Bank Holiday Monday didn't exactly go according to plan, but I do think there were a couple of very poor rides on both of my selections.
Paul Townend didn't look like he was too bothered about the race, and never put the horse in the race. The horse didn't jump particularly well, but knowing he is a good front runner, it was a shame to see him so far off the pace.
The claimer in the National on my fancy was fairly awful too. Considering there was a huge swing in the weights with Dunboyne, who was pressing for the win over the last couple of fences, it makes you question why Final Orders was pulled up. I watched the jockey, and to be blunt, he looks clueless in this big field, evidently out of his depth. That was a poor call on my part, but it is easy to be drawn into backing horses with claimers on board, as it makes them a lot better handicapped.
Topofthecotswolds 8/1 EW – Kelso 3.40
I think it's worth giving Topofthecotswolds one more chance for his latest trainer Ollie Pears. He was a previous selection on his most recent start where he did run better than he previous had since moving to this stable, but he didn't appear to stay the 3m 2f, so maybe the drop back to 2m 4f on an even lower handicap mark will be the key to unlocking a win.
On old pieces of form, this would be a no contest, but that's not what horse racing is and living off past exploits can often be the road to the poorhouse, but I did think we saw a bit more last time out, and it's a good indicator that Brian Hughes remains in the saddle as he has a good record for the yard over the jumps and he is riding well in recent months.
This isn't a particularly strong race, and the main horses aren't good horses, but are fancied in the market due to being in better form than the others.
Atlanta Brave 4/1 – Hereford 6.13
Backing horses on old pieces of form might get me in trouble come 7pm on Tuesday, as the second selection of the day is being backed due to him being well handicapped from a couple of years ago.
It's hard to believe that this horse didn't progress when transitioning to fences, as he was a decent novice hurdler, but for one reason or another, it hasn't quite worked out. He has run some good races over fences when being rated in the low 120s, so he is definitely a horse who has ability, and if it all clicks on the day, he can definitely come away with the win.
I think he has been labelled as a horse who needs softer ground, but given he was a PTP winner on good ground, it might be the case that he doesn't need bottomless ground and will enjoy the ground at Hereford. He is a strong stayer, and that has always been the case since he won at Hereford in two novice races over hurdles, with emphasis on stamina being the main attribute punters walked away with.
He is running off a mark of 112, which is ridiculously low given he was rated 127 last season, and has recorded RPR career bests of 130 when running off a mark of 121. He has had a recent wind surgery, which is an added thing that wil hopefully help him return to form, as he is still only a seven-year-old, so has plenty of time to get his act together and progress.
Tapley 8/1 EW – Hereford 7.13
A horse who has been running in some of the big pot handicaps over hurdles in Tapley, but every time he has dropped down to Class 4 company he has walked out victorious, so I think he will find this company a lot easier than his previous targets.
A horse can often look out of form, but when they have been competing in much better handicaps, it's always a tougher task to get the wins, and that is what Tapley has been part of. He has run well for a long way in some of these handicaps, but he is still probably not good enough to land a big pot, unless the quality of the race is not as strong as normal. That doesn't mean he is not a good horse, as when he has dropped down to his Class 4 type of races he has won 2/2 in handicaps, and the latest was off a mark of 120 (1lb higher than today) and Elizabeth Gale taks off a further 7lbs today, so the horse should have a solid chance.
He needs good ground and a sharp track, and based on the weather forecast, he should be getting both, so I value his chances quite high for this race.
GambleAware