Once again, going for a newcomer did come back to bite me.
High Degree has a high-class pedigree and will be a decent horse, but despite being strong in the market, he wasn't ready the first time out.
I think he was match-ready, but he wasn't street-wise, and you knew that as soon as he left the stalls. Tom had to roust him along early to get a position, and when Tom wanted him to try and challenge for the win, he was wandering around and making it difficult to get into top gear and chase the leader.
Abduction 4/1 (1pt, most main bookies) – Ayr 3.30
My first fancy on Wednesday is Abduction, who has a very strong chance of winning this race, but it all boils down to whether he'll stay the trip or not.
He has run over a mile once before in his career, which does ring alarm bells, as he is now a seven-year-old, so you'd have thought if he was to want this trip, he would've been tried over it well before now. However, based on his performance at Haydock last time out over seven furlongs, I can see why Jim Goldie has opted for this route, as he was staying on strongly in a decent handicap.
He is well handicapped on older pieces of form for previous trainers, and he hasn't exactly hit the ground running this year, until last time out. The money was quite strong for him, Tom Marquand was in the saddle, but he was beaten by his stablemate, who was ridden by Paul Mulrennan, who would've had the pick of the Goldie runners. Today, Lauren Young takes the ride, and even though this is another gamble by backing a 7lb claimer in the saddle, she has acquitted herself nicely in recent weeks, getting winners for this yard, so I think her claim could be a big reason if Abduction were to win this race.
He ran to an RPR of 85 last time out, and has gone up 2lbs, now rated 78. So removing 7lbs from his new mark makes him well handicapped off a mark of 71, and I think the only reason why he is the odds he is, is because of the unknown factor of the trip.
Ukantango 10/3 (1pt) – Warwick 4.15
Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen are a potent combination, and with how high of confidence this pair has with a great season last year, and a fantastic start to the new season, backing Ukantango, who is now on a very tempting mark, is a good idea.
This horse has dropped down the handicap over the last couple of years, but has found himself lower on his hurdles mark than his chase mark, which is a tad surprising. He is 2/7 as a hurdler, but 0/5 over fences, yet his handicap mark over hurdles has been the one which is 5lbs lower than his chase rating, which is crazy to believe. Based on that, the handicapper has given him a fantastic chance of winning another race.
He was placed as a chaser on three occasions, but the majority of them look better than what they actually were, as they were in small field events, so technically they aren't impressive at all. He returned to hurdling on his return to racing in April from 349 days away from the track, finishing 3rd/5, 7.25L behind the winner. Sean wasn't on board that day, but returns in the saddle now, and given he will have needed that run, back in a weaker race, I think he can go very well today for this in-form couple.
GambleAware