After a busy opening to the National League season, the data is beginning to settle and clear patterns are emerging. This weekend’s card throws up several strong angles where the numbers and performances are firmly aligned.
Three fixtures in particular stand out as potential betting opportunities, each involving promotion contenders at home to sides who have struggled badly on their travels.
Rochdale host Braintree in a clash that looks heavily weighted in the home side’s favour. Dale’s control at Spotland has been backed up by some of the best xG and shots-in-box figures in the league, while Braintree have been among the weakest away teams across every metric.
Aldershot’s games have been the most entertaining in the league, with 20 goals scored and every match going over 2.5. Facing a Brackley side built on defensive discipline, this looks like a clash of styles.
Carlisle United, one of the division’s most dominant attacking outfits, welcome Truro City. Carlisle have consistently out-shot and out-created their opponents, while Truro’s away profile is firmly in the bottom six.
These three matches present the clearest mismatches of the weekend, and the advanced data strongly supports siding with the home favourites.
Carlisle Utd vs Truro City
Carlisle United look a strong bet to cover the -0.75 Asian Handicap against Truro City, with both the underlying metrics and early-season results pointing heavily in their favour.
Carlisle sit near the top of the expected points table on 12.62, joint best in the division with Forest Green. Their attacking metrics are elite, averaging 1.96 non-penalty xG per match and generating a positive xG difference of +0.92. They also boast the highest shots on target volume in the league at 7.83 per game, paired with 68.1% shots on target ratio. In terms of box dominance, Carlisle average 12.17 shots inside the area while conceding just 5.5, producing a huge +6.67 differential and a 68.9% share – second only to Forest Green.
At home they are equally strong. Their home xG stands at 2.13 for and just 0.97 against, with a positive difference of +1.16. They also create over 12 shots in the box per home match while restricting opponents to fewer than five, underlining their ability to control territory. Defensively they have conceded only three big chances in total across the campaign.
Truro by contrast are among the weakest away sides, with an away xG difference of -0.20 and a SiB ratio of just 46.4%. They concede far more than they create and are bottom six across most measures.
Carlisle’s consistent attacking volume, home strength and Truro’s fragility make the -0.75 line look very fair value.
- Best Bet: Carlisle -0.75AH at 5/8 with Bet365
Aldershot vs Brackley Town
Aldershot Town look a strong candidate to clear the 1.5 team goals line this weekend, with both results and underlying data pointing to their attacking strength, particularly at home.
They are the league’s highest scorers so far with 20 goals in seven games, averaging 2.86 per match. Every one of their fixtures has gone over 2.5 goals, with Aldershot consistently contributing the bulk of the scoring. Their big chance creation numbers underline their attacking power as they lead the division with 13 big chances overall and rank second at home with six. They also average 10.17 shots in the box per game, producing a positive ratio of 55.5%.
At the Recreation Ground, they have already scored eight times in just three matches, averaging 2.67 goals per home game. Their home xG stands at 2.47, one of the best in the league, showing they are regularly creating clear openings. They are also generating more shots in the box at home than they concede, keeping the pressure firmly on visiting defences.
This weekend they face a Brackley side who concede six shots in the box per game and have already allowed two big chances on their travels. Against Aldershot’s relentless forward line, that looks exploitable.
Given their home scoring record, attacking volume and chance creation, Aldershot to hit two or more goals looks a very strong angle.
- Best Bet: Aldershot over 1.5 goals at 6/5 with Skybet
Rochdale vs Braintree Town
Rochdale look well placed to beat Braintree Town this weekend and combining that with under 4.5 goals makes plenty of sense when weighing up both sides’ profiles.
At home, Rochdale have been dominant across all the underlying numbers. Their home xG stands at 2.47 for and just 0.63 against, producing a huge positive difference of +1.84. They also generate over ten shots in the box per game at Spotland while conceding fewer than four, leaving them with a +6.66 SiB differential and a ratio of almost 74%. They have created four big chances at home while allowing only one and have won all three of their home fixtures so far with an aggregate score of 7–1. These numbers underline their ability to control games and consistently out-create opponents.
Braintree, by contrast, are one of the weakest away sides in the division. Their away xPTS is only 2.06, with an away xG difference of −1.04. They create less than one expected goal per away match while conceding nearly two, and their away SiB ratio is just 28.6%, the second worst in the league. They have also failed to score in two of their three away games.
Rochdale’s superiority is clear, and while they should win, Braintree’s low attacking output makes under 4.5 goals the sensible addition.
- Best Bet: Rochdale win & under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Coral
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