FRIDAY was an excellent day at La Caja Magica for both my daily and outright tips, with Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych both advancing to the semis.
Despite not taking to the court until not far from the witching hour in Madrid, Wawrinka completed a three-set win that simultaneously landed a winning bet and made the Swiss stay on court until 1.40am which helps my outright on Berdych.
Stan tried his best to blow it when failing with three match points for a straight-sets win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but his late night and injured neck means that Berdych is favourite to make the final having been backed at a high of 75.0.
There is a small problem of course and that comes in the form of one Rafael Nadal, the Spanish master benefiting from another David Ferrer choke. He led Rafa by a set and 4-2 on Friday before winning just two more games in the match.
A Ferrer win would have been perfect for Berdy backers and the chances of shock semi-finalist Pablo Andujar pulling out the win today are pretty slim to put in kindly.
Andujar took down Kei Nishikori on Friday and is a 23.0 shot to beat Nadal when their semi-final begins at 2.30pm UK time today.
The wild card does at least possess a decent serve and pushed Nadal fairly hard in their only previous meeting which was on the slower clay of Roland Garros a couple of years ago.
Indeed, Andujar led by 5-1 in the third set of that match before crumbling in a Ferrer-esque fashion to lose it in a breaker and it is fair to say that Rafa has not been at his best this week in the altitude of Madrid.
He doesn't look at home on the slippery clay and quick conditions and he's getting mighty annoyed when he receives code violations for his ridiculously slow play, so unless Andujar chokes in the biggest match of his career he should have enough to win with a 6.5 game start.
Pablo should enter this with a mindset of having nothing to lose and in theory all the pressure should be on Nadal, who I expect to win, but perhaps not in the procession that is the obvious choice.
Recommended Bet
Back Andujar +6.5 games to beat Nadal at 1.80
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunday 9 May 2013 at 11:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Kolkata Knight Riders
It had all started so positively for KKR when Brett Lee removed Unmunkt Chand’s off stump with the very first ball of IPL 6 to precipitate a comfortable victory over Delhi on the opening day. Since then however, it’s been a difficult tournament for the defending champions and after eight defeats in 13 games, a further loss here will cement their elimination at the end of the group stage.
Kolkata have clearly missed Brendon McCullum who sat out the majority of the tournament with a hamstring injury before leaving the IPL to join up with New Zealand but perhaps the performances of Sunil Narine have been the main issue. The West Indian may still be in the running for the Purple Cap but the majority of his wickets have been tail enders and the suggestion is that the better batsmen have finally worked him out.
There has, however been a late rally in the KKR camp and Limited Overs specialist Ryan Ten Doeschate should really have featured much earlier but while current form is good, the Knight Riders will struggle for points in this match.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Virat Kohli is trying desperately to prove that RCB aren’t a one man team and the skipper’s stunning 99 against Delhi took him to third place in the list of leading run scorers in IPL 6. Chris Gayle is second on that list but when these two men have failed, there has been little support from the remaining batsmen.
In the bowling department, Vinay Kumar has been a stand out performer but once again, he’s largely battled alone and needs better back up in tight games.
This ‘three man team’ may be found out in the latter stages of this tournament but for now, Royal Challengers should be strong enough to take the win on Sunday.
Venue and Conditions
This is the first game to be played at the Ranchi’s JSCA Stadium in this tournament making it hard to judge exactly what a par score should be. When England played an ODI here in January, the tourists limped to 155 all out in 42 overs and while India chased that target down with 20 overs to spare, recent results suggest that this isn’t the fastest ground in the country.
A total of 160 should be the minimum target for the side taking first knock in a game where sufficient cloud cover is expected to assist the seamers.
Match Odds
Bangalore’s more consistent form over the course of the tournament sees them as favourites at 1.7 with Kolkata the outside bet at 2.2.
KKR definitely have momentum and look a far better T20 unit with Ten Doeschate and Eoin Morgan in the middle order but I expect a significant innings from either Gayle or Kohli to seal the points for the Royal Challengers.
Top Kolkata Batsman
After making just 12 runs from three knocks, Gambhir returned to from with a half century on Friday and the skipper remains favourite at 3.4. Elsewhere, Ten Doeschate looks at little short at 6 but in contrast, the inconsistent Yusuf Pathan is generous at 7 and is my tip to finally make a telling score for Kolkata.
Top Bangalore Batsman
Kohli’s knock of 99 will see him attract a fair share of the market at 4 while the patient Cheteshwar Pujara has the capacity to bat through the innings and is in with a chance at 5.
I’ve avoided the favourite so far in this tournament as he’s generally far too short but another Gaylestorm is overdue so take Chris Gayle at 2.52.
Recommended Bet
Back Bangalore to win at 1.7.
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Rajasthan Royals v Chennai Super Kings
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4
Rajasthan Royals
It is true that this is the most unpopular tournament in the world. The money, the greed, the garishness, the rumours of corruption. But if there is a heartwarming tale, Rajasthan are it. They are led by the esteemed and all-round good egg Rahul Dravid and it is fantastic to see them cocking a snook at the flashier franchises. They were sitting pretty in second on Saturday morning following a run of five wins in six matches. Dravid has recently praised the bowlers. No Wonder. Only Mumbai (by 0.10 of a run) and the Sunrisers have a more economical attack. Kevon Cooper was the star against King’s XI last time out taking three for 23.
Chennai Super Kings
Following a run of seven consecutive wins Chennai came unstuck against Mumbai. And how. They were bowled out for just 79. It was a bizarre effort considering in the match before against King’s they had posted a whopping 186. However, CSK got back to winning ways by beating Sunrisers. That just highlighted the lethargy against Mumbai. They scored an incredible 223 (remember our early statement about Sunrisers’ bowling?) with Suresh Raina hitting 99. Murali Vijay has returned to open the batting. Chris Morris, expensive against Sunrisers, will be under threat from Dirk Nannes and Albie Morkel.
First-innings runs
Here are the last nine first-innings scores in Jaipur over the last two seasons of IPL (most recent first): 154-178-171-144-179-124-144-162-170. That is an average of 158. Six of those were won by the side chasing but because the Royals have been so dominant at home that stat tells us more about their ability as a side under pressure. When the sides met previously Rajasthan posted 185 first up as one of the seven times they have batted first this year. However, they have scored more than 160 only three times.
Match odds
Rajasthan are unbeaten in Jaipur this season and Chennai face a stern test. Indeed, CSK were given an almighty scare in that previous meeting when they managed to chase down an intimidating total with only a ball to spare. That was typical of CSK. Often they look disinterested in a chase, reckoning they can leave it late. Sometimes it pays off. If we have a repeat we are sure for a cracking match in terms of entertainment and trading. But if you are one who prefers to let a bet run, our advice is to back Rajasthan. They have a great team ethic, their fortress is impregnable and, importantly, disciplined bowlers in the face of the second-best batting line-up in IPL. Rajasthan are 2.28 for this one and that is too big by about 18 clicks. Chennai are 1.69 and are a decent in-play lay.
Top Rajasthan bat
Shane Watson has put his troubles with his national side behind him and is having a fine tournament. Against CSK last time he hit a brilliant century, top-scoring with 101 off a bliserting 61 balls.
Top Chennai bat
Mike Hussey, wearer of the orange cap, won the gae for CSK v the Royals. His 88 from 51 balls earned him honours. But there were contributions, too from Raina (51 from 35) and Dwayne Bravo (15 from nine).
Recomended Bet
Back Rajasthan at 2.28
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DOUBLE
Bangalore to win at 1.7
Rajasthan to win at 2.28
Milesey
NBA PLAYOFF ACTION – SATURDAY NIGHT
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are unlucky not to be leading this series 2-0 as they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to a sell-out FedExForum on Saturday night.
Having come agonizingly close in Game 1, 26 points from point guard Mike Conley and another strong effort from Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol in the second meeting ensured they split the opening two games in Oklahoma.
They are 17-1 at home since February, and will be confident of protecting their home court. However, to do so, they must continue to attempt to control Kevin Durant’s scoring as he is averaging 37.3 points a game in the post season, while dealing with his team-mates from beyond the arc.
OKC undoubtedly remain a threat, but they will face a tough time contesting inside the paint and could slip behind in this series against one of the strongest defensive outfits in the league.
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
Game 3 shifts to Indiana as the Pacers look to take a 2-1 series lead over the New York Knicks, who could be boosted by the return from injury of Amar’e Stoudemire.
Although there are question marks over whether his return will disrupt the rhythm of the Knicks, who have found ways to win without him, Stoudemire’s limited-minutes presence will afford them an option to counter the Pacers’ dominance inside the paint.
The Knicks will be further buoyed by their shooting display in Game 2, clinching a 26 point blow-out win with Carmelo Anthony dealing with the physical game much better on his way to 32 points.
This game is tough to call, but if Anthony and the Knicks heat up they are capable of going on game-defining runs. Combined with the potential return of Stoudemire, who will be a game-time decision, to add presence against the Indiana bigs, they will be hopeful of snatching a road win.
Recommended Bets
Back the Grizzlies to beat the Thunder @ 1.51
Back the Knicks to beat the Pacers @ 2.58
Milesey
USA: NBA – Play Offs
Memphis Grizzlies 87 – 81 Oklahoma City Thunder
Milesey