controlled, low-scoring wins. Their last three competitive home victories were 3–0 vs Andorra, 2–0 vs Poland, and 2–0 vs Moldova, all landed under 3.5 goals. In fact, 13 of their last 20 home games have stayed below that mark. They rarely cut loose against mid-tier opposition, preferring efficiency over risk.
The underlying numbers support this pattern. At home across the last cycle, Albania averaged just 10.2 shots per game and 3.4 shots on target, generating around 1.2 xG. Defensively they allow only 0.8 xGA on average, limiting visitors to scraps. Those figures align with their reputation for keeping control rather than engaging in end-to-end football.
Latvia’s away record also points to a low-margin contest. In their last 20 away fixtures they have conceded heavily to elite nations, but against comparable opposition the games have stayed tight. Their win in Andorra finished 1–0, the draw in the Faroe Islands 1–1, and even their famous 0–0 in Norway was built on defensive discipline. Their attacking output is minimal, with just 2.8 shots on target per game away from home and only five big chances created in their last six competitive trips.
The clash of styles is clear. Albania will dominate territory and look to edge ahead through Armando Broja or Jasir Asani, while Latvia will sit deep and hope for a set-piece chance. Albania’s superior quality should eventually tell, but history shows they are unlikely to run riot. A home win with under 3.5 goals covers the most realistic outcomes and matches both sides’ statistical profiles.
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