The National League schedule this weekend throws up three standout betting angles, each backed up by strong underlying numbers and recent form.
York City’s trip to Hartlepool offers clear value, with the visitors overpriced at 11/10 despite producing top-six metrics across xG and shot data. Hartlepool have struggled to turn possession into chances and have been found wanting against stronger opposition, while York continue to deliver results that match their data profile.
Tamworth’s meeting with Morecambe looks even more one-sided. The hosts have been dominant at home, generating consistent pressure and goals, while Morecambe’s defensive record is comfortably the worst in the division. Conceding at an alarming rate away from home, the visitors are unlikely to contain a Tamworth side that regularly creates big chances.
Forest Green against Rochdale has the makings of a shootout between two of the division’s most effective attacking units. Both sides lead the way in xG and shots inside the box, and while their defensive numbers are solid, they are not strong enough to suggest clean sheets.
Each angle is underpinned by strong statistical evidence, making this a weekend where the numbers align neatly with the betting opportunities.
Hartlepool vs York City
York City’s trip to Hartlepool offers one of the strongest value angles in the National League this weekend, with the visitors overpriced at 11/10 despite superior underlying numbers and recent performances.
Starting with York, their metrics are comfortably in the top six across most categories. They average 1.44 non-penalty xG per game while conceding just 0.92, giving them an xG ratio of 61%. Away from home their attacking production has been consistent, creating 8.7 shots inside the box and 5.3 shots on target per match. They also rank among the league leaders for touches in the opposition area, underlining the pressure they sustain. Importantly, York are converting those figures into results as they have taken 19 points from 11 matches and recently recorded wins over Carlisle, Braintree, and Tamworth.
Hartlepool’s numbers are far less convincing. They have drawn six of their 13 matches, but the balance of play is negative: 1.20 xG for against 1.45 xG conceded over the last eight games, producing a ratio below 46%. They average fewer than one big chance per match and struggle badly in the final third. Their defence has been keeping games close, but recent defeats to sides like Aldershot and heavy losses to Carlisle highlight their limitations when facing stronger opponents.
At 11/10, the market is pricing York as only a shade above even money favourites, implying a win probability of 47.6%. Based on the underlying supremacy, York should be closer to 8/11 which is a true price reflecting a win probability of around 58%. That discrepancy of more than 10 percentage points makes this one of the clearest value bets on the coupon.
Backing York to beat Hartlepool at 11/10 is therefore well worth taking, with data and form both pointing firmly towards the visitors.
- Best Bet: York City to win at 11/10 with Betfred
Tamworth vs Morecambe
Tamworth’s meeting with Morecambe offers one of the clearest angles on the National League card, with the hosts strongly favoured to win and the likelihood of goals pushing the combined bet into value territory.
Starting with Tamworth, their underlying numbers at home are consistently solid. They average 1.64 xG for per game on their own ground, while conceding just 0.62 xGA. That supremacy of more than +1.0 is among the best in the division and reflects how effective they are at both ends. They also generate 9.4 shots inside the box and nearly six shots on target in front of their own fans. That kind of sustained pressure usually produces goals, and their recent home results confirm it as they have scored in all six home matches this term.
Morecambe, by contrast, have been one of the league’s weakest performers. They sit bottom of the table for xPTS and have conceded 32 goals in just 10 matches. Their away defensive record is particularly poor, allowing 3.48 xGA per game and giving up an average of 14.75 shots inside the box across those fixtures. Those are the worst defensive numbers in the division by some distance and highlight why they are vulnerable against any competent attack. Across their four away fixtures they have conceded 16 goals, an average of four per 90 minutes.
The key to this bet is combining Tamworth’s likelihood of victory with the natural tendency for Morecambe’s matches to produce multiple goals. Even when Morecambe do find the net, their defensive shortcomings mean games rarely end low scoring. Tamworth have the firepower and home strength to take advantage, while Morecambe’s open style almost guarantees chances at both ends.
Tamworth to win with over 1.5 goals therefore stands out as one of the weekend’s best options.
- Best Bet: Tamworth to win & over 1.5 goals at 3/4 with Coral
Forest Green vs Rochdale
Forest Green’s clash with Rochdale looks like the standout fixture in the National League this weekend and the data points strongly to goals at both ends. These are the two most impressive sides in the division by almost every metric and that sets up the perfect conditions for a both teams to score outcome.
Starting with Forest Green, their numbers are relentless. At home they average 2.10 expected goals per game and generate over six shots on target. They also rank top two in the league for touches in the box and shots inside the box at home. That level of attacking output has delivered 21 goals already this season and they carry threats from multiple areas. However, defensively they are not untouchable. Across their last eight league matches their xGA sits at 0.92 per game, which is good but not elite, and their last five fixtures have all seen them concede.
Rochdale, meanwhile, bring the most dangerous forward line in the league. Away from home they post 1.48 xG on average and their open-play numbers are even stronger than Forest Green’s. They top the division for non-penalty xG (1.95 per game) and rank first for shots inside the box differential. In short, they create more clear chances than anyone else and regularly convert. Even when they have been beaten this season, they have found the net.
When two top-end attacks meet, defensive data often takes a back seat. The fact that Forest Green allow more than five shots inside the box per match and Rochdale concede 1.2 xG away from home only adds weight to the case. With both sides carrying title ambitions and attacking as their main strength, both teams to score looks the smartest angle into what should be a high-quality contest.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 4/5 at Ladbrokes
Further Reading
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