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This midweek sees me focus on both World Cup semi finals along with one game from Europe.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
My model likes the value in over 2.5 goals for Inter Club Escaldes against Lincoln Red Imps. The first leg finished 3-1 to Lincoln, but the numbers tell a different story to the scoreline. Inter had 61 percent of the ball and produced 14 shots and six corners, showing real attacking intent, while Lincoln were simply more clinical, scoring from nine shots on target compared to Inter's four.
Neither side looked settled defensively, and Inter will need to chase the tie at home, which should open the game up further. With 26 combined shots already banked in leg one, I expect goals at both ends again, and I am backing over 2.5 goals as my bet.
Bet: Inter Club Escaldes vs Lincoln Red Imps over 2.5 goals at 4/9 with Bet365
The case for France winning this tie on penalties begin with the numbers behind the fixture itself. Just 27 World Football Elo points separate these sides, generating 34.3% France against 40.0% Spain from neutral. When two elite teams are this closely matched, the historical knockout data shows 44% of games are level at 90 minutes and 29% are ultimately decided on penalties.
A shootout is not just possible here, it is the most probable single route to resolution in a fixture where neither side holds a commanding advantage across 90 minutes or extra time.
France's tournament defensive record of 0.64 xGA per game combined with Spain's 0.36 xGA means both sides will be cautious and structured throughout, producing exactly the kind of tight, low-scoring contest that reaches the shootout.
Mike Maignan has been outstanding throughout this tournament and his shot-stopping quality gives France a genuine edge over Unai Simon when the match reaches penalties. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele carry the composure and experience to convert from the spot against any opposition.
Bet: Inter Club Escaldes vs Lincoln Red Imps over 2.5 goals & France to win on penalties at 13/1 at Bet365
Back England to beat Argentina on penalties. The route to that outcome runs through a tight, low-scoring contest where neither side finds a decisive moment across 90 or 120 minutes, and the data makes that scenario highly plausible.
Argentina's Elo of 2177 sits just 80 points above England's 2097, generating a 25.2% draw probability from neutral. Historical knockout data across 80 matches in five World Cups shows 44% of games are level at 90 minutes and 29% are ultimately decided on penalties. With Argentina's xGA of 0.57 per game and England's 0.81 representing two of the tournament's most defensively organised sides, a match that neither team can break open across 120 minutes fits the profile precisely.
Jordan Pickford's penalty record at major tournaments is exceptional. His preparation, anticipation and psychological edge in shootouts has been England's most reliable weapon at this level, and represents a genuine advantage when the match reaches the spot kicks against a side whose path to this point has been built on attacking dominance rather than shootout experience.
Bet: Inter Club Escaldes vs Lincoln Red Imps over 2.5 goals, France to win on penalties and England to win on penalties at 128/1 at Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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