Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 1 – Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest – Friday 23rd October at 20:00
Ipswich Town welcome Nottingham Forest to Portman Road on, with Julio Enciso looking to continue an impressive record of getting shots away in the Premier League.
The Paraguayan has been one of Ipswich's most consistent attacking threats this season, and his individual numbers make a strong case for him registering at least two attempts against Forest.
Enciso has recorded 19 shots across seven league appearances, averaging 2.71 per game. More importantly, he has registered at least two shots in six of those seven matches, giving him an 85.7% success rate for this particular market.
His consistency is particularly encouraging. Enciso recorded three shots against Sunderland, three against Manchester United and six against Liverpool, before adding two against Crystal Palace, three against Everton and two against Fulham. The only occasion he failed to reach the required total came against Manchester City, when he did not register an attempt.
Friday's opponents have also offered shooting opportunities to visiting attackers this season. Nottingham Forest have conceded 33 shots across three away league matches, averaging 11 per game. Liverpool and Crystal Palace both registered 13 attempts against Forest, while Aston Villa managed seven.
Forest have also allowed an average of 8.33 shots from inside the penalty area and 5.33 on target in those away fixtures. Although those figures do not guarantee opportunities for any individual player, they suggest Ipswich should be capable of creating shooting positions.
Enciso's willingness to shoot is the strongest argument for this selection. He does not need Ipswich to dominate the match or create a succession of clear chances to reach his usual shooting volume, and his record demonstrates that he regularly takes responsibility in attacking areas.
The 2/9 price implies an 81.8% probability, which is broadly consistent with his performances this season. With six successful outcomes in seven appearances and a Forest defence that has regularly faced double-digit shot totals away from home, Enciso is well placed to register another two attempts.
- Bet: Enciso 2 or more shots
- Odds: 2/9
- Bank: 10 units returns 12.20
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware