Halfway through the season already, takes forever to get here and then flies past when we're in it. 1-1-1 last week, the Gallup call was poor, I will not be touching anything to do with the Cowboys for the rest of the season, a push on the Browns handicap as they missed the extra point which would have won it for us, and Alvin Kamara easily went over his receiving yards as he may well do this week as well with the lack of pass-catchers available for the Saints.

It's meant to be a windy weekend in quite a few games today, the totals have dropped significantly in Cleveland, Buffalo, Green Bay due to it. Have a look at nflweather.com for latest news on what's going on at games. Generally 20-25 mph is the lower limit which affects passing games and leads to lower scoring. Something to be aware of.


A few that I like this week and a few which have ticked over that 3 points which makes me hesitate. The Chargers were 2.5 now 3.5, although 3 is available at 4/5. I don't mind the Seahawks but they've let me down a few times now. The Lions are in consideration hosting the Colts. The Chiefs are 20 point favourites against the Jets, the only time a 20+ point spread has been covered was in 1976, the last time there was a spread this large was 2013 where the Peyton Manning Broncos failed to cover. I think I'll go for the Rams this week.

I'll get the negatives out of the way first, they travel across the country on a short week to take on the 3 win Dolphins (wins against the two worst teams in the league and the 49ers). The positives though, it's their 4th journey to the East coast, they've won 2 of 3 so far, and they're going up against a rookie QB making his first start. Starting against Aaron Donald is not going to be easy for him and Jalen Ramsey should be able to take away one of his targets for the game. The Rams should be able to run the ball well and I think that's all they'll need to do. It is over the 3 points, but I think they'll be comfortable.

LA Rams -3.5 @ 1.90 (most places)

Player props

Quite a lot of reception lines which look good today, I think they're all fairly low because of the wind expected in a lot of games, the likes of 3.5 for Mark Andrews and Cole Beasley would usually be fine. I was looking at longest reception bets too, Tee Higgins o20.5 for his longest is tempting, he's gone over that in 4 games in a row now, but again, the weather could be an issue. So I'm going to plump for LeVeon Bell getting revenge on the team he chose to ruin his career for the year and a bit. The question is rush yards or receiving yards. The lines have gone up a few yards each from Friday but still look good. 14.5 now for rec. yards, but I'll go for over 43.5 rush yards available at 1.83 on Skybet and William Hill. He had 39 yards from 6 carries last week in his first game with the Chiefs. I expect him to get more carries in this one against possibly the worst team in history, 20 point underdogs the Jets. I expect the Chiefs to run out easy winners and have the ability to rest their rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire

LeVeon Bell o43.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet/WillHill)

TD Scorer

I had a little bit of research done in the week, tight ends have scored 29% of the receiving touchdowns this year, the highest percentage it's been at this point of the season, and those guys are usually priced quite nicely. The likes of Big Mo Alie-Cox (you guys know I like him) and Trey Burton for the Colts, Harrison Bryant/David Njoku for the Browns, Everett or Higbee for the Rams, Eric Ebron, Mark Andrews in that Steelers v Ravens game. All priced fairly nicely for the week, but I'll go back to Tennessee and pick Jonnu Smith at 2.75 on Skybet. They're playing the Bengals who have given up 6 scores to the position over the last 3 weeks including 3 to the Browns in their last game. Jonnu has 5 TDs so far this season and the Titans love targeting the Tight end in the redzone. He gets a good matchup and a team who like throwing to him.

Jonnu Smith anytime TD – 2.75 (Skybet)


  • Rams -3.5 – 1.90 (everywhere)
  • Bell o43.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet/Willhill)
  • Jonnu Smith anytime – 2.75 (Skybet)

Good Luck with your bets this weekend, hopefully the weather doesn't mess the games up too much and I look forward to seeing what everyone else is on.

Adam (@TouchdownTips; tdtips.com)

  1. Johnb 2 years ago

    My study each week also includes weather and as I have said before the wind factor is crucial in game total, it may not be a problem to a quarterback like Aaron Rogers who can actually throw the ball through the wind with his power and low trajectory but others will struggle especially in winds of about 15mph and above, as an example the 24mph winds in Green Bay will give Rogers an advantage over Kirk Cousins in the passing game, Rogers will be able to go long more while Cousins when passing will be more short passes to tight ends
    Below I have listed the Forecast and wind expected at game time and for every quarter for this weeks remaining games

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 49f rain
    Q1 10mph South
    Q2 10mph South-SouthWest
    Q3 10mph South-SouthWest
    Q4 10mph SouthWest

    LA Rams at Miami Dolphins
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 86f Humid & partly cloudy
    Q1 8mph East
    Q2 8mph East
    Q3 7mph East
    Q4 7mph East

    NY Jets Kansas City Chiefs
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 45f clear
    Q1 12mph North-NorthWest
    Q2 12mph North-NorthWest
    Q3 11mph North-NorthWest
    Q4 11mph North-NorthWest

    Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 34f windy & overcast
    Q1 24mph NorthWest
    Q2 24mph NorthWest
    Q3 24mph NorthWest
    Q4 24mph NorthWest

    Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast DOME
    Wind 19mph west
    Q1 21mph West
    Q2 20mph West
    Q3 20mph West-NorthWest
    Q4 20mph West-NorthWest

    LV Raiders at Cleveland Browns
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 45f possible light rain
    Q1 26mph NW
    Q2 26mph NNW
    Q3 27mph West
    Q4 29mph West

    Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 47f mostly cloudy
    Q1 18mph West
    Q2 18mph West-NorthWest
    Q3 18mph West-NorthWest
    Q4 18mph West-NorthWest

    NE Patriots at Buffalo Bills
    Sun 6pm
    Forecast 43f rain
    Q1 17mph West-SouthWest
    Q2 18mph West-SouthWest
    Q3 18mph West
    Q4 18mph West

    LA Chargers at Denver Broncos
    Sun 9:05pm
    Forecast 63f clear
    Q1 4mph East
    Q2 4mph East-NorthEast
    Q3 4mph NorthEast
    Q4 4mph NorthEast

    SF 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
    Sun 9:25pm
    Forecast 58f clear
    Q1 3mph North
    Q2 2mph North
    Q3 2mph North-NorthWest
    Q4 1mph NorthWest

    NO Saints at Chicago Bears
    Sun 9:25pm
    Forecast 37f partly cloudy
    Q1 24mph NorthWest
    Q2 24mph NorthWest
    Q3 23mph NorthWest
    Q4 22mph NorthWest

    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
    Mon 1:20am
    Forecast 53f possible drizzle
    Q1 15mph West
    Q2 16mph South-SouthWest
    Q3 16mph NorthWest
    Q4 17mph NorthWest

    TB Buccaneers at NY Giants
    Tues 1:15am
    Forecast 39f clear
    Q1 12mph West
    Q2 12mph West-NorthWest
    Q3 13mph West
    Q4 13mph West-SouthWest

    • jolo210 2 years ago

      These are all divisional games this weekend all spread odds skybet fri 6th nov

      Jags ( 1-6) – Texans (1-6) Texans -7.5

      Vikings (2-5) Lions (3-4). No Spread yet

      Washington (2-5) Giants (1-7). Washington -2.5

      Chargers (2-5) Raiders (4-3). Raiders -1.0

      Bucks (6-2) Saints (5-2). Bucks -4

  2. Johnb 2 years ago

    NFL Teaser Treble 1.57/1 bet365 ALREADY ADVISED THURSDAY

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

    Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

    San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
    SAN FRANCISCO 49ers +8.5

    It’s Tua Time
    LA Rams at Miami Dolphins

    MIAMI DOLPHINS over 9.5 first half team points
    4/5 bet365 (NAP)

    Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

    ROBERT TONYAN over 31.5 receiving yards
    5/6 bet365 (NB)

    Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

    JONNU SMITH anytime touchdown
    7/4 skybet

  3. jolo210 2 years ago

    Cracking write once again

  4. BaDkO 2 years ago

    Inspired by Johnb’s teaser trebles:

    Green Bay Packers – money line – @1.34
    New Yors Jets + 27.5 – @1.31
    San Francisco 49ers +8.5 – @1.38 (I was thinking about +7.5 but then I saw Johnb has gone for 8.5)

    Treble pays 2.44 at Bet365

    This is just for fun as I know very little about NFL!

  5. jolo210 2 years ago

    BONKERS BET !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    LeVeon Bell over 100 yards rushing 7/1
    Jonny Smith anytime TD 15/8

    Pays 22/1

    1pt just a bit of fun for me

    Also can see Kansas City Blowing Out The New York Jets

  6. TDTips 2 years ago

    Glad you’re with me on the Jonnu bet, stand out price at Skybet too, around evens everywhere else.

    I think Tua may struggle but a TD and an FG in the first half seems easily do-able.

    The Rams line is now them -3 so a better bet now than when I wrote this..

    A few receptions lines I like, John Brown and Irv Smith o2.5 receptions. 2 and 2.30 respectively. Irv has increased snaps each week and 4 receptions in each of the last two games

  7. Inches 2 years ago

    Great write ups and info from everyone. Thank you .

    Steelers +3.5
    Titans -7
    Packers -6 13/2 treble

    Bill’s -4.5
    Raiders +1
    Colts -3 11/2 treble

    50/1 roll up.

    Anytime td scorers.

    Jaamal William’s
    Josh Jacob’s
    AJ brown.
    4.69/1 treble.

    Gl everyone.

    • Inches 2 years ago

      Colts to win by 1-6 points
      Saints by 1-6 points
      Packers by 7-12 points

      Trixie for me.

  8. nflfan 2 years ago

    Great write up lads
    Saints ml
    Packers ml
    Chiefs – 8.5
    Pays 7/4 skybet

  9. bigmick 2 years ago

    Going for ml acca bills, Titans, packers, saints, and chargers 4.89/1
    Lions to win 6/4
    Add the lions to my acca for 13.72/1
    Bell over 13.5 receiving yds 4/5
    Henderson over 62.5 rushing yds 5/6
    Golladay over 71.5 receiving yds 5/6
    PP power price Henderson and woods both to score a td 7/1

    • Inches 2 years ago

      I really hope the lions dont do me out again lol but gl mick.

  10. jolo210 2 years ago

    Time to really give it up what a joke lol happy bookie bashing guys but it
    Always seems to be us that get bashed lol

  11. nflfan 2 years ago

    Packers wow we’re was the run D
    Try one more
    Seattle ml
    Saints ml
    13/8 double skybet

  12. bigmick 2 years ago

    That game was cook v Adams lol
    Prop bets got bell up bit unlucky with Golladay getting injured and Henderson only had 8 carries was expecting him to run more than that. The dolphins d balled in that first half made Goff look like the rookie. Tua and the phins offense did struggle but the d stepped up. Happy with that and I’m sure tua will improve don’t know if they can make the playoffs but there was positives and it’s nice to see them with am over .500 record

  13. bigmick 2 years ago

    Unlucky inches who’d of thought it would be the packers letting a lot of down today. Good to see the Bengals get another win shame those Steelers pulled off the upset. Struggling to see who beats them this season at least in the regular season except for possibly the Ravens rematch.

    • Inches 2 years ago

      You too mate. I have no words for the packers D. Did anybody see the pass interference call against butler when titans made an interception? Flipping disgusting imo

    • Inches 2 years ago

      I think steelers are unreal.

  14. bigmick 2 years ago

    I like this bet on PP for tonight Evans, Miller and Gronk to combine for 150+ receiving yards and 2+ tds odds 2/1

  15. nflfan 2 years ago

    Winner for me on the late double
    Small profit after Green Bay let most people down
    Any thoughts on the out right market
    Chiefs obviously steelers keep winning so can’t be ignored
    On the nfc side Seattle going along well
    But worry about their D
    Any one else in the mix ??

  16. bigmick 2 years ago

    I’d say in the AFC the chiefs and Steelers but there is a few dangers if certain teams get hot at the right time like the Titans did last season. The Ravens Titans and Colts or bills could be dangers but the Ravens seem to blow it in the big games and I’m not convinced by the bills or Colts. The Titans can possibly give the likes of the chiefs or Steelers a run for their money.
    In the NFC the Seahawks are going well can’t rule out the Bucs who are going well since Brady’s poor debut and Gronk starting to get going if they get Godwin fit alongside Evans and a mix of Jones and Fournette they could be a team to go the distance. The saints are actually doing alright and if they get Thomas back it will help Brees. I would of said the packers but they blow hot and cold. The Cardinals have a solid offense if they can get the running game going they even beat the Seahawks recently.

    I’d say chiefs v Seahawks which was my pick at the start of the season. Would I be surprised if it was Steelers v Bucs? No I wouldn’t be.
    I live in hope for a dolphins v anyone though lol

  17. dj76 2 years ago

    Looking at the outrights i think the chiefs are still the best balanced team in the afc but you can’t rule out the ravens & the steelers.
    In the nfc obviously seattle look the part with wilson performing at an mvp level this season although i do agree that their defence is the weak link & i also like the cardinals because of the dual threat of murray & a vastly improved defence.

  18. dj76 2 years ago

    Tom Brady to have 300+ passing yards & 3+ passing TDs 6/1 @ PP

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