When Diego Pacheco and Steven Nelson walk into the ring on Saturday, January 25 at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, their unbeaten records will be on the line. Pacheco will also defend his WBO International and WBC USA Super Middleweight belts. With plenty at stake, here are our Pacheco vs Nelson predictions before the fight.
Tale of the tape
Pacheco, 23, has a perfect professional record of 22 wins, 18 by knockout, over 92 rounds since turning professional in 2019.
With notable successes including reaching the quarterfinals of the 2017 USA Youth Nationals and the 2018 World Youth Championships, grabbing the 2018 USA Youth Open title, and advancing to the final of the 2018 USA Western Regional Final and the semis of the 2017 USA Junior Olympics, his amateur journey was equally remarkable.
At 36 years old, Nelson enters the contest with a flawless record of 20 wins, 16 of them by knockout, having fought just 84 rounds since turning professional in 2016.
As an amateur, he reached the final of the 2012 USA National Championships, narrowly losing on points to Marcus Browne. Before making his World Series of Boxing appearance, he went on to contest the 2013 National Championships, grab the 2013 National Golden Gloves championship, and take part in the 2013 World Golden Gloves and 2014 US National PAL Championship Final.
Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson hot tip: Pacheco to win via decision
In his most recent bout, Pacheco defeated Maciej Sulecki in a sixth-round knockout. By comparison, his opponent has been somewhat inactive, only fighting five times since 2020. Still, Nelson gave his best performance of his career in his last fight, beating Marcos Vazquez Rodriguez five months ago.
Even though Nelson is 13 years older than Pacheco, he will not be an easy challenge for the Los Angeles native. Nelson could drag the fight till the end, but we expect Nelson to convince the judges with his agile movement and tactical hits. This should be a decision victory for Pacheco.
Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson: Key stats
- With a 82% knockout percentage edging out Nelson's 80%, Pacheco has a small advantage in punching force.
- Nelson has fought 84 rounds of professional boxing; eight less than his upcoming opponent.
- Pacheco is currently the WBO Middleweight number one, while Nelson is currently 13th in the division.
- Nelson has a 100% KO record in his last five bouts, while Pacheco has won four of his last five fights via stoppage.
Fight odds and win probability
Here are the current Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson odds:
Diego Pacheco: 1/3 (1.33) – Implied probability 75%
Steven Nelson: 23/10 (4.50) – Implied probability 22%
*Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.
Keys to victory
Pacheco is the current owner of the straps and he has a 13-year age advantage. Nelson, on the other hand, is on the wrong side of his 30s.
There are strong reasons to believe Pacheco will leave the ring with the bragging rights once again, but a Nelson win is not inconceivable by any means.
Diego Pacheco: Exploit physical advantage
At 6'4″, Pacheco has a significant height and reach edge over the 5'10” Nelson in height. He must use his jab to control the range and position his power strikes while keeping the fight at a distance. Nelson's attempts to narrow the distance will also be thwarted by a well-placed jab.
With a calm technique that puts accuracy above volume, Pacheco has demonstrated maturity beyond his years. It will be crucial to keep this cool against Nelson, who can be unconventional, in order to prevent getting sucked into a fight.
Pacheco also has youth on his side. He should push the pace in the later rounds, testing the 36-year-old Nelson's gas tank and forcing him into mistakes.
Steven Nelson: Close the distance and prevent Pacheco from settling
Because Nelson is shorter and fights from the inside, he must slip past Pacheco's jab and work in close. Effective head movement and feints will help him find openings.
Pacheco's slim body makes him an easy target for body hits. Early on, Nelson should use big hooks to the body to slow down the younger fighter and dull the power of his blows.
Pacheco thrives in measured exchanges, but Nelson can disrupt his rhythm by maintaining a high punch output. Applying pressure and forcing Pacheco to fight at an uncomfortable pace could open up opportunities.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
