Despite the step up in trip looking in favour, yesterday’s Nap found nothing when push came to shove and to be honest, was a no-show. Moving on to today, where the opening race at Beverley is the port of call.
| Beverley - 13:40 |
Coloane |
16/1 |
Coloane, running for Roger Fell in the hands of Connor Beasley, looks to have her conditions this afternoon, with decent ground to run on and no shortage of pace to aim in what will be a 17-runner affair.
Last time out, the filly finished what appears to be a disappointing 10th (of 14), but it’s likely that she had plenty of running left to give having made headway around the two-furlong pole, only for a wall of horses to prevent her from getting a clear run, before her jockey eased down inside the final furlong. I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the four-year-old on that basis, absolutely not.
She can come with a late run if avoiding traffic problems
If getting a clear run here, then she’s likely to do much better. After all, a decent pace should be on here, with several who like to go forward, meaning that we could see something of a battle on for the lead, resulting in a collapse towards the death. This would suit Beasley’s mount.
A mile winner on decent ground at Pontefract in July, I’d argue that she’s still reasonably handicapped. Let’s face it, she twice finished second on the all-weather from marks in the 60’s last season, while she also finished fourth (of 12) in a better race than this at Newmarket a year ago from higher in the weights.
The way she won at Pontefract in July, scoring with authority, suggested that she’d have more to give, and I really don’t think a mark of 52 is her ceiling, especially in races like this where she has plenty in her favour.
If we include the fact that Roger Fell has a decent strike rate (14.29%) at Beverley, then odds of 16/1 really do look on the large side.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is -£80 (since switching to being published here rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
Hi Bradley, this isn’t a negative post about your selections or form as I feel the headline tipsters have an unenviable task.
Though I do think calling the column Nap of the Day is wide of the mark. A Nap should be your strongest or most confident pick where the odds may not be as attractive but the chances of success are fairly decent.
The column would make more sense if it was called, ‘Value Pick of the Day’, as you look for value by getting early generous odds that come in, this is a long term strategy that may not work for most as they’ll not follow on a daily basis.
Just my thoughts, good luck👍
Now watching your Nap steam home at 16/1 😂
Thanks for your comment, I appreciate your opinion.
I would say that I agree with a Nap being your best bet of the day, though “best bet of the day” simply isn’t the same for everyone. I completely understand that for some people (likely most) a Nap is the bet most likely to win. For me this is not the case. Bets most likely to win rarely represent value for money. More often than not, such bets represent the exact opposite of value for money. As I’m sure you can tell, I don’t think in terms of predictions. I’m not looking to predict the most likely winner, as I think (based on over a decade of doing this day in, day out) that such an approach is heavily flawed. Some people agree, some don’t, which is the case with most things. In fact, I know lots of people disagree, which is fine.
As far as I’m concerned, the NAP of the day is the best bet, which for me, is the horse that carries the most value as I see it. On this subject, I’m very much of the opinion that nobody really needs me (or any other writer) to tell them that strong market leaders have a decent chance, but I may help the odd person to uncover a horse that has more of a chance than the early odds suggest. You’re right, this is very much a long term approach, absolutely, but I think any regular punter (someone who bets on a regular basis) should be thinking long term. To be honest, even if people are reading occasionally because they want to back something every now and then, why not back something at a decent price that you may not otherwise notice? And I’m not suggesting that I’m some sort of trailblazing genius, uncovering hidden gems that no other person in the world has considered day in, day out, but I’m sure you get what I mean.
I like that the column is called “Nap of the Day” as this is how I believe a “Nap of the Day” should be. I know that I’m going against the grain in that sense, but that’s fine by me. I’m confident in my approach and I like to think that I may offer something different for the most part. Having said that, I’m not in charge of column titles/themes, so it may be that at some point, those tasked with making such decisions decide to change the title/theme, I don’t know. Until then, or until told otherwise, I will continue to do my best and operate in the same way.
Thanks again for sharing your thoughts, I’m always happy to reply and engage with such comments, and I will always do so honestly :)
Fair enough, we’ll have to disagree on this one.
I’ve had a bit of success backing some of your bigger priced runners in the place market.
Good luck with the column 👍
Is it me or as the stats spiral downwards the prices quoted are getting bigger.
If so are you being influenced by the losses and chasing them ?
It is you, yes. Yesterday’s bet was the shortest price (since the switch to creating a new daily article) yet at 4/1. My approach isn’t changing, I’m not exclusively putting up double-figure prices, I’m merely recommending horses that I feel are the most generously priced in the early betting. Sometimes that means putting up a horse at 16/1, other times it’ll mean putting up a horse at 4/1. It may even mean recommending something shorter than 4/1, and I’m sure at some point it’ll mean suggesting something at even larger odds than 16/1.
It’s also worth mentioning that most of the horses put up have shortened, some dramatically, suggesting that much of the time, I’m ahead of the curve. In my experience, do that long term and you’ll arrive at a profit. As always, you’re free to disagree and see things whichever way you wish.
Thanks for your comment.