Four of the world's top five have successfully made it through to the semi-finals at the French Open, and so it promises to be an enthralling day's action on Thursday.
First up on the Philippe Chatrier court is defending championMaria Sharapova, who produced a career-first in the last round as Jelena Jankovic gave her quite the scare in continuing what has been an impressive fortnight for the Serb.
The Russian ace dropped an error-strewn first set without recording a single game, but managed to recover to win the next two to book her place in the last four and re-instil some confidence back into her game.
It is a timely reminder of how quickly she can let slip of her crown in Paris, and it doesn't get any easier as she prepares to take on world number three Victoria Azarenka.
The Belarusian is through to her first French Open semi-final after defeating 12th seed Maria Kirilenko in straight sets, and admitted in her post-match press conference that she's “moving forward in her relationship with the clay” but knows that a real battle lies ahead.
Azarenka is 7-5 in her head-to-head record with Sharapova, including their two previous meetings at majors. However, the defending champion has won both clashes on clay, the last in Stuttgart last year, and still appears to be more comfortable on this surface.
It promises to be a closely fought encounter, but back Sharapova to prevail as she attempts to reach consecutive finals in the French capital.
Immediately after that match is concluded, world number one Serena Williams takes centre stage, after similarly being shaken in the last round.
The American looked on course for a comfortable victory after the first set of her quarterfinal match, but Svetlana Kuznetsova had other ideas as she levelled before going a break up.
Unfortunately for the Russian she was unable to keep up the pace as Williams seemingly stepped it up another gear, demonstrating a real determination that will take a special effort to overcome.
Williams eventually clinched her place in the semi-finals at Roland Garros for the first time in 10 years, and in doing so extended her winning streak to a staggering 29 games. Standing in her way of an appearance in the final is world number five Sara Errani.
The Italian has picked up from where she left off last year following her run to the final, and importantly ended a 0-28 run against top five players with her win over Agnieszka Radwanska.
However, she has lost all five previous meetings against Serena, but admitted that if she is to break her duck against the American top seed, it will most likely come on a surface she has excelled on over the past few years.
The pair met in Madrid last month, with Williams sealing a straight sets win. The odds suggest this is almost “Mission Impossible” for Errani, but back the Italian to go out fighting.
Recommended Bets:
- Back Sharapova to beat Azarenka @ 1.9
- Back over 19.5 games in Williams-Errani @ 2.92
Milesey ( betfair )
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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India v South Africa 10:30
India
The Indians have had a fantastic build-up to this competition, with convincing victories in both of their warm-up games. They conceded a big score to Sri Lanka but then easily overhauled it, whilst Australia were first bludgeoned for 308 and then skittled for 65. That last game will give them particular satisfaction, as they were 55-5 at one point in their own innings before Dinesh Karthik hit an unbeaten 146 at more than a run a ball. Their only real concern going into this opening match of the Champions Trophy will be the form of opener Shikhar Dhawan, who has scarcely scored a run either in the time that they have been in England or in the final few weeks of the IPL.
Dhawan was touted as the next big thing in Indian cricket after his stunning Test debut in March, where he broke the record for the fastest century on debut, but he also injured a finger in the field and has since struggled to find any sort of form. After leaving both Virender Sehwag and Gautham Gambhir behind, India were looking to Dhawan to kickstart their innings and his failure to do so thus far will be a big concern.
South Africa
South Africa go into this game with a multitude of problems. As if losing veterans Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis to injury before the end of May was not bad enough, they now find that the world’s number one fast bowler, Dale Steyn, has a side strain and may play no part in the opening exchanges of the Champions Trophy.
Match Odds
South Africa are 1.87 favourites at the moment, but those odds ignore their injury woes. India’s price of 2.14 scarcely seems to reflect their performance in the warm-up games, making them good value indeed.
Top Indian Batsman
Only three Indians have shown much form with the bat in the lead up, but it has been dramatic form. Virat Kohli struck 144 from just 120 balls against Sri Lanka, whilst MS Dhoni made 91 from 77 balls against Australia. The man to back, though, is Karthik, whose 146 against the Aussies followed an unbeaten 106 against Sri Lanka. That’s 252 runs without being dismissed once and yet he’s probably going to be around 4.6 in this market.
Top South Africa Batsman
Although he won’t be at the most generous odds, the only man to back in this South African side at the moment is Hashim Amla. He is, arguably, the best all-round batsman in world cricket at the moment and is, along with de Villiers, in that elite club of those who average over 50 in both Tests and ODIs. He’ll be at around 4.1, but he loves English conditions and always performs well on big occasions.
Recommended Bet
Back India @ 2.14
Milesey
Both teams have scored in 6/9 Coritiba home games and 4/4 Fluminense away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.9 in Coritiba v Fluminense
Milesey
CROATIA V SCOTLAND
Croatia host Scotland in Zagrab as they try and steal a march on group rivals Belgium in Group A.
Croatia are on a great run of form as they look to cement their claims to a winners spot on Group A. Since bowing out of Euro 2012 at the group stages Croatia are unbeaten in 7 and altogether are on a run of 6 wins, draw and 1 defeat. Croatia contain pretty much the same squad from the last finals but have switched a few personnel around. Out goes the hopelessly out of form Everton striker Nikola Jelavic. Croatia have supreme back up in the shape of Mandzukic, Olic and Da Silva. In World Cup qualifying Group A Croatia sit joint top with 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats. Belgium have the same record and this group looks like going down to the wire. The group is relatively tough too with no minnow, but Croatia have made light work of Wales and Macedonia twice and Scotland.
Scotland seem to be declining at an alarming rate and even the appointment of legendary player Gordon Strachan has had little effect. The dearth of quality for Scotland has been in evidence for years and its been a long time since they could field a side capable of picking up points. Scotland’s overall form since New Year 2012 is not too bad with 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats. Scotland are looking to Blackburn striker Jordan Rhodes for their main strike threat. He is decent at that level but not a striker to be feared at international level. I think Strachan will try and build from the back and get the side back on an even keel. This qualifying has gone now but they do need to try and finish as high as possible to avoid falling into the lower pots for future draws. In this qualifying section Scotland have been awful and sit bottom with 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. It will be difficult for the Scots to climb the table as they are probably the worst side in the group.
CROATIA V SCOTLAND: BETTING TIPS
This should be a straight forward win for Croatia in a match that is very one sides. With a huge gap of 14 points after only 6 games this is a real top v bottom clash. My only worry is Scotland can stifle Croatia and may park the bus at the back. Croatia though are quality through and through and are used to having to go at teams. With Luka Modric pulling all the strings and with quality up front Croatia should be able to breach the back line of the Scots. I take Croatia -1 at 1.60 (Bet365) in Asian Handicap. We get stakes returned on a 1 goal win and collect on any other victory.
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CZECH REPUBLIC V ITALY
Czech Republic welcome Italy to Prague for this intriguing Group B qualifier of World Cup qualifying.
Czech Republic are in decent form going into this vital World Cup Qualifier. Since losing to Portugal in second round of Euro 2012 Czech Republic have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2. With 11 goals scored and 5 conceded (with 5 clean sheets too) The Czechs have played some decent opposition in that time too so the form line is fairly strong. Only Malta would be classed a walkover in those games. The Czech Republic have blooded a lot of new players this year after a lot of the old guard left the side. Indeed only keeper Petr Cech, Tomas Rosicky. Tomas Hubschmann and Jaroslav Plasil have over 50 caps. Among the new caps there are a few decent prospects. Defender Theodor Gabre-Selassie was their best player at the Euros, Matej Vydra looks class and opened his international account recently. Striker David Lafata is hardly a youngster but the lightly capped Sparta Prague man has an excellent striker rate and is in top form at the moment. Czech Republic sit in 3rd position in Group B with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Italy have been in OK form themselves since grabbing the runners up spot in Euro 2012. 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The run is not that strong when you look into the opposition during that run. Italy lost to France and England, when technically superior to both sides. Their wins were over Malta (twice), San Marino and Armenia so the current playing form of the side is hard to judge. In that run of games Italy have scored 21 and conceded 11 which is unlike the Italy sides we know. Indeed in 10 games Italy only managed clean sheets against Malta and San Marino which suggests some uncertainty at the back. Italy like the Czechs are trying new players and systems, up front they are likely to go with the new Milan duo of El Sharaawy and Balotelli. With the ageless Pirlo in behind to keep the side ticking over Italy look good going forward. Italy top Group B with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats.
CZECH REPUBLIC V ITALY: BETTING TIPS
Its a really hard game to call this one as both sides are going through a few changes. Both sides are better attacking than defending thats for sure so we take the Over 2.5 goals at 2.30 (Bet365) Italy are very shaky at the back at the moment and I think both sides are capable of scoring here for sure. Czech’s must take a win here if they want to progress in the qualifying.
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ARMENIA V MALTA
Armenia look to grab a double win over minnows Malta in the quest for points in this bottom of the table clash in Yerevan.
Armenia seem to be improving all the time, their results are mixed but there is encouragement. Since New Year 2012 Armenia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats. With 14 goals scored and 17 conceded they are starting to compete in games against the big boys. Armenia have some decent young players now too and in midfield they have a very creative centre. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a very exciting attacking midfielder and is attracting the eyes of several top level clubs across Europe. At Shaktar Donestk now he is pulling the strings for them and the national side. Naturalised Brazilian Marcos Pizzelli has spent his entire career in Eastern Europe and looks quality for Armenia too. Upfront the Armenians have several options with three decent strikers, all with decent strike rates. In Group B Armenia have struggled results wise but have given good accountof themselves in each game. Sitting in 5th with a game in hand with 1 win, 0 draw and 3 defeats they can go level with Denmark with a win here.
Malta have improved their game marginally and are now one of the better sides out of the really small teams. They have shown their mettle with wins over several sides around them at the bottom of the FIFA rankings. However in game against anyone of note they are still struggling. Malta have several decent players but have far too many poor ones. Malta’s recent form looks decent with 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. But if you look into the statistics you see wins over Liechtenstein (twice) San Marino and Luxembourg. A draw against Northern Ireland is not too bad but they were hammered by Bulgaria and Czech Republic. Italy beat them twice but never really got going in either game and seemed happy to take 2-0 wins twice. Malta sit bottom of Group B with 5 losses from 5 with 1 goal scored and 14 conceded.
ARMENIA V MALTA: BETTING TIPS
The odds on a home win are really short and although on paper this looks a certain home win Armenia must break down the 10 men Malta will put behind the ball. Armenia are a much improved side and for me one who will continue to do so. I think Armenia have the ability to score a few goals here and with Malta unlikely to trouble the scorer Armenia -1.5 at 1.75 with Bet365 looks a great bet. Malta have managed a solitary goal in the whole campaign. It was a goal in Prague against the Czechs but it was a 30 yard screamer that can be chalked down as a fluke. Especially since they have not got close to scoring since.
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PORTUGAL V RUSSIA
Russia is top of European World Cup Qualification Group F under Fabio Capello with four wins in four matches. Portugal are third with 11 points in six matches. Just goal difference separates them from Isreal in 2nd place.
Portugal were favorites for winning this group, but Russia have looked impressive while Portugal perhaps have been a subpar so far. For instance, they needed an injury time goal to secure a point against Israel. They actually went 1-0 up in that one, but had to work themselves out of a 3-1 down hole.
Not only have Russia won all four games so far, they havent conceded a goal yet. With their technical, well composed football Russia is a force in today’s game. Many tipped them to do well in the European Championship, but perhaps it is only now we get to see what Russia is capable of?
When the teams met in Russia, the home side won 1-0 after Kerzhakov scored an early goal. Neither side has absences that should have an effect on the outcome of this game.
BETTING TIPS
I expect Russia to soak up Portugese pressure, and aim for quick breaks when good opportunities arise. The Russians are just experts of that playing style, so I do not doub’t they’ll mangage to see their strategy through in an effective way. It will be up to Portugal to take this game to the Russians and not give them too much space to counter in. I am sure coach Bento is very aware of that, and is preparing his big guns for battle.The Russian defense will of course get a handful to handle when Portugal attacks from either flank, but Russia showed they could handle that in the reverse fixture. They’ll be confident they can again.
Portugal is priced around 4/5 (1.80). I do not fancy that price. Portugal has had many great editions, but this one doesn’t seem too be up to their standards. Russia has done more than plenty to prove they’re top drawer. Anyhow; I rate this game more open than the odds indicate.
ASIAN HANDICAP
Bet365 offers 2.05 (21/20) for Russia +0.5 on the Asian Handicap coupon, those odds are excellent.
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Croatia -1 at 1.60 (Bet365)
Czech Rep V Italy Over 2.5 goals at 2.30 (Bet365)
Armenia -1.5 at 1.75 (Bet365)
Russia +0.5 at 2.05 (Bet365)
FRIDAYS 4 FOLD
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Milesey
Coritiba 2 Fluminense 1
Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.9 in Coritiba v Fluminense
Milesey
MENS FRENCH OPEN TENNIS TIPS
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The clash that seemed inevitable from the moment the draw was made at the 2013 French Open takes place on Friday, with defending champion Rafa Nadal taking on world number one Novak Djokovic.
This will be the 35th match in a series that Nadal currently leads 19-15 and it’s a repeat of last year’s championship match here at Roland Garros that Rafa won in four sets.
Nadal leads the series on clay 12-3, but the only one contested this season was a straight sets win for the Serbian in fairly similar conditions to those they’ll encounter on Friday in Monte Carlo.
The historical matches aren’t hugely relevant to me in such an extensive series and current form, fitness and general condition is more important.
Rafa comes into this having seemingly peaked at the right time with facile wins over Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka, while Djokovic was tested at times by Tommy Haas in an altogether more watchable clash on Wednesday.
The weather is due to be warm and sunny, which will suit Rafa, but it will also suit Djokovic and make for what should be a hugely entertaining encounter that should go at least four sets.
I don’t see much value in backing either man from the off and certainly not Rafa at 1.67 against an opponent who crushed him in one of his other back yards in Monte Carlo last time and someone whose game matches up well to his own.
That said, it’s roughly the same price that Nadal started at last year in Rome and Monte Carlo when he won in straight sets, so some may see that as a touch of value.
Personally, I’m siding with the overs on this and looking to back Djokovic in the outright tournament winner market at some stage during this match.
The over 40.5 total games looks good in this, as it’s difficult to see a straight sets win for either man and that should cover a four setter. It could easily go the full distance and the last time this pair finished in three sets at a Slam was back in 2008.
The other semi final is equally tough to call, with David Ferrer taking on home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but the betting favourite, rightly in my view, is Ferrer at around 1.72.
These two have a far less extensive history to look back on, with three competitive matches played of which Ferrer has won three of them and the only one on clay was back in 2010.
This one will centre on how patient Tsonga is prepared to be in the rallies and he has said that coach Roger Rasheed has had a great effect on that part of his game, but I don’t see the Frenchman having the game to emerge victorious on this on clay right now.
Tsonga has improved on the dirt, but his win over Roger Federer seemed to me to be a lot about how poor Roger was on the day and he won’t get anywhere near as many unforced errors from the Spaniard on Friday.
Ferrer returns better, rallies better, has a more reliable game and his stamina is almost beyond question. Tsonga has a good serve and forehand and a slightly improved backhand, but he’ll have to hit more winners than I believe he’s capable of doing on this surface to win. It could be long, but I’m taking Ferrer.
Recommended Bets
Back over 40.5 games in Djokovic vs Nadal at 1.85
Back Ferrer to beat Tsonga at 1.72
Milesey
Formula One Betting: Back Mercedes to triumph in Canada…………..
Red Bull and Ferrari are only so concerned about whether Mercedes may or may not have broken the rules because they are scared of the pace of their car.
Four consecutive pole positions tell you everything about the power behind the wheel of this year´s Mercedes. But curiously Betfair‘s market still doesn´t seem to have caught up with the engineering progression that Ross Brawn has made. Hamilton is only third favourite at 5.0 to be the race winner, with Rosberg an even longer price of 6.0.
The odds are generous enough that, just as we did in the last race, the best bet is to back Mercedes to be the winning team rather than try to decide which of their drivers will be the one who gets the chequered flag. This could be the weekend for Hamilton to win his first race – his record in Canada of two wins in the last three races underlines that it is one of his favourite circuits. But on the other hand he’s admitted himself that he hasn’t got the feel of his new car’s brakes honed to perfection yet, and on a track where his late braking style is normally rewarded that could count against him. Rosberg, meanwhile, is in the form of his life and the confidence from winning the last time out will take him further.
The squabbling lawyers prove that Mercedes are now up among the big boys. Another Grand Prix success would simply ruffle their feathers even more.
Recommended Bet
Back Mercedes to be the winning car in the Canadian Grand Prix at 2.64
Milesey ( betfair )
Azarenka V. (Blr) 1-2 Sharapova M. (Rus)
Back Sharapova to beat Azarenka @ 1.9
Milesey
Williams S. (Usa) 2-0 Errani S. (Ita)
( 6 – 0 ) ( 6 – 1 )
Milesey
ICC Champions Trophy
India 331-305 South Africa
Recommended Bet
Back India @ 2.14
Milesey
Pakistan v West Indies
Friday June 7, 10:30
Live on Sky Sports 1
Pakistan
Within this squad you have some of the most naturally gifted players in world cricket but to borrow a footballing cliché, you never know which Pakistan side will turn up. Misbah-ul-Haq’s team were impressive in their warm up matches, most notably against South Africa, but showed the brittle side of their game when they were taken to the wire by Ireland in two official ODIs last month.
There’s no Shahid Afridi for Pakistan which is a little surprising after a return to form against South Africa this year and while the all-rounder returned a string of poor scores at the World T20 in 2012, his ability to get his side home in tight finishes will be missed.
Pakistan’s real strength lies in their top order of Misbah, Nasir Jamshed and test captain Mohammad Hafeez and while sides will be concerned by the spin threat of Saeed Ajmal, their new ball pairing of Junaid Khan and the giant Mohammad Irfan will cause problems as the group stages progress.
West Indies
It may have been a little surprising to see the Windies priced out at 8.4 to win the competition particularly when you consider that they are the reigning T20 Champions and that they have previous in this tournament. West Indies won the 2004 Champions Trophy in England and despite some recent internal upheaval which saw Darren Sammy relinquish the captaincy, this is a strong side who should overcome Pakistan to underline their threat.
The squad reveals a list of players who all enjoyed productive IPLs – Dwayne Bravo, Chris Gayle, Kieron Pollard, Sunil Narine and even Sammy himself who steered his Sunrisers team to the play-offs. Only Marlon Samuels disappointed with performances that even managed to underwhelm dismal Pune.
Whether they can take that T20 form into the 50 over arena remains to be seen but that looks such an impressive line up when you read off that list of limited overs specialists.
Match Odds
Pakistan are favourites to take the points here at 1.89 but the West Indies stand out at their 2.12 price.
There will be a suggestion that this West Indian T20 squad hasn’t the discipline in the longer form of the one day game but personally I don’t subscribe to that theory. They should have enough depth of talent to claim the win and I would seriously consider their tournament odds of 8.4 while you still can.
Top Pakistan Batsman
Misbah and Mohammad Hafeez have shown the best form in the warm ups and both will be available at around the 4 mark. However, the man who has really impressed in the last twelve months is Nasir Jamshed – a 23 year old who scored back-to-back ODI hundreds against India in 2012-13.
Expect Jamshed to prosper and take this market at 4.33 or better.
Top West Indian Batsman
Explosive Chris Gayle is the obvious favourite and you may struggle to get better than 2.75 on the Jamaican left hander. It’s hard to look beyond Gayle at times but Darren Bravo is an underrated batsman and would be my pick at around 4.5.
Recommended Bet
Back West Indies to win at 2.12
Milesey
RESULT
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ICC Champions Trophy
Pakistan 170-172 West Indies
Milesey
MILESEY’s BET OF THE DAY
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Belgium v Serbia, Friday 19:45
A week after putting four past the USA in an away friendly, this much vaunted Belgium side reappear in front of their own for the serious business of World Cup qualification. Currently locked on 16 points with Croatia, Group A has quickly become a straight-out brawl between those nations for that precious automatic qualifying spot. Like Belgium’s other Group A opponents, Serbia’s hopes of qualification have long since evaporated and they were soundly beaten 3-0 in the reverse fixture in Belgrade. As well as boasting plenty of attacking flair, Belgium have mastered that magic combo of keeping clean sheets as well as winning, only conceding once in their six qualifiers to date.
Best Bet: Back Belgium to win to nil @ 2.88
Milesey
FRENCH OPEN TENNIS – 2013
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The clash that seemed inevitable from the moment the draw was made at the 2013 French Open takes place on Friday, with defending champion Rafa Nadal taking on world number one Novak Djokovic.
This will be the 35th match in a series that Nadal currently leads 19-15 and it’s a repeat of last year’s championship match here at Roland Garros that Rafa won in four sets.
Nadal leads the series on clay 12-3, but the only one contested this season was a straight sets win for the Serbian in fairly similar conditions to those they’ll encounter on Friday in Monte Carlo.
The historical matches aren’t hugely relevant to me in such an extensive series and current form, fitness and general condition is more important.
Rafa comes into this having seemingly peaked at the right time with facile wins over Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka, while Djokovic was tested at times by Tommy Haas in an altogether more watchable clash on Wednesday.
The weather is due to be warm and sunny, which will suit Rafa, but it will also suit Djokovic and make for what should be a hugely entertaining encounter that should go at least four sets.
I don’t see much value in backing either man from the off and certainly not Rafa at 1.67 against an opponent who crushed him in one of his other back yards in Monte Carlo last time and someone whose game matches up well to his own.
That said, it’s roughly the same price that Nadal started at last year in Rome and Monte Carlo when he won in straight sets, so some may see that as a touch of value.
Personally, I’m siding with the overs on this and looking to back Djokovic in the outright tournament winner market at some stage during this match.
The over 40.5 total games looks good in this, as it’s difficult to see a straight sets win for either man and that should cover a four setter. It could easily go the full distance and the last time this pair finished in three sets at a Slam was back in 2008.
The other semi-final is equally tough to call, with David Ferrer taking on home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but the betting favourite, rightly in my view, is Ferrer at around 1.72.
These two have a far less extensive history to look back on, with three competitive matches played of which Ferrer has won three of them and the only one on clay was back in 2010.
This one will centre on how patient Tsonga is prepared to be in the rallies and he has said that coach Roger Rasheed has had a great effect on that part of his game, but I don’t see the Frenchman defeating Ferrer on clay right now.
Tsonga has improved on the dirt, but his win over Roger Federer seemed to me to be a lot about how poor Roger was on the day and he won’t get anywhere near as many unforced errors from the Spaniard on Friday.
Ferrer returns better, rallies better, has a more reliable game and his stamina is almost beyond question. Tsonga has a good serve and forehand and a slightly improved backhand, but he’ll have to hit more winners than I believe he’s capable of doing on this surface to win. It could be long, but I’m taking Ferrer.
Recommended Bets
Back over 40.5 games in Djokovic vs Nadal at 1.85
Back Ferrer to beat Tsonga at 1.72
Milesey
RESULT
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Djokovic N. (Srb)
4 6 1 7 6
6 3 6 6 6
Nadal R. (Esp)
got the required games in easy, a mammoth battle going on !!
Recommended Bets
Back over 40.5 games in Djokovic vs Nadal at 1.85
Milesey
NADAL WINS 9 – 7 in the 5th set, AMAZING MATCH !
Milesey
The hosts going into this one occupying third place in the group – and are level on points with second placed Albania, which makes three points in this clash all the more important.
A victory would move Iceland within touching distance of booking their place in the finals of a major competition for the first time in it’s history, and boss Lars Lagerback certainly has the experience to ensure that his side don’t throw away their advantage here.
Three wins from their five outings in this campaign isn’t ideal, but it has been enough to keep Iceland in with a shout as we approach the end of the qualification period – and with second placed Albania facing a tricky visit from Norway, the hosts could quite easily go into the weekend having leapfrogged them.
Slovenia go into this one with their campaign in tatters following four losses from their opening five games, and with just three points to their name, you have to question whether their motivation will match that of their hosts here.
Srecko Katanec’s side have won just one from six on the road, and 17 goals shipped in their last 10 games suggests that their defensive weaknesses could be the difference in this clash.
A 2-0 victory over Turkey in a friendly last month was an impressive result for the visitors, but in competitive outings their record is far less flattering – and six without a win from eight indicates that they may struggle in this clash, against an Iceland side with it all to play for.
BACK Iceland @ 2.62
Milesey ( betfair )
LAY OF THE DAY
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The Argentines are clear at the top of the CONMEBOL section and need just four more points from their five remaining fixtures to seal their place in Brazil next year. Alejandro Sabella has done well in his time as manager since his appointment in August 2011. He made a bit of a shaky start with an early defeat to Venezuela, but since then he’s lost just one of his next 16 in charge.
The White and Sky Blue have been dominant on home soil of late – six straight wins, with a total of 19 goals scored. Captain Lionel Messi netted seven of those goals though and there is some confusion as to whether he’ll be playing tonight. The Barcelona man has been struggling with a hamstring injury for the last couple of months and even if he does start, he surely won’t be at his brilliant best.
Colombia are aiming to qualify for their first World Cup since France 98 and they’re looking good to do so at this stage. They are in third place in the table – top four qualify – and while they’re five points adrift of Argentina, they have played a game less.
José Pekerman is the man in charge of the Colombians and he has plenty of history with the Argentines. He was their manager between 2004 and 2006, including for the infamous World Cup game against Germany where the players brawled following the penalty shootout exit. He’s led Colombia to eight victories from 11 matches since his appointment and he’ll be wanting to overturn the 2-1 home defeat that the old regime suffered at the hands of Argentina back in November 2011.
Another man with a bit of history going into tonight is the new Monaco striker Radamel Falcao. The player netted 34 goals for River Plate between the years of 2005 and 2009 and he’ll be keen to perform well on the home soil of the club who he signed for as a boy.
It’s hard not to make Argentina favourites for this clash but I can’t have them as low as 1.66 considering the doubts surrounding Messi and the fact that they only need four more points to qualify. That’s why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Argentina v Colombia @ 1.66
Milesey