I didn't get the time to watch Topofthecotswolds, but I did manage to catch the final two runners, and jumping was a big issue for both.
Atlanta Brave looked atrocious, and when he went backwards, he went backwards very quickly and was eventually pulled up. One of the worst performances I've seen from a horse I've put up in recent memory.
Tapley probably could have been placed, as he finished fifth after jumping quite a few hurdles in poor fashion. A better jumping performance would see him much closer, but I did expect more from a horse who was on a good handicap mark and back in a grade he has been successful in, in the past.
Doctor Midas 6/1 – Ludlow 3.08
I would probably be interested in backing Butler's Brief if he had his recent 8lb claimer on board, as this ground at Ludlow might become very testing and he is a horse who will handle the going, but given he has done his best runs with a claimer on board, he might be too high in the handicap when he is not riding.
I thought Doctor Midas was worth a shot for Henrietta Knight, as he looked like a decent handicapper for the future when trained by Nicky Henderson. He finished second at this track on his last start for Nicky, and wasn't given a hard time by Nico (surprise), but stayed on nicely under very little pressure and was ahead of Swift Jet. The form of that race looks solid as the winner has been placed in better races since, and I can't see a reverse in the form with the Richard Phillips runner as Doctor Midas looked well on top of the third-placed horse.
He didn't make the most encouraging stable debuts last time out, but I think putting him back up to a longer trip will give him a much better chance on his handicap debut.
Carrigeen Castle 18/1 EW (Skybet 3pl) – Ludlow 3.38
It's strange to see a Micky Hammond runner this far down England, as he does not send many runners to tracks that are this far away from where he trains. He has previously sent 13 to Ludlow and hasn't managed to secure a win yet, but he has had seven inside the top three, so it's not like he is sending total no-hopers to the track.
I do try and avoid Micky's runners as he is probably the North English version of Evan Williams who will try and get his horses well handicapped then put them in a race they can win, but I can't get away with this runner as he is starting to become well handicapped and the fact they are willing to travel this distance gives me confidence that this might be the time to catch him.
He likes soft ground, which could be on the cards as Ludlow is expecting a heavy couple of showers in the early hours of the morning, and despite him not running well on his previous three runs, that doesn't mean too much when being attached to this yard. Alice Stevens is making the journey down for the one ride and knocks off a further 3lbs, putting Carrigeen Castle on a bottom weight of 10st 13lbs, and below his last winning mark of 109.
Jupiter Des Mottes 22/1 EW – Perth 2.48
I put up Jupiter Des Mottes in the Aintree Grade 1 novice hurdle over 3m, but he was withdrawn on the morning due to the ground. I thought he had an each-way chance in that race due to Lucinda's record in recent years, so I'm going to keep my opinion and back him for this Listed race.
On all known form, he has it all to prove, but I knew that going into the Grade 1 at Aintree. However, the form did hold up better than expected as the horse who beat him last time out went on to finish third in the Grade 1 at Aintree, so there is now substance, and given Lucinda Russell has done extremely well in that particular race, they were clearly expecting an improved performance by Jupiter Des Mottes over the longer trip.
This race has some of the faces from the Aintree Grade 1, so it's another good race. Mister Meggit is turning up, but he didn't quite see the race out last time out, and Minella Rescue is here, who stayed on very strongly at the finish. But, it's interesting that Lucinda has opted for this race as she did win it with Giovinco a couple of years ago, so she does know the level of horse it takes to win, and they would be foolish to go for this and potentially blow the horses handicap mark, unless they firmly believed he is a top notch horse.
GambleAware