The opening few games of the National League season have been hard to predict, with mixed results for this column, but time has been spent reworking the model to sharpen the angles going forward. This weekend brings three fixtures that stand out, each offering a clear opportunity based on early-season trends and last year’s data.
At Solihull Moors, the visit of Aldershot has the makings of a goal-heavy contest. Aldershot’s matches so far have all ended 3-2, exposing their defensive shortcomings but also underlining their ability to score. Solihull, meanwhile, have drawn all three games this season but their home record last term showed a strong lean towards matches with three or more goals.
Hartlepool’s clash with Woking presents a different picture. Hartlepool are one of only two sides yet to concede a goal, building early momentum through defensive resilience. Woking, by contrast, have looked disjointed, conceding heavily and struggling in attack, which makes a tight, low-scoring home win a likely outcome.
Finally, Rochdale’s trip to Brackley gives the leaders a chance to extend their perfect start. With eight goals scored and only one conceded so far, they look too strong for a Brackley side that has already shown defensive frailties.
Hartlepool Utd vs Woking
Both Hartlepool and Southend are the only two sides in the National League yet to concede, and that defensive solidity makes Hartlepool a strong betting angle this weekend, especially when paired with under 4.5 goals. Hartlepool have opened the season with three clean sheets from three games and whilst they are not prolific going forward they have averaged 1.33 goals per match. They did failed to score at Yeovil but have won their other two fixtures 2-0. Keeping clean sheets naturally keeps their matches low scoring.
Woking, by contrast, have looked vulnerable at both ends of the pitch. They have conceded seven goals in three games, an average of 2.33 per match, and are still without a clean sheet. Their attacking return is just two goals, underlining their struggles in the final third. That lack of threat suggests they will find it difficult to break down a Hartlepool side that rank alongside Southend as the most secure defensively.
Every Hartlepool fixture so far has finished under 2.5 goals, reflecting their cautious approach and reliance on organisation. Woking’s matches have been more open, but against an opponent that has shown no defensive weakness, the most likely scenario is a controlled home win. Backing Hartlepool to win and under 4.5 goals ties the data together well.
- Best Bet: Hartlepool win & under 4.5 goals at 11/10 with Betway
Brackley Town vs Rochdale
Rochdale have made an excellent start to the new National League season and look well placed to continue that form when they face Brackley. Dale sit top of the table after three straight wins, scoring eight goals and conceding just once. That works out at 2.67 goals per game scored and only 0.33 conceded, giving them both the best attack and the best defensive record in the division. Two clean sheets in three underline their organisation at the back, while their attacking output has been consistently strong.
Brackley, by contrast, have had a mixed opening. They are mid-table and have already shown vulnerability defensively, struggling to keep opponents at bay and looking short of the quality needed to cope with the division’s sharper front lines. Against a Rochdale side that have been clinical in the final third and disciplined without the ball, Brackley will likely find themselves under pressure from the outset.
The numbers add further weight. Rochdale’s positive goal difference is unmatched, and they are one of the sides most frequently involved in games going over 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking intent. Brackley’s inability to keep clean sheets makes them a poor stylistic match here. Taken together, all signs point towards Rochdale continuing their winning run with another comfortable victory.
- Best Bet: Rochdale to win at 11/10 with Betfred
Solihull Moors vs Aldershot
Solihull Moors against Aldershot has all the ingredients for goals, with the data from last season and this campaign pointing strongly towards another high-scoring encounter.
Aldershot’s three league games so far have all finished 3-2 defeats, leaving them in the bottom three of the table without a point. They have at least been consistent, scoring twice in every match, but their defence is wide open with nine goals conceded already. That follows on from last season’s away form where they conceded an average of 2.09 goals per game and kept just three clean sheets in twenty-three matches. Over 2.5 goals landed in 61% of those away fixtures, underlining the trend for open games.
Solihull, meanwhile, have been hard to beat this season but have drawn all three matches, scoring three and conceding three. Their home record last season was built on entertainment rather than control, with over 2.5 goals landing in 57% of their games. They scored 1.48 goals per match at Damson Park but conceded 1.74, with only one clean sheet all campaign, so goals at both ends were the norm.
With Aldershot looking chaotic defensively but carrying a goal threat, and Solihull’s own home record suggesting openness, this clash looks primed for at least three goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Further Reading
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips
- Everton vs Brighton Hove Albion Prediction and Betting Tips
- Fulham vs Manchester Utd Prediction and Betting Tips
- Arsenal vs Leeds Utd Prediction and Betting Tips
- Burnley vs Sunderland Prediction and Betting Tips
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