PSA up first – REMEMBER THE GAMES KICK OFF AT 1700 IN THE UK TONIGHT.

Could have been better last week with a different tight end scoring for the Ravens, but we hit 2 out of 3 selections for some profit at least. It was the third consecutive week I've hit the spread bet, taking spreads to 6 out of 7 spread winners for the season so far. Cannae complain about that record! The best try to hit 53% to make profit…

Another little PSA – Meant to be 3-5 inches of snow in Denver so be wary is you're backing any props in that game, if it gets back it should be a nailed on under game, the line is depressed already though so just keep an eye on it.

Spread bet

There's actually quite a few lines I like this week, the Steelers now getting points in Tennessee, The Panthers on the road in New Orleans, liked it at 7, not so much at 6.5 as it is now. The Chargers -7 hosting the Jags, The Seahawks in the evening game should cover, and the Cowboys, but they screwed me last week, so maybe not so much.

However I'm going to take the Browns -3 against my Bengals. I'm worried this could be a bit of a blow out for the Browns. They got smashed last week by the Steelers, but things weren't good for them, Baker Mayfield is poor under pressure at the best of time, but when nursing a bruised/cracked rib against the best pass rush in the league it was no surprise to see him struggle. It's different this week though the Bengals didn't register a sack against the Browns in their first matchup of the season so he should have time, while their wide receivers will have an easier night with the Bengals missing their best cornerback (William Jackson out) – They ran all over the Bengals in the first game, Nick Chubb is out, so it would be as emphatic there, but Kareem Hunt is a very good back himself.

The Bengals are without Joe Mixon as well in their backfield, it leaves Gio Bernard to carry the load, I love Gio but he's not been great this season so they probably won't be able to run much, which is fine, Joe Burrow is good and has weapons in Boyd, Green and Higgins who's stepped up in recent weeks. They should still put up points, but there's a whiff of things not being Sympatico in the Jungle recently and I'm worried the coaching staff are losing the team. They've mis-treated big players like Dunlap and Geno and I think things could turn nasty there.

Browns -3 (best priced 1.87 on 888)

Player prop

I had a ton of props to pick from last week, struggling a little for them this week though. There are some interesting lines if you fancy a bit of a risk, Lev Bell o10.5 rec. yards on his debut for the Chiefs, if you feel the Lions are sensible then D'Andre Swift rush yards is at 33.5, Joe Burrow rush yards at 11.5 is tempting to me, Keenan Allen o6.5 receptions has been a good bet with Herbert but I worry about his health after leaving the game last time out, Christian Kirk o46.5 is tempting too after his breakout last week and Deandre Hopkins dinged up a little.

But for this post I'll stick to possibly the best player in the league to go over his receiving yards – Alvin Kamara has been brilliant this year and has had to do it all for the Saints with Michael Thomas being out of the line-up. Thomas was expected to be back this week but misses out with a new injury, as does Emmanuel Sanders leaving them short of pass catchers, Trequan Smith probably the WR1 while Jared Cook should get more of the ball as well.

His line is set at 55.5 and he's gone over that in 3 of their 5 games this year, including 74 in their last game against the Chargers, it should be a high scoring game and I think they'll have to keep pushing, so I'm good to pick this one.

Alvin Kamara o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (skybet/365)

TD Scorer

There should have been a lot of value in the TD market this week with a lot of second string players getting chances to show their worth but the crafty bookies have been quick to adjust and quite a few I thought would be double-digits are short. The likes of AJ Dillon for the Packers, Gio/Perine/Williams for the Bengals, James O'Shaughnessy for the Jags, the 49ers RBs are all a touch short. There's probably a bit of value in Deonte Harris for the Saints at 6/1 and possibly Josh Hill or Adam Trautman as TE2 for them such are their troubles at pass catchers. – Tyler Kroft is the only TE left in Buffalo after the rest were ruled out with Covid worries, Stefon Diggs is priced well against at plus odds against the Jets this week. At least one of the Titans tight ends will score against the Steelers, Jonnu is 9/4, Firkser who scored last week at 6/1.

I'm going to take a bit of a long shot on Michael Gallup getting his second TD of the season for the Cowboys against Washington. The Cowboys were very publicly humiliated hosting the Cardinals on Monday night, they lost yet another offensive lineman during the game, and admittedly that's a big worry against a team who are strongest at pass rush, however. That was prime time and Andy Daltons first game for the ‘boys. He's famously awful in primetime. He seems to like Gallup having closed out the game against the Giants with passes to him and he found him in the endzone last week only for Gallup to drop it. The targets are there and I think the Cowboys will be fine this week.

Michael Gallup anytime TD – 4.75 (Uni/888)

Summary

  • Cleveland Browns -3 @ 1.87 on 888
  • Alvin Kamara o55.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (Skybet/365/Hills)
  • Michael Gallup anytime TD – 4.75 (Uni/888) 4.5 at Hills if you're restricted on 888 as most people seem to be

I've been busy on my site (tdtips.com) if you want to read more previews.

Good luck with whatever you're on, I've had a dabble on a teaser this week which I don't tend to do, but getting the Chargers -1, Chiefs -1 and Bills -4 was too good to say no to.

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

42 Comments
  1. jolo210 1 month ago

    I am on this treble cheers
    Tight End Sunday this week so a small stakes bet for Touchdowns
    Kielce (Kansas) 10/11
    Smith ( Titans) 7/4
    Tonyan (Packers) 15/8
    Graham (Bears) 5/2
    Pays 52/1 acc Skybet
    My 2 spread bet acc are
    Saints -4
    Patriots -3
    Chiefs -4
    Packers -1.5
    Cowboys +3
    Bills-7 Skybet pays 23/1
    Next bet
    Chargers-7
    Chiefs-7.5
    Bills-14 (they are playing the JETS)
    Saints-3.5
    Rams-5
    Pays 25/1
    Also a wee money line bet
    Falcons
    Saints
    Cowboys
    Chiefs
    Patriots
    Chargers
    Seahawks
    15/1

  2. Inches 1 month ago

    Just read your preview on the steelers hahaha never knew you hated them so much. But fair unbiased right up. I have jumped on the steelers bandwagon but you’re right about this being the biggest test so far.

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Write up

    • Johnb 1 month ago

      One warning about the Steelers is that last weeks Browns and next weeks Ravens are the Steelers main rivals along with the Bengals so their minds might not be on the Titans tonight

  3. superjim 1 month ago

    Cmon johnB.

    • gengar1989 1 month ago

      Lol I’m hoping he comes on to lol these guy is a legend made me tons on the horses tons on tennis and now rolling it in on the nfl bookies must hate him 😂

  4. Johnb 1 month ago

    I usually pick Baltimore for a first quarter or first half bet but this week they are on a bye week, so it’s Washington instead,
    So far after six weeks the first half points the Cowboys have conceded have been
    week 1 LA Rams 13pts
    week 2 Atlanta Falcons 29pts
    week 3 Seattle Seahawks 23pts
    week 4 Cleveland Browns 31pts
    week 5 NY Giants 20pts
    week 6 Arizona Cardinals 21pts
    the numbers for the line on Washington first half points tells us that it’s low at 10.5

    As they say “don’t fix what isn’t broken” and with Dalton Schultz giving us a winner in week 6 I’m on him again with the circumstances being the same, last week we had the Cardinals who had struggled against slot receivers this season and with Washington also struggling against the Slot Receivers it should mean that Dalton Schultz should see some action

    25/10/20
    Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (17:00)

    WASHINGTON over 10.5 first half points
    1/1 888sport

    DALTON SCHULTZ over 27.5 receiving yards
    4/5 888sport

    DALTON SCHULTZ over 3.5 receptions
    5/4 bet365
    All Advised Saturday

    DALTON SCHULTZ anytime touchdown scorer
    7/2 unibet
    ********************

    NFL Treble now 6-0 this season and looking to keep my 100% record intact for week 7 with three dogs to cover the handicap

    Arizona Cardinals +9.5
    Detroit Lions +8.5
    San Francisco 49ers +7.5
    29/20 888sport
    Advised Thursday
    ********************

    25/10/20
    Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
    GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5
    7/10 888sport (NAP)
    Advised Thursday
    ********************

    25/10/20
    San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (20:25)

    JAMES WHITE Over 4.5 Receptions
    6/5 skybet

    JAMES WHITE over 29.5 Receiving yards
    5/6 paddy power
    *******************

    Two things I love about snow is backing the overs and backing wide receivers, as long as there is no wind then snow enhances the chances of points being scored,
    When snow is involved bookies always lower the number and punters will blindly punt the under even though it increases the scoring,
    You will of course see players uneasy on their feet but it’s mainly the defence, wide receivers have the advantage because they know where they are running but the players marking them are having to change direction at the last moment making them susceptible to slipping, which is why I love my wide receivers props

    25/10/20
    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (20:25)

    OVER 43 points
    4/5 unibet

    MECOLE HARDMAN over 26.5 Receiving yards
    5/6 skybet

    TYREEK HILL over 62.5 Receiving yards
    5/6 skybet

    MECOLE HARDMAN anytime touchdown scorer
    4/1 paddy power

    TYREEK HILL anytime touchdown scorer
    5/4 skybet
    ******************

    25/10/20
    Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (17:00)

    CINCINNATI BENGALS to win
    8/5 bet365

    • Johnb 1 month ago

      The three best bets are the NAP Green Bay, my treble and Dalton Schultz receiving yards

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Some nice picks there John well done on treble.

  5. nflfan 1 month ago

    Sorry for late post
    Kansas ml
    New England ml
    Double 5/4 coral
    Enhanced skybet TD
    Scorer kittle Evans Kelce 14/1
    Small bet that one

  6. jolo210 1 month ago

    Well done the Detroit Lions 🦁

  7. TDTips 1 month ago

    Browns Push after missing their XP at the end…
    Kamara yards landed.
    Gallup… Oh dear.

    Note to self. Not the Cowboys. Never Cowboys. Nothing on the Cowboys.

  8. nflfan 1 month ago

    Threw the cowboys in the bin last week
    Gerry Jones won’t be happy

  9. jolo210 1 month ago

    Dallas Cowboys “America’s Team” I don’t think so never again
    New England in transition never again

  10. nflfan 1 month ago

    How bad is cam newton

  11. greenman 1 month ago

    haha yep hes been pie the last 2 weeks, if he cant run hes done. i would have backed Miami to win that division but they are starting tua next week

  12. jolo210 1 month ago

    He hasn’t been right since he lost the Super Bowl to the Denver Broncos which I still say to this day was fixed and there are a lot of people out there feel the same as me

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Heard recently about games being fixed, never thought if it or would ever entertain it. But looking at the Bill’s game tonight I raised an eyebrow. Lol

  13. Inches 1 month ago

    Falcons beat me outta 1600. 6 team handicap net. Got lucky with Gurley but flip me they are bad defensively. Cant understand why not rush the passer more in that last play. Knobs lol. Still up a few quid though . Any thoughts on player probs in next game?

  14. bigmick 1 month ago

    Missed putting my tips up today but for the cards v Seahawks game I’m going for Murray to score any time 6/4 he’s ran one in every game except 1 so far this season
    Seahawks -2. 5, Wilson 300+ yds, Metcalf 100+ yds 9/1
    Seahawks -3. 5 and over 47.5 points 6/4

  15. bigmick 1 month ago

    Taking a shot on lockett to score first td 9/1 as well

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Smashed it Mick. So random. I had 50 each on Murray and Lockett any time lol. But I stick 15 on Murray 1st tf, didnt see your best until there now. Also had a few quid on the cards, but thought it was over at ht so went to bed.

  16. bigmick 1 month ago

    Unlucky inches the lions are pesky they done me on an acca when they beat the cards previously this season.
    Adam picking a td scorer from the NFC East this season is about as tough as it gets the whole division is dire right now

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Ah I’m still sick Mick. Falcons killed my bet too when they played cowboys thought they were paying me back ffs.

  17. Alves 1 month ago

    No got a scooby about NFL but had to stick 5 £10 bets on wi PP to get ma free tenner tomorrow, got 4 football bets up for £65+ so banked it plus both teams 2 TD’s each half at 11/1, probably no come but will give me something to watch the next couple hrs

  18. bigmick 1 month ago

    Well that’s a start for me on this game nice grab from lockett

  19. bigmick 1 month ago

    Nice Alves that has a chance if both offenses turn up this could be a shootout

  20. jolo210 1 month ago

    Early lines for week 8

    Falcons@Panthers -2.5 ❗️(toss a coin)
    Raiders@Browns -3✅
    Colts-3 ✅@ Lions
    Steelers @Ravens-5.5 Steelers my team so not touching this
    Patriots@Bills-2.5✅
    Jets@Chiefs -21.5 yes -21.5✅
    Vikings@Packers -7 ✅
    Rams-3.5 @ Dolphins✅
    Titans-4 ✅@ Bengals
    Chargers -1 @ Broncos❗️ (toss a coin)
    Saints -3 @Bears✅
    49ers@ Seahawks-5✅
    Cowboys @ Eagles -3.5✅ NOT THEM COWBOYS
    Buccaneers-9.5 ✅@ Giants (maybe smaller spread)

  21. Alves 1 month ago

    Is that 2 touchdowns each team in??

  22. bigmick 1 month ago

    For the first half aye got to do it again 2nd half as well for the bet to be up.

    • Alves 1 month ago

      Cheers 👍 hopefully it’s in nice and early then so a cant get tae bed 😂

  23. Alves 1 month ago

    Well that 2nd half didn’t go to plan 😂

  24. bigmick 1 month ago

    I think you still got a chance if the Seahawks score a td in overtime I could be wrong but I think it counts as the 2nd half still for your bet alves

  25. mar10bet 1 month ago

    JohnB you da man! I had your teaser treble then less stakes on the tease plus GB then less stakes again with Washington FH points after your great stats I read on the Cowboys weekly FH points conceded. All in all I’m up 21 points for the night! Great way to finish nightshift week 😂

  26. mar10bet 1 month ago

    Oh had the Washington single too. When I seen the Giants put up 20 on the Cowboys there was no way Washington weren’t getting 10.5. Unlucky too on the college tips. I had Houston & Rice on with TB Rays in game 4 of the World Series. Rice had tithe 3 point lead late and blew it completely 🙈 Would have been some bet to get up after the finish in game 4.

  27. Jakarariw 1 month ago

    JohnB…
    You are the man…used your treble and got it…
    Believe you are now 7-0
    Thanks a bomb

  28. nflfan 1 month ago

    Well done johnb
    The treble actually all won ml
    Amazing
    This page on this site is class
    John and Adam really know their onions
    The rest of us are all knowledgeable and sometimes can get an angle on something to help our tips from others
    ☘️☘️

  29. bigmick 1 month ago

    Tonight I’m going under 44.5 match points and bears +7.5 odds 2/1
    Jimmy Graham to score and over 31.5 yds 5/1
    Just to score he’s 7/2 any time or first or last td 16/1
    Also like over 3.5 reception 5/4
    Goff and foles to throw a pick and both d to get 1+ sacks each 13/5

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Like all of them mate gl. For me keeping it simple. Bears +6

  30. Inches 1 month ago

    Bears to win by 1-6 points 5/1. Mansion bet.

    Rams have only beaten NFC East teams which are all terrible (except the eagles)… I just think this is good value, but the handicap has gone out on the bears which isn’t a good sign.

    • bigmick 1 month ago

      That’s a good shout inches I think the bears will win a close game but took the handicap to be safe. The bears games have all been within a score and the rans apart from blowing away the eagles and football team have also been within a score. Both teams have also been 40 or less total points in 4 of 6 games each this season including each of their last 3 games. That’s why I predicted the unders both d has been decent and neither offense is overly great.

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Caught a bit of the 3rd quarter. Seen the rams more less walk 80 yards up the pitch to make it 24 3. Straight back to bed as knew bets were beat. Unders were the place to be as you said Mick.

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