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My suspicions about Little Miss India thriving in an easier race were far from confirmed yesterday, and so the current tricky run continues. Perhaps Wednesday will bring a turnaround in fortunes.
| Kempton 19:15 |
Ten Dimes |
9/1 |
On Wednesday, I’m primarily interested in the 19:15 contest at Kempton, a Class 4 affair over ten furlongs.
There are a few last-time-out winners who warrant respect, but for my money, Ten Dimes is the horse to be on, especially at early odds of 9/1.
Sure, John Gosden’s runner didn’t fire in a Listed contest at Yarmouth a month ago, but she was seen to decent effect at Kempton a month before that at this level, so we shouldn’t be surprised if she significantly improves on her latest effort.
Recency bias allows for generous odds
Recency bias is at play all the time in this game and this is very much a case in point. At the end of the day, had she not run in that Listed race last time out and instead came straight into this race off the back of her recent course second, the mount of Rab Havlin would almost certainly be a much shorter price.
On the evidence of her last Kempton run, she’ll appreciate this slight drop back in trip, while the form of her June second at Chelmsford, over this trip and at this level, also tells me that she can be a serious player here. She finished second (of 12) that day, beating a now 82-rated Listed runner-up into third. That form definitely counts for something in my eyes.
Gosden has had his string in decent form of late, while he’s also no stranger to winning at Kempton, especially with horses of this nature.
Lightly raced and clearly at home on the all-weather, the filly, who is right up there on relevant speed ratings, is quite simply a more likely winner of this than odds of 9/1 would have us believe. Such odds offer value for money to those who seek it.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£10.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
