The market movements throughout the time Nunc Est Bibendum was tipped up were interesting.
He went out to 4/1 at times, but was then backed into below 2/1. Eventually, he settled at 11/4. At no point in the race did I think he was going to get there in time, but he got closer than I thought.
I'm extremely happy that Barenboim did not win. I was very close to tipping him up as an each-way, and he nearly nicked it from the front at 66/1. My selection just took an age to get rolling, but he stuck to his task to get second, not enough to get past Oisin's ride.
Morris Dancer 11/8 (2pt) – Newmarket 4.45
This happens quite a lot, in the way that I wanted to try and take on Morris Dancer, but in the end, I thought he was the clear winner.
That might sound daft, as he is the 11/8 favourite and is a couple of points clear of the second fav. However, he has only run once this year, and on the bare look of the form, it looks closer than what I think it is. Shayem could easily put egg on my face, but I can't get behind his form line. The second in the 2000 Guineas has been boosted by the winner, who has since won a Grade 1 in America, but is that really that good?
Morris Dancer was a slow burner over sprint trips at the start of last year, but then finished second to Zavateri in a Group 2. He then moved up to a mile and won a Listed race, which he was always going to win. His return effort at Royal Ascot was a solid return on the back of 311 days away from the track. He finished third and left himself with plenty to build on.
He was not fancied at all in the Jersey at Ascot. He went off at 25/1, and Buick went for the other Godolphin horse, so they must've known he was nowhere near 100%. So with that said, with improvement extremely likely and a return to a mile, I think he could be very tough to beat.
The Third Star 4/1 (1pt) – Newbury 7.27
With the fast ground and very heavy weight being against Grizedale, I had this between two horses. Of the two, I sided with The Third Star.
Storm Point will always be popular in the market on the back of a course and distance win last time out on his handicap debut. I just felt that when the younger horses take on the older horses, they can often come unstuck.
The Third Star is only making his third start for Owen Burrows, and he hasn't run badly in either. He was very well supported on his first start for the yard, but looked in need of further and in need of the run. Last time out over today's course and distance, he put in a nice effort, but was unfortunate to bump into a well-handicapped horse.
The winner has since finished 5th at Royal Ascot in a 28-runner handicap, which will likely throw up plenty of winners. The other runners in the Newbury race make it a solid piece of form. Horses like Classic Encounter are staple horses for handicaps like this, and that race was definitely better than what this looks like.
GambleAware