Saturday’s Nap was a non-runner. Nothing ventured, nothing gained and all that. It’s a new week, and with the drop down to publishing three times per week, I’ve kept my powder dry over the first few days of the week, so we’re starting on Wednesday.
| Hereford - 14:00 |
Ultra Beat |
11/2 |
The meeting in focus on Wednesday is the one at Hereford, where ahead of the 14:00 contest, **Ultra Beat** stands out as a decent bet at early odds of 11/2.
Lightly raced and far from fully exposed, the six-year-old will arrive at the Herefordshire venue off the back of a very pleasing chase debut, performing as if he’d definitely be up to taking a race of this nature before long. Maybe today’s the day.
Runs for an in-form trainer who does very well at this track
Before we go much further, I must talk about the fact that Henry Daly has an impressive record with runners of this nature at Hereford.
At this venue, the in-form trainer, who has a 26.32% strike rate in the last fortnight, has won with 14 of his last 23 chasers that fit a similar profile to **Ultra Beat** (geldings aged six and above, running between February and September). Such a stat should not be ignored.
Back to what this horse did last time out. Making his chasing debut, off the back of a 175-day break, the gelding, who ran just four times over the smaller obstacles, finished second (of 14) at Bangor, running over three miles.
He kept on well in that Bangor race, so today’s step up in trip should suit, while it must be said that this is a race that contains less strength in depth on paper. On that evidence, he should be a serious player here.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about an unexposed sort who performed admirably the first time out over fences (and in a better race). Daly’s runner ought to have learned plenty that day and should be bang there for a trainer that does well with these types at Hereford.
For my money, the six-year-old deserves to be a good bit closer to the market leader, leaving me to conclude that odds of 11/2 are absolutely worth taking.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 66 Naps) has a running P/L of +£85.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
