NBA Finals Game 1: OKC Thunder vs Indiana Pacers predictions, preview, and betting tips – 06/06/2025

The NBA Finals are here and while one of the teams was certainly supposed to be here since they had the best record in the regular season, the other team caused a few upsets to reach this stage.

Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA Finals as the huge favourites over Indiana Pacers, with Game 1 scheduled for Friday morning at 1:30 AM.

In this article, I will take a closer look at the NBA Finals odds and provide you with my favourite Thunder vs Pacers predictions and bets for Game 1.

So, let's take a better look at this game and what we can expect from it.

OKC Thunder vs Indiana Pacers predictions

All odds for my Thunder vs Pacers tips were taken from Boylesports and are subject to change at any time.

Indiana Pacers to win with a handicap (+9.5)

Based on the odds of winning the championship, the Pacers are one of the biggest outsiders in recent NBA finals. After all, this is also clear from the spread for Game 1, which says that the bookies expect the Thunder to win by double digits.

Now, OKC are a favourite for a reason and I would expect them to win this game, but the Pacers have been underestimated these entire playoffs and I feel that this is the case now as well. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana push the Thunder to the wire and go well under the spread in Game 1.

That being said, Oklahoma City have won both of their meetings with Indiana in the regular season, but the Pacers did cover the spread in one of them, which they lost by six points.

Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 total assists

The Thunder have shown against Nikola Jokic that they know how to defend the opponent's best player and that's against a three-time MVP of the NBA. Haliburton is not at the level of Jokic, although he has been quite impressive these playoffs, especially when it comes to assists, with 9.8 assists per game.

Still, I feel that the Thunder will be able to close off Haliburton's passing lanes since they have a great defence on the perimeter with SGA, Dort, and Caruso, so Indiana will have to find a way to keep their offence running even if Haliburton is cut off.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 10.5 free throw attempts

SGA's ability to draw fouls is certainly annoying at times and it seems that the officials often have a different criteria for him compared to other superstars. That being said, Gilgeous-Alexander is a full package and his ability to get to the free throw line is undeniable, which he has done on average 9.2 times in these playoffs.

The line for Game 1 is a bit above, almost two entire FTA above, but I still expect SGA to go over the line. Yes, this bet will ride on the referees assigned to this game as well, but despite that, the new NBA MVP will certainly be very aggressive and we know how that usually ends for the opposing team. Lastly, OKC Thunder are hosting Game 1, which will also play a role.

Thunder vs Pacers preview – teams news, injuries, and predicted lineups

OKC Thunder preview and latest news

After winning 68 games in the regular season, the Thunder were the main favourites to win the title even before the start of the playoffs, but they are the last team standing when it comes to main favourites since the Celtics and Cavs were both eliminated without reaching the finals in the East. Led by the 2024-25 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC have a quality starting lineup and the deepest bench in the league.

Thunder have proven these playoffs that they were the best team in the regular season with a reason and dispelled any worries regarding their youth and inexperience. They were pushed to seven games in the second round against the Denver Nuggets, but they dominated Game 7 and won by more than 30 points. They also swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and only dropped one game in the Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Thunder have no injuries ahead of the finals other than the rookie Nikola Topic, who missed the entire season.

Thunder starting lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein

Indiana Pacers preview and latest news

The Pacers were the fourth seed in the East going into the playoffs and while they made the Conference Finals last season, not many people saw them getting there again this year and especially not making another step to reach the NBA Finals.

However, Indiana entered the playoffs in great form and they had enough luck to avoid any major injuries, which can't be said for other teams in the East, i.e. Cavs and Celtics. Still, the Pacers have been truly impressive in the playoffs and their unselfish, pacey, free-flowing offence orchestrated by Tyrese Haliburton was truly a joy to watch.

The Pacers are without Jarace Walker and Isaiah Jackson, who are out with injuries.

Pacers starting lineup: Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, Turner

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