Wednesday’s Racing Tips – One Glance looks over priced at Bath

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It was a disappointing day for both of us on Tuesday with neither of us able to find a winner in what was a pretty dire day of racing.

King's Coronation plugged on but never looked like sustaining a proper challenge down the straight. It was a similar story for Tiger Crusade who made up some ground as they went for home but his effort dwindled out and he didn't stay on as strongly as I thought he would have.

Simiyann might as well have been called Tom Cruise as she was given mission impossible by Josephine Gordon. As stated in the write-up, there was a lack of pace on show, and it turned out to be that way. Having the horse anchored in last place, 20L behind the leading pack was just baffling to see and if she had her horse in the leading pack of five, Simiyann would've had a cracking chance of winning as she was only beaten by around 3L.

Cairnzy's Tips

Sea La Venus 7/2 – Lingfield 2.10

The racing card at Lingfield on Wednesday is lackluster, dominated mainly by low-level Class 6 races. However, one horse caught my eye – the William Haggas-trained Sea La Venus. My selection is bred to be useful, and I don't believe for a second that a mark of 57 is her ceiling.

My selection was only seen once as a juvenile which resulted in an eighth place finish on debut at Kempton last November. She was not heavily backed in the betting that day, and it showed as she was very keen throughout the race, which scumpered any chance of her being involved at the finish. Sea La Venus was put away for a while, before making her seasonal reappearance back in May. She has had four races this term which have resulted in below par efforts each time, and even more concerning she has been a turned over favourite in two of those four outings. Although it may seem as I'm hinting more at the negatives there are some positives to take from a couple of those races.

The race that stands out to me was Sea La Venus's effort two runs back when finishing fifth at Ripon, seven and a half lengths of the eventual winner Godsend. Godsend has since gone on to finish second and land a hat trick of wins, earning him an OR of 80. Kinetic who finished one place ahead of my selection that day has also gone on to finish second and land a hat trick, earning him an OR of 68. The two that head the market arrive in much better form, I'm not denying that for a second but they hardly look like world beaters and I don't think Sea La Venus would need to improve far to shed her maiden in this sort of company.

Connections reach for a first time hood, which I'm hoping will allow my selection to settle better throughout her race as her tendacy to run keen is ultimately her main downfall. Sea La Venus comes with her risks, but I'm more than happy to take that risk with her as 7/2 looks a fair enough price in taking on those two towards the head of the market.

One Glance 7/1 EW – Bath 4.42

Those towards the head of the market don't spark me with much confidence, In particular Bas Bleu who is now 0-8 despite remaining consistent in most outings this term. Current market favourite Divine Presence is probably a worthy favourite on paper given the progressive-looking profile on paper but that one is down slightly in trip and I feel she's better over further as she needed every yard when getting up at Wolverhampton two starts back. Ciara Pearl is another towards the head of the market and she was a winning selection for me on the thread in the past, however, she's carrying top weight in this contest which was enough to put me off altogether.

The horse that I believe is being slightly overlooked in the market is Alan King's One Glance. This lightly raced and completely unexposed filly has only had three outings, all of which have been on the All-Weather surface. Despite being sent off at long odds of 125/1, 100/1, and 40/1 in those runs, there was plenty to like about her performances.

In particular, her second outing saw her finish a respectable third, just seven and a half lengths behind the winner Fairy Glen. That form has since been boosted, as Fairy Glen was beaten by only a short head in a recent Listed event in France. Additionally, the second-place finisher that day, Beeley, has gone on to win by 5 lengths at Ffos Las and is now rated 84.

In One Glance's most recent start, she again finished third, this time beaten only three and a half lengths by the highly regarded Sea Just In Time, who is now rated 94. Interestingly, Beeley was the runner-up in that race as well, further strengthening One Glance's form.

There were more positives to take than negatives in regards to each of those performances, and although she's up against some well-regarded times in this contest I feel 7/1 is a fair EW price in taking on those towards the head of the market.

Rizzel's Tips

Game Breaker 12/1 EW – Hamilton 6.15

Heavy ground is going to cause a lot of problems up at Hamilton and I'm sure we'll see a fair few non-runners across the card, so hopefully not too many will be pulled out for this race as I'm going for an each-way play on Game Breaker.

There are multiple course and distance winners in the lineup, so it's no surprise to see the price that Game Breaker is, but Rebecca Menzies' Soldier's Call filly is only a 3-year-old and has seen her handicap mark dropping this year and with a couple of decent runs in recent weeks, she could be ready to pounce. The ground is still an unknown for Game Breaker despite her having winning form on soft ground as a juvenile and then being 3rd/5 at this track two runs back on soft ground, as it's the most extreme soft ground we can get over here and especially in Scotland, it's going to be testing. However, with her having the form on soft ground I'm willing to take a chance on her, especially with Kaiya Fraser making the trip up to Hamilton for one ride. Kaiya is 2/6 when combined with Rebecca Menzies and he was on board this filly last time out at Pontefract when running on good to firm ground. Her two best RPRs have come on soft ground, so you'd like to think that a testing surface is what she wants, and the dam side of the pedigree would sway towards that as well, so I'm hoping for a bit more today.

Her handicap mark has dropped from 81 to 69 this season, but she showed at Hamilton that she can be competitive off this mark. She tried to make the running that day over 5f and was beaten by a horse who loves the ground and was on a very good handicap mark, shown by him following up ten days later. The runner-up in that race hasn't won since but has been hitting the crossbar and is a horse on a very dangerous mark and one to follow for the next few weeks.

Kaiya is a good apprentice that stables are latching on, so don't be put off by his recent strike rate in the last few weeks. He is predominantly racing in the south, and when he does get the call-up in the northern tracks he tends to do well. He is 3/4 at Hadyock, 2/2 at Catterick, 1/3 at Pontefract and 1/2 from Redcar.

Ashariba 5/2 – Kempton 8.30

I put up Ashariba around a month ago in the Lucky 15 tips and he was a winner that day when not too popular in the market. I thought he won much easier than the winning margin suggests and I'm happy enough to follow up again in today's race off a higher handicap mark.

I mentioned when I tipped him up previously that the form of the Sandown race looked solid at the time and it will work out well in the future. That has sort of been proven with Ashariba doing the business on his next run, as well as the fifth and third both winning next time out, as well as the seventh-placed horse winning on his next two starts. As far as form goes from a Class 4 race, it looks bulletproof.

Last time out, Ashariba travelled like a dream around Chelmsford under Tom Marquand who sat next to the rail for the entirety of the race. Due to him sitting on the rail the horse didn't have the gaps when the leader was starting to fall backwards, which allowed the Godolphin horse (who runs in this race today) to get ahead of steam and put in a challenge to Ashariba when Tom managed to get the room. It was a match between the two and it was just a neck victory for the David Menuisier horse, but with a clearer passage, I think it could've easily been a length or slightly more, as Tom looked well in control at the line. Since then, the runner-up has won next time out as a 4/7F should do, winning by 5L. The Godolphin horse is 1lb better off from when they last met and gets Oisin Murphy on board which is an upgrade on SDS, but the extra furlong they contest today looks to be more favourable for Ashariba.

Obviously, there are more than two horses in this race and the likes of Al Ameed and New Kings Road have to be a concern. The latter gets the very talented Joe Leavy on board who claims 5lbs and puts his in-form horse on a low weight and the Simon & Ed Crisford horse is lightly raced and ran well at Windsor last time out.

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