It wasn't a great showing from Zatsgood, and I think it's clear to say that he did not stay the longer trip.
I honestly believed that he was going to improve for the extra yardage, but he was going up and down in one spot. Eventually, he didn't progress any further and got tired. Poor performance from him, especially as he was still strong at the top of the market.
Francisco's Piece 7/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Carlisle 7.42
Stall 1 would normally be a big problem for a sprint race at Carlisle, especially if the horse was not a front-runner. The tight nature of the track means that if you break slowly, you find yourself with a tough task of finding gaps which rarely open. However, when the ground is soft at Carlisle, the jockeys tend to come to the near-side rail, leaving plenty of room down the middle of the track for a run. That is why I am happy to take my chances on Francisco's Piece.
It will still be a tough race for my selection, as he is carrying a heavy weight of 10st 1lbs on soft ground. But, if you look at the level of races he was in last year, this has to be deemed as a huge step down in the quality of horses. He was constantly running in Class 2 races last year, not winning any, but running to a good standard in a lot of them.
We know his best form has come on testing ground, so the soft ground with further rain expected to fall, has to be a big positive. His recent run at Catterick was a poor one, but there are excuses for him. It was his first run in 165 days, and he bled from the nose, so you've got to be able to give him another chance on the hope that everything is fine.
I believe that horses that are out of form, but are dropping down in grade, get overlooked in the market. My fancy is 15/2 in the betting, and has seen a little bit of his price being nibbled at from when the market opened up. With him getting his favoured ground, there's still juice in the price.
I was interested in Hundred Caps, but the ground put me off backing him. He was unlucky in a race I tipped up Copper Knight at Beverley, so I'll be watching with a keen interest on his future races.
GambleAware