If you watched Von Trotter's race, you were sort of expecting the defeat.
It took a lifetime for Von Trotter to go past the leader, and when he did, you could see that the horse from the rear was flying. That horse went on to beat Von Trotter by a head, and that was a painful loss, but you could have seen it coming.
Rating, on the other hand, ran a belter. It looked like the main market fancies, when tipped up, struggled with the fast ground. Rating got a lovely position towards the front, and she pulled clear at the line under Rossa Ryan, who is brilliant around Chepstow.
Constitution River 6/4 – York 3.35
You cannot believe a word that Aidan and Ryan say when the pair of them mention that this horse is the best they've trained/rode, but he definitely is one of the best.
It's going to be a risky one taking on Ombudsman, as he is the champ at this trip and one of the best horses on the planet. However, I think we've seen some very encouraging signs from Constitution River, and enough to warrant him being a bet against the Godolphin horse.
Constitution River won the Coral Eclipse last time out; it wasn't a vintage renewal, but the manner in which he won was all I needed to see. He recorded an RPR of 128 for that success, which is a number miles clear of what Ombudsman achieved at this moment in his career.
I think he is a proper grinder at this trip, so the fast pace which will be set by a couple of pacemakers will make this run suit both fancied horses.
This has all the hallmarks of a classic.
Small Fry 5/2 – York 4.10
I don't see how you could be against Small Fry in this race. He is not exactly a short price, and I'd say there is plenty of juice in this price.
I can honestly see him going off at least 7/4, because the form is there and we know he has the ability to win races like this. He probably should have won at Glorious Goodwood, but he didn't get the clearest of passages through the race. Despite that, he was only 0.75 lengths behind the winner, and he was staying on at the finish.
The only issue in this race is that it's a new track and it's a fairly big field, so congestion might be a problem again.
Call Margot 22/1 (EW, 5pl) – York 4.45
I am really not a fan of the big-field sprints at York; there is always a huge bias to one side of the track, and I'm always on the wrong side.
However, I've got to give Call Margot another chance. I've tipped her up three times (I think), and to say she's not won for us is crazy. She should have won at Epsom, but had a nightmare passage through the field, and when you see that the winner has won two times since and is much higher in the weights, you've got to believe Call Margot is on a good handicap mark.
It appears that she needs some kind of juice in the ground, so with the forecast rain of around 9mm from now till the time of the race, that might be enough to see her have a squeak. She's 22/1, and I've got to take a chance, as I know when it clicks, she has a big race in her.
GambleAware