Euro 2012, Group D, Friday, Kiev, 7.45pm
ENGLAND played better than most people expected against France and Roy Hodgson seems to be getting the most out of his squad.
As he always does, Hodgson has made his side hard to beat and one goal conceded in three games tells its own story.
After a 1-1 draw with France, it's a clash against the Swedes and this is one England can win if they keep Zlatan Ibrahimovic quiet.
A victory and a draw against Sweden and Ukraine should put England in the last eight – but what order will these results be achieved?
Sweden have a fabulous record against the English – never losing in seven competitive meetings – but rely heavily on Ibrahimovic who netter their goals in an opening 2-1 defeat to Ukraine.
Defence is Hodgson's strong suit so there is every chance the likes of John Terry and Joleon Lescott will keep the big man quiet.
Sweden scored in all of their qualifiers but his looks a low-scoring draw or a 1-0 England win – and I'm sticking my neck out and taking the latter.
The 1-0 pays 6-1 (various) while England are a biggest 23-20 at Paddy Power to pick up three points in Kiev.
Sweden are 3-1 at Stan James with Ibrahmovic 8-1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill and Paddy Power to break the deadlock.
Lescott was a surprise scorer in the opener but this time it could be set up for Ashley Young who is 11-1 at unibet to net. And I might have a little speculative bet on Terry to score at any time. He'll be looking to emulate Lescott and is 10-1 at sportingbet to net and 25-1 (Ladbrokes) to score first.
There is talk Andy Carroll might start and if this is case consider him to score first at 7-1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and take advantage of possible weakness in the Swedish central defence. He is 5-2 at Paddy Power to net at any time.
Most games have seen both teams score and plenty of goals but on this I'm targeting under 2.25 at 19-20 with bet365.
I've had a bit of success on the first player to be booked market – notably Mario Balotelli against Spain – and the favourite tonight of course is tough-tackling Scott Parker at 8-1 (various).
However, it might be worth taking a chance on Olof Mellberg. The centre-half is 34 now and struggled against the Ukrainians. He is 14-1 at Ladbrokes to be shown the first card.
Tipping the opener in Ireland v Spain to be inside 27 minutes was buying money at 11-10 but this one could be a slow burner. Take time of first goal after 31 minutes at 21-20 with William Hill.
Recommendations
England
(23-20, Paddy Power)
Young to score first
(11-1, unibet)
First goal after 31 minutes
(21-20, William Hill)
Mellberg first card
(14-1, Ladbrokes)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Im intetested in ur terry bet. Just heard on talksport that 6 outta last 7 goals sweden conceded have been headers directly from set pieces. Terry or carroll have to be considered.
Joe, England are decent in the air as Lescott showed. I think Terry’s worth a little gamble and Carroll definitely a decent bet if it’s confirmed he’s starting.
Exactly wot I had been thinking Joe. Carroll being tipped 2 start as well
Paul I’ve gone for Gerrard man of the match 15/2 with Victor Chandler and a wee side bet on fav Ibrahimovic at 6/1. What about your man Hart? He is a stand out price of 28/1 with Bet 365.
Chris, I tend to look at keepers if I think they’re going to be particularly busy. For example, for Ireland to have got anything from Spain last night Shay Given would have had to be brilliant for starters. Not sure how much the Swedes will test Hart but it’s a decent price.
Paul Mellberg 14/1 @ Ladbrokes mate
From what i hear (again on talksport) wellbeck and carroll will start and young will be pushed left replacing oxlade-chamberlain. I think this means they will be more attacking but also looking to get balls in the box from wide areas. Dunno if this will suit young cutting in from the wing but not gonna be playing off a main striker so maybe not as favourable to score. Ive went benzema/ibrahimovic and benzema/carroll 1st goal dble with a single on terry ew.
Joe, if Carroll starts might be worth a little punt on him as Sweden’s central defence looks vulnerable.
First goal after 31 minutes looks a really good bet to me I can’t see either team going gung ho from the start especially boring England .
Taking France and England, singles and double. Both need to win after their opening draw coupled with Ukraine’s victory and crucially both possess more quality than their opponents.
Not alot of use are English are you haha?
1-0 13/2 in Lads shop
Looks like another £50 goin on Carroll
Looks like another £50 goin on Carroll
Can get a double at 5/8 with SkyBet on France to win or draw & England to win or draw.
Can’t see either losing but could see a draw in England game. tempted to lump it on at that price.
That’s quite good dave
Thats rubbish dave. Sweden have not lost to england in there last 7 games! 5to8 would have to put a lot on that to get a good return!
Alex, I’m not temped by that 5-8. England actually beat Sweden last time the sides but that was a Wembley friendly. They’ve won a competitive match against the Swedes and they have met seven times.
Yeah Alex just stick £800 on it mate. Lol, only joking ;-)
The last time England won against Sweden was in 1903 at London Olympics????
Probably, not counting friendlies.
Paul do you reckon Gerrard could have a chance of getting man of the match? I think I might just throw £50 on Carroll first goal at 7/1 with paddy power as they will refund if Gerrard scores at anytime
Chris, problem with MOM like first booking is that it’s quite unpredictable. At the end of the day Gerrard or anyone else could get it.
What i won last nite chris! No chance. Plus its england we are talking about here!
It’s not going to be a massive price given it’s covering 4 of 6 possible outcomes and those 4 outcomes are the most likely of the 6.
It’s totally different sides from the last time they met so not so sure if the past record stands for much. Plus, the bet doesn’t need England to beat them to come in – just need them not to lose.
Anyway, just thought it was a decent shout for those who shove on bigger stakes.
Dave i would keep my money till better odds come along! But if you have the money and you fancy the bet go for it mate! Good luck if you do!
Bets for tonight…
France/England double
Benzema 1st goal
Carroll 1st goal
Benzema/Carroll double
England 1-0 France 2-1 correct scores!
Good luck!
Another new account opened, and another £50 double on, England/France. With the free £50 bet likely to go straight on Russia/Poland double tomorrow!
Of course Dave I think it has a good chance of coming up. Thanks for sharing mate and good luck if you go with it.
Will be around during the France game but taking the mrs for dinner later so will record the England game then watch it with a few beers when I return. Won’t be checking the website as I don’t want to know the score lol.
Chris, that’s going to be a nervous 90 minutes.
And what do you think about Nasri to score and France to win at 6/1?
MSN front page,
Roys rumoured to have tinkered with team but will it be enough to top Sweden
A side who england have never beaten in a competitive match.
What’s a good site to match 1st bet Paul?
Carroll wellbeck up front
Joe, I’ve seen that. Reckon I’ll have a little wager on Carroll to score first.
Joe, shows you the importance of seeing teams before having a bet. Last night we got on Torres when it was revealed he was starting and tonight Carroll. Two good lifts.
Has anyone opened a 188bet account? They advertise a £50 matched bet offer but then in the small print something about having to email promotions or something,
George, beware the curse of the small print.
George and everyone else, I have put £25 on Carroll to score first and £25 on Terry to score. If either bet comes up I’ll immediately put up a £25 inrunning prize on tonight’s game so stay tuned.
Im interested! Come on Carroll!
George, there you go. Right, you might be playing on your own. So it’s £25 for the person who names the next player to be booked. If it’s a tie I’ll get an esteemed colleague to pick a winner at random.
Fair play cracking goal, knew of he scored he’d have done it with a header! Great goal good shout people that backed him!
Cmon Paul, what’s this comp ;)
Luke, it’s up.
Mellberg for next card
Mellberg next booking
Luke, can’t believe, it. Two guys playing and they pick the same player.
M.Olsson next booking.
Jonas olsen
Scott Parker
John Terry
Yes Carroll what a header…waiting on England for my double now
Cheers for the text tips Paul. I’m having a good night so far. I backed France heavily and have a good bit on England at 13/10. I also bet Carroll to score first upon receiving your text so thanks again.
Can I change mine quickly Paul!? If so, elm…
Carroll booked next
David, thought u had it there.
Svensson
Paul, any suggestions for the in play market?
Lewis, with it only 1-0 it’s tough. Looks like there will be more goals though.
Im an idiot i never backed carroll paul!!!! Next player booked milner
Steven gerrard to be booked first
Paul im thinkin about the text tips. Whats in it thats not online and in paper?
Joe, it’s simply a single at over evens sent out almost every day. We try to make it something that’s not tipped in the paper or on the site but not always possible. It’s only £1 a week which only covers our costs.
elmander
Mellberg next player booked….
I was thinkin 2-0. Sweeden need to go for the win and may be exposed at back.
guys a lot of people have predicteda 1-0 england win, its the bookies favourite too, and next goalscorer is by far ‘no goalscorer’ so if you agree and dont think theres gonna be another goal…. search for different market, like under 1.5 goals, under 0.5 in second half etc because bizarrely bookies have got different prices !
George, I think there will be another goal. Sweden really have to go for it or they’re out. If they don’t get an equaliser I can see England hitting them on the break.
so maybe under 2.5 or exactly 2 goals in 90 mins?
George, possibly. It’s a tough one to commit to. If Sweden score next and in the first 15 minutes or so I’m sure there will be another one. If they don’t get one quickly I’m wondering whether Hodgson will shut up shop.
George, that’s why I was cautious. Should be at least one more because a draw suits no one. Looked a Johnson OG to me though.
come on england claw one back!
yeah see what you mean, ddnt take them long! all england now though can get them @ 2/1 might be worth some
Parker
Sweden seem to have stopped the ball getting out wide so no crosses coming in. England dont seem to have plan b. Did milner just get booked?
Joe, Milner was booked, need to see if anyone backed him.
Shoulda had it paul haha, chances of mellberg scoring 2 in the 1 game.
Wow two for mellberg and big zlatan put hart in his place!!
OK, Joe, You were the only guy to pick Milner so well done. Email your address to [email protected] and I’ll send you £25 at the end of the tournament. Or maybe more!
Need big zlatan to score to be in with a chance at blueSQ comp.
A checked paul dnt think any1 did
Think ul find a certain joe knotts picked him ;) milner always good for a card. Never mind anything els
patriotic £20 on england to win @10/1
anything else its a great game to watch
Gd call joe, didnt notice it was a wee sly one in at the end ur comment.
Sweeeeet :) Thanxalot paul!!
Mellberg MOM
Cheers david :)
This is a brilliant game and i couldnt call it either way. And england and hodgson were gettin called boring!!
Considerin zlatan for 5th goal 9/1
Hey david what price u think u wuda got for mellberg two goals ???
Best 2nd half of the tourney by far. Dont know wither to go for a 3-3 or a 4-2!
Alex, more likely to be 4-2 now but I think George is right and probably stay at 3-2.
mellberg was 50/1 1st gl on lads coupon but he’s only been given 1, other went down as OG
Craig, first was defo an own goal in my book but haven’t seen official confirmation of that. Shouldn’t affect any bets because he scored anyway and can’t see anyone having him to score two. Also booked second instead of first!
i think its gonna stay how it is, no more goals
If he got the 2 joe ad say abt 300/1 haha. Av stuck 5 on wilhelmsson next goal.
Stuck £80 on that double chance double I mentioned earlier. £50 profit. Happy days :-)
Dave, well done, a profit’s a profit. Not a bad night in the end with England winning.
Won’t lie, I was keeking it when Sweden went 2-1 up. Never celebrated and England goal in my life until Walcott banged that one home.
Biggest bet I’ve ever placed. Normally just £5/£10 max so chuffed to have made some money.
Few good winners again the night. Who got MOM ?
happy days!
£20 enhanced paddy power double of england and france winning @6/1 = £140 back
£20 in play england to win when 2-1 down @ 10/1 = £220 back
get in!
walcott a hink, accordin to skysports ratings, swedish not up yet but walcott got 8, everyone else got 6 & 7’s
Carroll 1st goal and England/France double as I posted earlier.good wee lift in time for a wedding tomorrow! Lol
Peter, good night, enjoy your wedding.
£385 on and £450 back so still profit. Disappointed with Benzema not scoring though.
Chris, Benzema set up the first two but never really had a chance. If you’d been watching early on I reckon you’d have gone with Menez to score in-running. Keeper had a great save from Terry too and Mellberg was second booking instead of first. Great game though and hope you had a nice dinner, will get you some brownie points before tackling next week’s ops.
Cheers Paul looking forward to tomorrows games more than the wedding lol! Hoping for some more profit!
Peter, strongly fancy Russia and probably be on the Poles too.