Edgewater Drive 12/1 (EW, 3pl) – Nottingham 1.16
With no real standout candidate in this race, and no horse turning up at Nottingham in solid form, I think this is a race where you can take a chance on an outsider.
Originally, I was going to chance the Irish raider from the Ms Claire O'Connell stable. She has only sent four runners to the UK in the last five years, and is 1/1 this season. I think he is one of the most likely winners, as we often see that Irish handicap form does translate well. He is 5/1, which is short enough considering the favourite is 4/1, and I thought 12/1 on Edgewater Drive was interesting.
My selection won this race last year after showing very little in his runs prior. He hasn't run a lot this season, with just three outings all coming within the last month or so. He has taken a similar approach to last year, by running at Leicester a couple of days ago and then arriving at Nottingham. He didn't cover himself in glory when he ran at Leicester last year before winning here, and he didn't run a great race the other day either.
However, the money came in for him when he won this race last year, so it will be interesting to see if that happens again. He is running off the same handicap mark as twelve months ago, and also gets a 3lb claimer in the saddle. It's a risk given his form, but I found it interesting that they are going for a similar tactic this year.
His win in this race last year was a career best, so the track might also be a big thing for him.
Centigrade 7/4 – Nottingham 2.16
If there's any time that Centigrade will win a Listed race, this is the race. It looks extremely weak as far as Class1 races go, and given that he is 2/2 on heavy ground and was impressive when making all at Haydock, he looks the right favourite.
I was expecting to see a slightly shorter price available on Centigrade, so I do like the odds of 7/4. He isn't exactly proven at this level, but the way he runs through heavy ground like it's nothing makes him a very strong candidate for this.
He won a Class 2 at Haydock by nearly two lengths last time out whilst carrying 9st 10lbs, so I think he is ready for this next step up in his career.
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