AFC Wimbledon and Walsall meet at Wembley on Monday in the League Two Play-Off Final. The game sees the league’s best defence face a more balanced Walsall side that combines solid structure with attacking output.
Wimbledon conceded the fewest goals in the league, kept 21 clean sheets, and saw under 2.5 goals in 67% of their matches. Only 15 of their 46 games saw both teams score. Though not especially threatening going forward, they were efficient and difficult to break down. In the play-off semi-finals, they beat Notts County 1-0 in both legs—despite losing the xG and shot count in the first and absorbing 15 shots in the second while allowing just one on target.
Walsall finished the season with the second-best expected points tally and ranked third for fewest shots on target conceded. They were also among the league’s most active attacking sides. Their record against the top seven was impressive, winning seven of eleven games. Though they ended the regular season poorly, with just one win in 13, they came through a tight semi-final against Chesterfield, edging both legs on xG.
Recent Wembley finals suggest a low-scoring affair. The last 10 League Two play-off finals have averaged just 2.1 goals, with under 2.5 goals landing in six and both teams scoring in only four.
How the bookies view it: Lack of goals
Bookmakers rate it as a very even contest. In the 90-minute market, Wimbledon are slight favourites at 7/4, with Walsall just behind at 2/1. The draw is priced at 21/10, highlighting the expectation of a close and possibly low-scoring game.
Markets for goals support that view. Over 2.5 goals is available at 7/4, while both teams to score is 6/5. These prices indicate that the bookmakers see a cagey affair as more likely, with a lower goal count and the possibility of one side keeping a clean sheet.
Head to head: Very little between the two sides
AFC Wimbledon and Walsall have faced each other 12 times since 2016. Wimbledon holds a slight edge with six wins to Walsall's five, and one match ending in a draw.
In their most recent encounter in March 2025, the teams played to a 1-1 draw. Earlier in the season, in November 2024, Walsall secured a 1-0 away victory. However, Wimbledon had notable successes in prior meetings, including a 5-1 home win in April 2024 and a 3-1 away victory in September 2023.
Overall, matches between these two sides have been relatively high scoring, averaging just over three goals per game. Both teams have scored in approximately two-thirds of their encounters.
Predicted line-ups
AFC Wimbledon will be without Sam Hutchinson, who is recovering after suffering a heart condition. Omar Bugiel is also unlikely to feature, having missed the semi-final second leg due to injury. Riley Harbottle, who came off at halftime in that match as a precaution, is expected to be fit. For Walsall, Connor Barrett is available again following suspension and could return to the starting XI. Albert Adomah is pushing for a start after impressing off the bench in the semi-finals with two assists
AFC Wimbledon (3-5-2): Goodman; Harbottle, Lewis, Johnson; Neufville, Smith, Reeves, Tilley, Miller; Browne, Stevens
Walsall (3-4-3): Simkin; Okagbue, Williams, Allen; Asiimwe, Stirk, Chang, Gordon; Hall, Matt, Jellis
Players to watch: Harbottle to boss it
Riley Harbottle is expected to be fit and available against Walsall on Monday. The central defender, who scored the winner in the first leg of the semi-final against Notts County, was taken off at halftime in the second leg due to a minor groin issue and a first-half booking, though this was largely precautionary. Harbottle has started 27 games this season, making 44 fouls in total. He has committed at least one foul in 22 of those appearances and two or more in 12. His recent record highlights his combative approach, with 23 fouls across his last 12 games—an average of 1.91 per match. His defensive presence and physical style will be key for Wimbledon at Wembley.
Anything else catch the eye?
Wimbledon bring the league’s best defensive record, conceding the fewest goals and keeping 21 clean sheets. Only 15 of their 46 matches saw both teams score, and 67% finished under 2.5 goals, underlining their cautious, structured approach. Walsall, more balanced between attack and defence, ranked second for both xPTS and xGA while also sitting among the top three for fewest shots on target conceded. Both sides struggled to create clear chances in the semi-finals, and with control prioritised over risk, this final has all the ingredients for a tense, low-scoring affair. Given how evenly matched they are and how difficult they are to break down, the game could well go to extra time—and even penalties—to separate them.
GambleAware