Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 2 – France vs Morocco – Thursday 9th July at 9pm
Achraf Hakimi's attacking output from right back has been one of the stories of Morocco's tournament, and it makes him a strong angle for a low risk shots market against France.
Across his last 36 matches spanning Ligue 1, Champions League and this World Cup, Hakimi has registered at least one shot in 26 of them, a hit rate of roughly 72%. At this World Cup specifically, he leads Morocco outright in shots per 90 at 2.4, ahead of every other player in the squad, while playing what amounts to a wing back role. He also sits second on the team in assists with 2, behind only Brahim Díaz's 4, underlining how heavily involved he is in Morocco's attack.
Notably, his shot conversion rate sits at just 7.7%, well below Rahimi (33.3%) and Saibari (30.0%), meaning his value here is volume, not finishing. That's exactly the profile a shots market rewards.
The concern is France's defensive record, conceding just 6.6 shots and 1.8 shots on target per game, the tightest mark left in the competition. Hakimi's only blank of the tournament came against Canada, Morocco's lowest shot volume team performance, and France's defence is built to produce exactly that kind of low volume game.
Given his consistency elsewhere and central role in Morocco's only outlet down that flank, 1+ shots remains a reasonable angle, though France's defensive record is the clearest threat to it
- Bet: Achraf Hakimi 1+ shot
- Odds: 2/9
- 13.33 units returns 16.29
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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