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David O'Meara showed that he was correct by sticking to his guns with Strong with the idea of running him over 7f.
He was too keen on his seasonal reappearance and stable debut when running over 7f, but he was better suited to today's race at Leicester.
Giselles Defence should also have been suited by how his race unfolded as he is better over shorter, and they didn't go a good gallop, but he looked to lack the speed, but stayed on well, but didn't have enough track to run them down.
Clearance – Newton Abbot 4.05
I have decided to avoid the flat racing for today as nothing caught my eye, but one horse at Newton Abbot did catch my eye, and I will happily have a bet on Clearance.
The 11-year-old might find a couple of the younger horses too good for him, but there is a strong chance that he can roll back the years and win this off a very teasing handicap mark of 103.
Michael Blake has a good strike rate when combining with Harry Cobden (18% from 65 rides), and the way that Harry is riding at the moment and with him picking and choosing when he rides, gives the impression that he only takes the rides on horses who have a serious chance of winning. Harry is 3/9 in the last fortnight and is 7/19 this season (37% SR). With Clearance running off a very low handicap mark, it's like the trainer has told Cobden he is close to winning a race as he managed to win this time last year off a mark of 112, which is 9lbs higher than today's rating, and with how this race is likely to be run, it could set it up perfectly for the old lad who ran well at this track a month ago.
Clearance is a bit of a course specialist, with six wins from thirteen attempts, which is an obvious plus.
GambleAware
4.22 nottingham
Boyfroend 13/8
Hi guys
Having a good week feeling pretty well as the side effects wear off a bit before my next and final round on Monday so I’ve had a look at the Derby field and tried to find a bet worthwhile chancing.
A lot of picking a Derby fancy is guess work as we don’t really know if a horse will stay the trip until they’ve run over it. The only thing that helps is to look at breeding and even then it’s still only a guide but at least it tends to narrow things down.
There are 2 readings that are calculated on horses that give them a score which tells you whether a horse is suitable to a particular trip, they are Dosage Index (DI) and Centre of Distribution (CD).
The average score of the winners of the Derby in the past 10 years are DI 0.75 and a CD of -0.019.
Now you might ask what does that mean.
Ideally a Derby runner should be around 1.00 (DI) and a 0.00 (CD).
If a horse has a higher than 1.00 CD eg 2.00 then he is more suited to sprint distances, likewise if his CD id greater than 0.00 he has more speed than stamina.
The winners of the Derby over the past 10 years have clearly relied on stamina more than speed with the figures shown as the 2 scores are below the threshold
There will always be some that buck the trend eg Golden Horn who had a DI of 1.38 and a CD of 0.29 but still managed to stay the 12f trip well even though his scores said he was more suited to 8-10f races, hence why this is only a guide.
I’ll go into this years runners figures and will also put some trends up to help in a bit.
Delacroix
DI 1.18. CD 0.29
Current fav and the choice of Ryan Moore.
His sire is Dubawi who has yet to sire a winner of a Derby in 14 attempts but he did manage to break his duck in the Oaks last year.
However although he’s unbeaten this season he’s not really done anything imo to warrant his current price.
His win lto was run 3secs slower than the maiden over the same trip and I also don’t think he will stay.
Ruling Court
DI 1.1.00 CD 0.11
Sired by Justify who sired last year’s winner and his dam’s sire is Derby winner High Chaparral so you would think based on that he should stay the trip.
He’s the Guineas winner and the form of that race was well and truly franked by Field of Gold in the Irish version.
His OR of 121 is the 2nd highest rating in the past 10 years heading into a Derby and Will Buick is bullish of his chances.
But he’s never run beyond a mile which is a slight concern and many experts are saying he won’t stay as he’s quick out of the gates and will end up with the pace which could burn him out.
Pride of Arras
DI 1.00. CD 0.05
Sired by New Bay whose best trip was 10f.
Dante winner on only his 2nd start so must have much more to come. But the Dante itself was the slowest run in the past 10 years by almost 2secs so I don’t think it was the strongest of renewals and turned into a sprint.
He should stay the trip though as he has stamina on the dam side but I just think he’ll need to find more to win this.
Lion in Winter
DI 1.09. CD 0.08
By Derby winner Sea the Stars out of a Lope De Vega mare.
Top 2yr old beating Ruling Court with ease in the Acomb but injury meant he missed the latter end of last season and the early part of this.
His odds going up and down like a yo-yo can’t fill any backers with confidence and drawn 19 will he be able to settle being on the outside.
Those are the 4 at the top of the market of them I like Ruling Court and I think he may go off fav so I’ve backed him now but I also like another that I haven’t mentioned at an ew price.
Stanhope Gardens
DI 0.80. CD -0.11
Scores much more in line with the 10 year trend.
By Ghaiyyath who was best over 10f but did win over 12f, his dam Pure Art gives him the stamina required.
Was only beaten a neck by Delacroix over a mile last season.
Hasn’t had the best of preps but the yard were desperate to get a run into him so set up a run at Salisbury which may have been a non event but I just think they wanted him in the Derby and hopefully the run he’s had has put him right for the big day.
Currently 16/1 ew 4 places.
BOL
get the value 4.05 NB well done all winners yesterday
boyfriend 4.22 nap
seraphic 4.35
minsotta 4.55 ew
nr
Ipanemabeach 4.45 ew
colter bay 5.50 ew well done all winners today