Euro 2012, Group D, Friday, Kiev, 7.45pm
ENGLAND played better than most people expected against France and Roy Hodgson seems to be getting the most out of his squad.
As he always does, Hodgson has made his side hard to beat and one goal conceded in three games tells its own story.
After a 1-1 draw with France, it's a clash against the Swedes and this is one England can win if they keep Zlatan Ibrahimovic quiet.
A victory and a draw against Sweden and Ukraine should put England in the last eight – but what order will these results be achieved?
Sweden have a fabulous record against the English – never losing in seven competitive meetings – but rely heavily on Ibrahimovic who netter their goals in an opening 2-1 defeat to Ukraine.
Defence is Hodgson's strong suit so there is every chance the likes of John Terry and Joleon Lescott will keep the big man quiet.
Sweden scored in all of their qualifiers but his looks a low-scoring draw or a 1-0 England win – and I'm sticking my neck out and taking the latter.
The 1-0 pays 6-1 (various) while England are a biggest 23-20 at Paddy Power to pick up three points in Kiev.
Lescott was a surprise scorer in the opener but this time it could be set up for Ashley Young who is 11-1 at unibet to net. And I might have a little speculative bet on Terry to score at any time. He'll be looking to emulate Lescott and is 10-1 at sportingbet to net and 25-1 (Ladbrokes) to score first.
There is talk Andy Carroll might start and if this is case consider him to score first at 7-1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and take advantage of possible weakness in the Swedish central defence. He is 5-2 at Paddy Power to net at any time.
I've had a bit of success on the first player to be booked market – notably Mario Balotelli against Spain – and the favourite tonight of course is tough-tackling Scott Parker at 8-1 (various).
However, it might be worth taking a chance on Olof Mellberg. The centre-half is 34 now and struggled against the Ukrainians. He is 14-1 at Ladbrokes to be shown the first card.
Tipping the opener in Ireland v Spain to be inside 27 minutes was buying money at 11-10 but this one could be a slow burner. Take time of first goal after 31 minutes at 21-20 with William Hill.
(23-20, Paddy Power)
Young to score first
First goal after 31 minutes
(21-20, William Hill)
Mellberg first card