July 7: Sean Calvert’s Wimbledon Day 5 Tips

IT was one winner and one loser for Sean's tips yesterday and he's back with another three picks.

First up he's focusing on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Sam Querrey and says: “The last time this pair met on grass was here in 2014 when Tsonga won it 14-12 in the fifth set but I’m not sure it will go that far this time with Tsonga likely to win this with a bit more to spare in my view.

“Querrey hasn’t been playing well on the grass this swing and his serve has looked breakable, with Jordan Thompson, Thomas Fabbiano and Daniil Medvedev all creating plenty of break-point opportunities on it lately.

“Medvedev created 11 in two sets, Thompson seven in three sets and Fabbiano 10 in three sets, while his hold rate on grass in his last 10 matches is less than 90%, which puts him behind Tsonga, Kevin Anderson, Gilles Muller, Marin Cilic, Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic and John Isner in the big servers list.

“The American hasn’t appeared secure off the ground either particularly and Tsonga is a good five per cent better than Querrey in the hold/break stats – and I’d expect the Frenchman to be the one to try and make things happen out there on Friday.

“Tsonga’s break of serve mark of 20.8% on grass in his last 10 is decent (4% better than that of Marin Cilic and 1.4% worse than Rafa Nadal’s) and I’d expect him to break Querrey enough times to cover a -3.5 game handicap.”

Andy Murray v Fabio Fognini

“Fognini has adopted more of an attacking approach to his grass-court tennis this Wimbledon and we’ve already seen how devastating a fired-up Fognini can be to Murray’s game this season.

“Fognini handed out as comprehensive a walloping as Murray has received to the Scot in Rome and although conditions were in his favour and Murray was struggling for form and would do well to win this in three sets.

“The Italian loves to take the ball early and has a lot of what it takes to be a good player on grass in his locker, with a good net game and easy power off both wings. He’s just missing a big serve (and a good attitude a lot of the time).

“But he says he’s been working hard on his fitness between the French Open and now and he’s going for his serve more, firing 11 aces past Jiri Vesely, which is more than this 0.3 aces per game than he usually delivers.

“It’s within Fognini’s ability range to make a real match of this, grass or not, and as the man himself says: ‘Needless to say when the head and the physical both work all is fantastic'.

“Murray should win it with the 3-1 at 3-1 looking the best bet for Murray backers but the +2.5 sets on Fognini at 6-4 is another worthy option with Fognini saying: ;These challenges have always excited me and to play on Centre Court will be a prize'.

“He’s said he’ll go out and be aggressive again and I’m really looking forward to this one.

“The two favourites who we can take on today in one way or another appear to be Kei Nishikori and Gilles Muller with the Japanese looking very shaky indeed in his last match and Muller likely to be fatigued.

“Nishikori’s usually sound backhand was dreadful against Sergiy Stakhovsky and he’ll need better if he’s going to beat Roberto Bautista Agut on Friday.

“And Muller looks vulnerable against Aljaz Bedene who led the Luxembourger by a break in the final set of their Rosmalen clash a few weeks ago and the Brit has improved markedly on the grass this summer.

“The slower grass here at Wimbledon and best-of-five format hasn’t suited Muller in his career and he had to save match points to see off Lukas Rosol in the last round in a long five-setter.

“Bedene looks a viable underdog in this one at 2-1 and a point on him looks the play.

“Finally, Marin Cilic should be too good for Steve Johnson and 3-0 to the Croat is the likely outcome of that clash.”

Sean Calvert's Day Five Tips

• 2pts win Tsonga -3.5 games to beat Querrey at 5-6 at Unibet
• 1.5pts win Fognini +2.5 sets to beat Murray at 6-4 at Unibet
• 1pt win Bedene to beat Muller at 2-1 at Unibet

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